Showing posts with label house-trends. Show all posts
Showing posts with label house-trends. Show all posts

Friday, October 05, 2018

How does "affordability" (sales price + interest rate) influence market direction

Greetings from fabulous Mississauga!

I received a couple of insightful questions from an avid reader and thought I would share the questions and my thoughts on them

The questions were:

Mark,

I really enjoy receiving your emails with the latest POS properties and all the real estate information that you include.

I have a couple of questions:

     1. The average house price fluctuation we see on a yearly basis, is that price when the property is sold or is it the closing date? This would shift the cycle by a couple months depending.

      2. I can’t help wonder the influence of interest rates on price. I have a suspicion that “affordability” (sales price + interest rate) has a lot to do with the market direction? Have you ever graphed the house prices vs. interest rate?

Keep the great information flowing!!

Thanks again

BB

My answer was:

Hello BB

Thank you for your email.

Regarding your first point, the sold price is as of the date the property was sold, not the closing date.   

Your second point about the relationship between interest rates and prices is interesting.  I suspect here is a relationship, but not sure how closely one follows the other.  When rates increase it seems there is often a slight pause or lull in sales and then it continues again.  On the other hand, sometimes when rates go up there is a sudden surge in sales as the people who are pre-approved and locked into the lower rate end up purchasing.  When rates are trending downwards and there is a drop in the mortgage rate or an expected drop in rates, purchasers often go into a holding pattern waiting for rates to bottom out.   It really depends upon the “mood” of the market and which direction rates are going.  I’ll see what I can find with the numbers and let you know if I find a good relationship and high confidence value.

You also mention affordability and market direction.  Yes, I believe there is a relationship between these two factors too.  Again, there seems to be a tipping point where when rates and prices get too high, affordability becomes an issue and the market slows down.  The converse is also true.  I’ve found that the trend and the mood of the real estate marketplace and the press has more impact on the market direction than the actual numbers.  There are many instances of fear influencing the market far more than a change in interest rate or price.  When the government introduced the foreign buyers tax which ultimately affects less than 4% of all sales, our market collapsed.  Conversely, the fear of missing out on the rapid and sustained rise in prices caused many people to get into the market sooner than they otherwise would have (or should have) during many periods over the past 30 years.

Depending on where we are on the “Market Cycle”  greatly affects the marketplace.  To read more, see this page: http://www.mississauga4sale.com/Market-Emotions-Cycle.htm  I see that I need to update that page!

There are many more aspects to the real estate market that one can analyze. 

All very interesting factors to consider! J

Thank you,
Mark

Sunday, January 24, 2016

Bank of Canada leaves key interest rate unchanged at 1/2%

Greetings from Fabulous Mississauga!
The Bank of Canada leaves key interest rate unchanged at 1/2% most anticipated interest rate announcement was on January 20, 2016 and the decision was that the Bank of Canada will be maintaining its overnight rate at 0.5%.  This means there will be no changes to prime rate. 
What does this mean to you, the consumer?  It's likely the major banks in Canada will leave their prime rates that they charge you at 2.70%
The last increase of the prime rate was September 2010 and this the longest stretch of no increase in history. 
Economists have been predicting that the prime rate will remain unchanged until sometime in 2016 and some even longer than that.  There are others who are predicting no change for 5 years or longer.
Many have been predicting the prime rate will increase 'next year' every year for the past 5 years now.
Personally, I believe that the low interest rates that we are currently experiencing are generational.  What I mean is that I predict we will see rates at or near their current levels up to about 5% for the next 15 years.  It's already been 5 years of low interest rates and it will likely remain this way for the next 15, a total of 20 years, a full generation!  That's my prediction.

You can still find discounts on variable rate mortgages as low as prime -0.5% with most banks offering about prime -0.10%. 
You can find 5 year fixed mortgages as low as 2.6% and even slightly lower sometimes.

I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!
All the Best!
Mark
A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate

RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987

BUS 905-828-3434
FAX 905-828-2829  CELL 416-520-1577
mark@mississauga4sale.com

Mississauga4Sale.com


Monday, June 08, 2015

June 2015 Market Watch Report for Toronto and GTA - sales figures are in for last month

Hello from Beautiful Mississauga!

The Toronto Real Estate Board released its latest figures for the Toronto and GTA real estate marketplace.
  • The Average price for last month was $649,599 (it was $613,933 the previous month) and this represents aver a 11% increase compared to the same month last year- see graph of prices here
  • Sales volumes were 11,706 (it was 8,940 last month) and this is UP 6.3% from the same month last year 
  •  The Bank of Canada Prime Lending Rate shocked the experts and lowered the rate to 2.75% in January 2015 read more


Read more about average prices and read the TREB full price and data report below.


This is the press release from TREB

All the best!
Mark



A New Sales Record for the Month of May


June 3, 2015 -- Toronto Real Estate Board President Paul Etherington announced 11,706 sales reported by Greater Toronto REALTORS® in May 2015. This result was up by 6.3 per cent in comparison to 11,013 sales reported in May 2014. For the TREB market area as a whole, sales were up for all major housing types. However, in the City of Toronto, where the supply of low-rise listings has been constrained, sales were down for detached homes.


“During my tenure as TREB President over the past year, it is clear to me that ownership housing remains top of mind as a quality long-term investment for GTA households. This is why, despite a shortage of listings in some market segments, we experienced a record number of sales reported through TREB’s MLS® System for the month of May,” said Mr. Etherington.


Record May transactions, coupled with a dip in the number of homes available for sale, resulted in strong price growth. The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite Benchmark was up by 8.9 per cent year over year in May. The MLS® HPI uses benchmark homes to estimate price growth. This allows for an “apples to apples” comparison of price growth that is not affected by changes in the mix of sales activity.


The average selling price for all home types combined in May 2015 was up by 11 per cent annually to $649,599. The higher annual rate of average price growth compared to the MLS® HPI Composite Benchmark points to the fact that the proportion of high-end home sales continued to be greater compared to 2014.


“Tight market conditions, especially for singles, semis and town homes in the GTA, have resulted in strong price growth regardless of the price metric being considered. With no relief so far on the listings front, expect similar rates of price growth as we move through the remainder of 2015. At this point, a number of months where listings growth outstrips sales growth would be required to satisfy pent-up demand,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Director of Market Analysis.


I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!
All the Best!
Mark
A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate

RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987

BUS 905-828-3434
FAX 905-828-2829  CELL 416-520-1577
mark@mississauga4sale.com

Mississauga4Sale.com
  • Thinking of selling your home in the next 3 to 6 months?  Would you like a Complimentary & Quick Over-The-Net Home Evaluation ?
    www.mississauga4sale.com/internet-evaluation.htm
  • Power of Sales and Foreclosureswww.mississauga4sale.com/Power-Sales-Bank-Sales-Alert-Request.htm
  • If you have not already signed up to receive my monthly real estate newsletter, you may do so here: On-Line Real Estate Newsletter sign up
    www.mississauga4sale.com/popupquestion.htm
  • See seasonal housing patternswww.mississauga4sale.com/TREBprice.htm
  • Would you like me to send you a desk or wall Calendar?
    www.mississauga4sale.com/Calendar-Order-Form.htm
 


Monday, January 06, 2014

House Price Trends in Mississauga and Toronto GTA

Hello from beautiful Mississauga!

House prices will very likely increase in the next 12 months.  All things being equal and similar to previous years in real estate, the market should increase between March and June by about 3% to 7%

You can see the seasonal increases at this link:

http://www.mississauga4sale.com/TREBavg1995date.htm

We expect this spring market to increase by about the same as previous year increases.

We do not see mortgage interest rates increasing for at least a year, maybe another 18 months, the mortgage market is soft and the economy would not be able to absorb a sudden increase in rates.

I don't think you should ever delay your house purchase decision, unless you have a very good reason to do so. The sooner you get into the real estate market, the more money you will be putting towards your mortgage principal and paying down your mortgage, you will be increasing your equity and the less money you will waste spending on rent.

Benefits to home ownership:

http://www.mississauga4sale.com/psychology-ownership.htm

I hope this helps.

Please let me know if you have any other questions or require further information.

Thank you,

Mark

Friday, April 06, 2012

Latest Toronto GTA real estate marketplace from the Toronto Real Estate Board April 2012

This is a summary of the latest GTA real estate marketplace from the Toronto Real Estate Board

Average price in March as $504,117 up 10% compared to March 2011 and volume of sale are up about 8%


See the graphs at my site


Read the full report below.

GTA REALTORS(r) Report Monthly Resale Housing Market Figures

Toronto, April 4, 2012 - Greater Toronto REALTORS(r) reported 9,690 sales through the TorontoMLS System in March 2012. This result was up by almost eight per cent in comparison to the 8,986 deals reported during the same period in 2011.

"The GTA resale market has not suffered from a lack of willing buyers this year. Buyers have been spurred on by the positive affordability picture brought about by low mortgage rates," said Toronto Real Estate Board President Richard Silver. "The challenge has been a lack of inventory. Many listings have attracted multiple interested buyers. Strong competition has led to annual rates of price growth well above the long-term average."

The average selling price in the GTA was $504,117 in March - up by 10.5 per cent in comparison to March 2011.

"The number of new listings was up last month in comparison to March 2011.



However, based on the historic relationship between price and listings, the GTA resale market should be better supplied. If competition between buyers remains as strong as it is right now, we will almost certainly see an average selling price above $500,000 for 2012 as a whole," said Jason Mercer, TREB's Senior Manager of Market Analysis.



I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!

All the Best!

Mark

A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987
BUS 905-828-3434
FAX 905-828-2829 CELL 416-520-1577
mark@mississauga4sale.com
Mississauga4Sale.com

* Thinking of selling your home in the next 3 to 6 months? Would you
like a Complimentary & Quick Over-The-Net Home Evaluation ?
www.mississauga4sale.com/internet-evaluation.htm


* Power of Sales and Foreclosures
www.mississauga4sale.com/Power-Sales-Bank-Sales-Alert-Request.htm


* If you have not already signed up to receive my monthly real estate
newsletter, you may do so here: On-Line Real Estate Newsletter sign up
www.mississauga4sale.com/popupquestion.htm


* See seasonal housing patterns
www.mississauga4sale.com/TREBprice.htm


* Would you like me to send you a desk or wall Calendar?
www.mississauga4sale.com/Calendar-Order-Form.htm

Wednesday, March 28, 2012

Are rates about to increase? Mortgage Interest Rate outlook

We have seen a price war for 4 year mortgage interest rates for the past couple of weeks. BMO was one of the first out of the gate to offer 2.99% for a 4 year mortgage, the other banks and lenders followed shortly thereafter.
Now you can see 5 and 10 year mortgage interest rates at absurdly low levels.
I've seen 5 year fixed rate mortgages at 3.5% which is unbelievably low.
Fixed rate mortgages are very attractive right now.
I've written many articles about staying with short term mortgage rates at this page:
<http://www.mississauga4sale.com/Lock-In-Short-Term-Long-Term-Mortgage.htm>
http://www.mississauga4sale.com/Lock-In-Short-Term-Long-Term-Mortgage.htm
My preference for many years has been to go variable, but if you are not a gambler, then it could be getting close to the time where you lock in your mortgage.
Read the article below that just appeared in the POST, it's very interesting what the experts are saying.
Stay Tuned.......
All the best!
Mark


The logic is pretty simple. You hit rock bottom and there is no where else to go but up.




Mortgage rates on terms of five years and 10 years have never been this low. You can go back 50 years and not find a rate of 2.99% from one of the major banks for a fixed-rate product for five years. The 10-year, an almost unheard of length for most Canadians to commit to, has touched down at below 4%. Even sticking it out with a variable-rate product linked to the prime lending rate still looks pretty good with most major financial institutions offering some type of discount off their 3% floating rate. Already there are signs rates could be on the increase. The bond market - which mortgage rates are based on - has been rising fast and the big banks say their most recent specials will come to an end this week. But even with a 50 basis point increase, a five-year fixed closed mortgage of 3.5% is almost unheard of historically. "Everybody is looking at the bottom here and thinking, 'When are rates going to go up?'"  .Even among the experts, few foresaw this price war in the mortgage sector. "With the big banks getting very aggressive again, it took a lot of people by surprise," said Mr. Mangaroo. "I think people were thinking the status quo would hold for a while." .He says the last Bank of Canada announcement about the economy had people thinking at some point the overnight lending rate, which impacts the prime lending rate, would go up, but not this year. "Now that people are thinking of early 2013, that has people talking but really that is just so far out says Mr. Mangaroo. "It's really just an abstract concept at this point." Craig Alexander, chief economist with Toronto-Dominion Bank, says he can understand how there might be some fatigue from consumers hearing about rising rates. "Unfortunately, we have been saying for years 'that's it, rates can't go any lower than they are today' and then they are [lower] 12 months later," Mr. Alexander says. .But this time out, he says, it almost seems impossible that rates on a five-year closed mortgage could go lower than the current 3%. "Short of the Canadian economy going into a recession and causing the Bank of Canada to cut rates back to their all-time low, there really isn't an environment that would lead to significantly lower mortgage rates," Mr. Alexander says. "The downside here is extraordinarily limited." The real risk for the consumer might be not locking in right now. While no one is expecting the overnight rate to go up anytime soon - discounts off the prime lending rate might even improve if the economic uncertainty calms in some parts of the world - the 50-year-low rates today could become hard to find. "If the economic forecasters are wrong about the outlook for growth and things turn out better than anticipated, then bond yield will rise, we'll have a steeper yield curve and higher fixed mortgage rates," Mr. Alexander says. "You won't be able to get what is offered today in 12 months time. They could go up half a percentage point or higher." In the interim, Gregory Klump, chief economist with Canadian Real Estate Association, says in terms of profitability, there is room for the banks to go lower on rates, but margins for the banks are so thin he doesn't expect it happen. "We are not out of the woods yet in terms of a clear picture that growth is going to strengthen," says Mr. Klump about the catalyst that could drive up bond rates, which would impact mortgage rates. "My own view is growth may well weaken." He predicts that any rise in rates will happen slowly, which the housing market would more easily absorb. "I do not expect it," Mr. Klump says about the type of interest rate shock that could send housing sales tumbling. Author Garth Turner, a noted pessimist on the fortunes of housing these days, thinks those who want to be in the market for a house should probably be grabbing on to long-term products. He says the banks know the housing market is already shrinking and are scrambling for a larger share of the mortgage market, something that also allows them to cross-sell other products like RRSPs to consumers. "The writing is already on the wall, prices will be declining," Mr. Turner says. "The Bank of Canada will be raising rates." A Bank of Canada hike will make variable rates rise fast, and he agrees the present day rates could look very good in a few years. "If you want to be a homeowner, it is an appealing product. Three or fours years from now, these rates could look absurd. I have no problem with being in real estate as long as it's not the bulk of your net worth. If you are getting into real estate now though and leveraging up, you are going to be unhappy about it," says Mr. Turner, adding the raising rate environment will hurt sales and prices will follow quickly. Don Lawby, chief executive of Century 21, says the rate wars going on right now combined with the unusually warm winter have already boosted housing sales, which could leave little demand left for the spring market. "Interest rates are low and they probably can't go any lower than they are," says Mr. Lawby, who thinks there is not much room for housing prices to go higher. "I looked around and say if the local economy stays good, the market can stay good. But these low rates are very key."

I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!
All the Best!
Mark
A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987
BUS 905-828-3434
FAX 905-828-2829 CELL 416-520-1577
mark@mississauga4sale.com
Mississauga4Sale.com
* Thinking of selling your home in the next 3 to 6 months? Would you
like a Complimentary & Quick Over-The-Net Home Evaluation ?
www.mississauga4sale.com/internet-evaluation.htm

* Power of Sales and Foreclosures
www.mississauga4sale.com/Power-Sales-Bank-Sales-Alert-Request.htm

* If you have not already signed up to receive my monthly real estate
newsletter, you may do so here: On-Line Real Estate Newsletter sign up
www.mississauga4sale.com/popupquestion.htm

* See seasonal housing patterns
www.mississauga4sale.com/TREBprice.htm

* Would you like me to send you a desk or wall Calendar?
www.mississauga4sale.com/Calendar-Order-Form.htm







































Friday, March 23, 2012

Mid-month report for March 2012 from TREB Real Estate

GTA REALTORS® Report Mid-Month Resale Housing Market Figures

TORONTO, March 19, 2012 –During the first 14 days of March, Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 4,215 transactions through the TorontoMLS system, representing a seven per cent increase compared to the same period in 2011. The number of new listings was down by two per cent year-over-year to 6,970.


“Home buyers continue to benefit from the affordable housing situation in the GTA. Immigration to Toronto and surrounding areas adds to the pool of home buyers every year. The economic and ethnic diversity found in the GTA consistently attracts newcomers and foreign investment,” said Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) President Richard Silver.


The average selling price for transactions between March 1 and 14 was $502,155 – up by more than nine per cent compared to the first 14 days of March 2011. On average, homes sold for 100 per cent of the asking price within three weeks.


“Strong competition between home buyers in many parts of the GTA has resulted in sellers realizing their asking price in a short period of time. The fact that homes are selling for 100 per cent of the asking price, on average, suggests that sellers are very much in tune with the current market situation and know the fair market value of their home,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Senior Manager of Market Analysis











Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) Average Prices and Graph

For more information please contact A. Mark Argentino

A. Mark Argentino, Broker, P.Eng.,
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc., Brokerage
2691 Credit Valley Road, Suite 101, Mississauga, Ontario L5M 7A1
BUS. 905-828-3434
FAX. 905-828-2829
E-MAIL: mark@mississauga4sale.com
Website: Mississauga4Sale.com

Tuesday, March 06, 2012

GTA real estate market has tight market that pushes the average price above $500K in Toronto

This is the latest from the Toronto Real Estate Board


Tight Market Pushes the Average Price above $500K TORONTO

March 5, 2012

Greater Toronto REALTORS(r) reported 7,032 sales in February 2012 - up 16 per cent compared to February 2011.

New listings were also up over the same period, but by a lesser 11 per cent to 12,684. It is important to note that 2012 is a leap year, with one more day in February.

Over the first 28 days of February, sales and new listings were up by ten per cent and six per cent respectively. "With slightly more than two months of inventory in the Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) market area, on average, it is not surprising that competition between buyers has exerted very strong upward pressure on the average selling price.

Price growth will continue to be very strong until the market becomes better supplied," said Toronto Real Estate Board President Richard Silver. "It is
important to note that both buyers and sellers are aware of current market conditions.

This is evidenced by the fact that homes sold, on average, for 99 per cent of the asking price in February," continued Silver.

The average selling price in the TREB market area was $502,508 in February - up 11 per cent compared to February 2011.

The Composite MLS(r) Home Price Index for TREB, which provides a less volatile measure of price growth compared to the average price, was up by 7.3 per cent compared February 2011.

"If tight market conditions continue to result in higher than expected price growth as we move into the spring, expectations for 2012 as a whole will have to be revised upwards," said Jason Mercer, TREB's Senior Manager of Market Analysis.

"While price growth remains strong, the average selling price remains affordable from a mortgage lending perspective for a household earning the average income in the GTA."

Read more and see graphs of prices at this page

I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!

All the Best!

Mark

I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!

All the Best!

Mark

A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987
BUS 905-828-3434
FAX 905-828-2829 CELL 416-520-1577
mark@mississauga4sale.com
Mississauga4Sale.com

* Thinking of selling your home in the next 3 to 6 months? Would you
like a Complimentary & Quick Over-The-Net Home Evaluation ?
www.mississauga4sale.com/internet-evaluation.htm


* Power of Sales and Foreclosures
www.mississauga4sale.com/Power-Sales-Bank-Sales-Alert-Request.htm


* If you have not already signed up to receive my monthly real estate
newsletter, you may do so here: On-Line Real Estate Newsletter sign up
www.mississauga4sale.com/popupquestion.htm


* See seasonal housing patterns
www.mississauga4sale.com/TREBprice.htm


* Would you like me to send you a desk or wall Calendar?
www.mississauga4sale.com/Calendar-Order-Form.htm

Monday, March 05, 2012

TREB Real Estate latest figures show very healthy GTA real estate marketplace

GTA REALTORS® RELEASE RESALE MONTHLY MARKET FIGURES



Toronto, March 5, 2012 – Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 7,032 sales in February 2012 – up 16 per cent compared to February 2011. New listings were also up over the same period, but by a lesser 11 per cent to 12,684. It is important to note that 2012 is a leap year, with one more day in February. Over the first 28 days of February, sales and new listings were up by ten per cent and six per cent respectively.



“With slightly more than two months of inventory in the Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) market area, on average, it is not surprising that competition between buyers has exerted very strong upward pressure on the average selling price. Price growth will continue to be very strong until the market becomes better supplied,” said Toronto Real Estate Board President Richard Silver.



“It is important to note that both buyers and sellers are aware of current market conditions. This is evidenced by the fact that homes sold, on average, for 99 per cent of the asking price in February,” continued Silver.



The average selling price in the TREB market area was $502,508 in February – up 11 per cent compared to February 2011. The Composite MLS® Home Price Index for TREB, which provides a less volatile measure of price growth compared to the average price, was up by 7.3 per cent compared February 2011.




“If tight market conditions continue to result in higher than expected price growth as we move into the spring, expectations for 2012 as a whole will have to be revised upwards,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Senior Manager of Market Analysis. “While price growth remains strong, the average selling price remains affordable from a mortgage lending perspective for a household earning the average income in the GTA.”



Summary of TorontoMLS Sales and Average Price




Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) Average Prices and Graph

For more information please contact A. Mark Argentino

A. Mark Argentino, Broker, P.Eng.,
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc., Brokerage
2691 Credit Valley Road, Suite 101, Mississauga, Ontario L5M 7A1
BUS. 905-828-3434
FAX. 905-828-2829
E-MAIL: mark@mississauga4sale.com
Website: Mississauga4Sale.com

Friday, February 24, 2012

2012 TREB Affordability Indicator Share of Average Household Income Used for Mortgage Principal and Interest, Property Taxes and Utilities

This chart plots the share of average household income that goes toward mortgage principal and interest, property taxes and utilities for the average priced home in the GTA subject to the following assumptions:
1.Average annual or year-to-date home price as reported by TREB
2.20 per cent down payment
3.Average 5-year fixed mortgage rate (Statistics Canada); 25-year amortization
4.Average property tax rate reported by/estimated from the Statistics Canada Survey of Household Spending
5.Average utilities cost reported by/estimated from the Statistics Canada Survey of Household Spending and components of the Consumer Price Index
6.Average household income reported by the Census of Canada.



Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) Average Prices and Graph

For more information please contact A. Mark Argentino

A. Mark Argentino, Broker, P.Eng.,
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc., Brokerage
2691 Credit Valley Road, Suite 101, Mississauga, Ontario L5M 7A1
BUS. 905-828-3434
FAX. 905-828-2829
E-MAIL: mark@mississauga4sale.com
Website: Mississauga4Sale.com

Thursday, February 23, 2012

2012 TREB MLS® Sales-to-New Listings Ratio Compared to Average Annual Per Cent Change in Home Price

This chart plots the monthly sales-to-new listings ratio (blue line) with year-over-year average annual per cent price change (brown line). When the sales-to-new listings ratio moves higher, average annual per cent change in home prices generally trends higher. When the sales-to-new listings ratio moves lower, average annual per cent change in home prices generally trends lower.



Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) Average Prices and Graph

For more information please contact A. Mark Argentino

A. Mark Argentino, Broker, P.Eng.,
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc., Brokerage
2691 Credit Valley Road, Suite 101, Mississauga, Ontario L5M 7A1
BUS. 905-828-3434
FAX. 905-828-2829
E-MAIL: mark@mississauga4sale.com
Website: Mississauga4Sale.com

Tuesday, February 21, 2012

2012 TREB MLS® Average Price Monthly Time Series with Trend Line Actual

This chart plots monthly MLS® average price since January 1995. The blue line shows the actual average price. The brown line is the trend computed using a 12-month moving average, which exhibits no seasonal variations or other irregular fluctuations. A substantial change in actual average price must occur to change the direction of the trend.



Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) Average Prices and Graph

For more information please contact A. Mark Argentino

A. Mark Argentino, Broker, P.Eng.,
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc., Brokerage
2691 Credit Valley Road, Suite 101, Mississauga, Ontario L5M 7A1
BUS. 905-828-3434
FAX. 905-828-2829
E-MAIL: mark@mississauga4sale.com
Website: Mississauga4Sale.com

Monday, February 20, 2012

2012 TREB MLS® New Listings Monthly Time Series with Trend Line

This chart plots monthly MLS® new listings since January 1995. The blue line shows actual new listings. The brown line is the trend computed using a 12-month moving average, which exhibits no seasonal variations or other irregular fluctuations. A substantial change in actual new listings must occur to change the direction of the trend.






Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) Average Prices and Graph

For more information please contact A. Mark Argentino

A. Mark Argentino, Broker, P.Eng.,
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc., Brokerage
2691 Credit Valley Road, Suite 101, Mississauga, Ontario L5M 7A1
BUS. 905-828-3434
FAX. 905-828-2829
E-MAIL: mark@mississauga4sale.com
Website: Mississauga4Sale.com

Saturday, February 18, 2012

TD Canada Trust latest Economic News - February 17, 2012

This is the latest news from TD Canada Trust about Candian home sales,
interesting reading indeed!
Mark

Data Release: Canadian home resales lower in January


The number of Canadian home resales fell by 4.5% in January on a seasonally-adjusted basis. This was the first monthly decline in five months, and the largest since July 2010. Still, the January resale

level is slightly above the monthly average observed in 2011.


Regionally, the January drop in resales was especially marked in Greater Toronto and Montreal.


Overall, there were declines in over half of all local markets.


Despite the volume decline, average resale prices rebounded 1.6% in January (seasonally adjusted) following a similar decline in December 2011. Prices rose both in Toronto (+3.8%) and Vancouver

(+2.7%).


Key Implications


Canada's housing market was firming up during the second half of 2011, due in large part to the relative stability of the Canadian economy, steady consumer confidence and historically low interest rates.


This month's decline is likely reflective of what will shape up to be a softer year in sales, especially when it comes to Toronto and Vancouver condos. We anticipate growth will slow down in 2012 both in terms of sale volumes (+0.5%) and prices (+2.5%). In contrast, the actual
correction is foreseen to start in 2013, with both resales and prices turning negative.


This forecast is in line with the timing of interest rate increases, which we expect will start to take hold in 2013.


I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!

All the Best!

Mark

A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987
BUS 905-828-3434
FAX 905-828-2829 CELL 416-520-1577
mark@mississauga4sale.com
Mississauga4Sale.com

* Thinking of selling your home in the next 3 to 6 months? Would you
like a Complimentary & Quick Over-The-Net Home Evaluation ?
www.mississauga4sale.com/internet-evaluation.htm


* Power of Sales and Foreclosures
www.mississauga4sale.com/Power-Sales-Bank-Sales-Alert-Request.htm


* If you have not already signed up to receive my monthly real estate
newsletter, you may do so here: On-Line Real Estate Newsletter sign up
www.mississauga4sale.com/popupquestion.htm


* See seasonal housing patterns
www.mississauga4sale.com/TREBprice.htm


* Would you like me to send you a desk or wall Calendar?
www.mississauga4sale.com/Calendar-Order-Form.htm

Friday, February 17, 2012

2012 TREB MLS® Sales Monthly Time Series with Trend Line

This chart plots monthly MLS® sales since January 1995. The blue line shows actual sales. The brown line is the trend computed using a 12-month moving average, which exhibits no seasonal variations or other irregular fluctuations. A substantial change in actual sales must occur to change the direction of the trend.



Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) Average Prices and Graph

For more information please contact A. Mark Argentino

A. Mark Argentino, Broker, P.Eng.,
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc., Brokerage
2691 Credit Valley Road, Suite 101, Mississauga, Ontario L5M 7A1
BUS. 905-828-3434
FAX. 905-828-2829
E-MAIL: mark@mississauga4sale.com
Website: Mississauga4Sale.com

Thursday, February 16, 2012

Sales for the first half of February up by more than 9% compared to the same period last year Toronto Real Estate Board









Below is the latest report from the Toronto Real Estate Board regarding the sales for the first half of February, up by more than 9% compared to the same period last year.




GTA REALTORS(r) Report Mid-Month Resale Housing Market Figures


Toronto, February 16, 2012 - Greater Toronto REALTORS(r) reported 3,206 sales through the TorontoMLS(r) system through the first 14 days of February 2012 - up by more than nine per cent compared to the 2,933 sales reported during the same period in 2011. New listings were up by 13 per cent over the same period.


"The GTA resale home market became better supplied during the first 14 days of February. If growth in new listings continues to outstrip growth in sales this year, competition between home buyers will ease. More balanced market conditions on a sustained basis would result in a lower annual rates of price growth later in 2012," said Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) President
Richard Silver.


The average selling price during the first 14 days of February was $491,493 - up by nine per cent compared to the first 14 days of February 2011. On average, sellers received 99 per cent of their asking price and their homes were on the market for an average of 25 days.


"Both buyers and sellers are aware of the substantial competition that exists for most listings in the GTA. There is not a mismatch in expectations, so homes sell quickly at close to the asking price," said Jason Mercer, TREB's Senior Manager of Market Analysis.


I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!


All the Best!


Mark


A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987
BUS 905-828-3434
FAX 905-828-2829 CELL 416-520-1577
mark@mississauga4sale.com
Mississauga4Sale.com


* Thinking of selling your home in the next 3 to 6 months? Would you
like a Complimentary & Quick Over-The-Net Home Evaluation ?
www.mississauga4sale.com/internet-evaluation.htm



* Power of Sales and Foreclosures
www.mississauga4sale.com/Power-Sales-Bank-Sales-Alert-Request.htm



* If you have not already signed up to receive my monthly real estate
newsletter, you may do so here: On-Line Real Estate Newsletter sign up
www.mississauga4sale.com/popupquestion.htm



* See seasonal housing patterns
www.mississauga4sale.com/TREBprice.htm



* Would you like me to send you a desk or wall Calendar?
www.mississauga4sale.com/Calendar-Order-Form.htm

2012 TREB MLS® Average Resale Home Price Monthly with Three Previous Years for Comparison




Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) Average Prices and Graph
Explanation: This chart plots the monthly MLS® average home price for the current year and the previous three years. The recurring seasonal trend can be examined along with comparisons to previous years for each month.














For more information please contact A. Mark Argentino

A. Mark Argentino, Broker, P.Eng.,
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc., Brokerage
2691 Credit Valley Road, Suite 101, Mississauga, Ontario L5M 7A1
BUS. 905-828-3434
FAX. 905-828-2829
E-MAIL: mark@mississauga4sale.com
Website: Mississauga4Sale.com

Tuesday, February 14, 2012

2012 TREB MLS® Sales-to-New Listings Ratio Monthly with Three Previous Years for Comparison



Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) Average Prices and Graph




Explanation: This chart plots the monthly MLS® sales-to-new listings ratio (SNLR) for the current year and the previous three years. The recurring seasonal trend can be examined along with comparisons to previous years for each month. When the SNLR moves higher, annual average price growth generally increases – often at a rate well above inflation. When the SNLR moves lower, annual average price growth generally declines and can become negative.
































For more information please contact A. Mark Argentino

A. Mark Argentino, Broker, P.Eng.,
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc., Brokerage
2691 Credit Valley Road, Suite 101, Mississauga, Ontario L5M 7A1
BUS. 905-828-3434
FAX. 905-828-2829
E-MAIL: mark@mississauga4sale.com
Website: Mississauga4Sale.com

Monday, February 13, 2012

2012 TREB MLS® New Listings Monthly with Three Previous Years for Comparison



Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) Average Prices and Graph




Explanation: This chart plots monthly MLS® new listings for the current year and the previous three years. The recurring seasonal trend can be examined along with comparisons to previous years for each month.











For more information please contact A. Mark Argentino

A. Mark Argentino, Broker, P.Eng.,
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc., Brokerage
2691 Credit Valley Road, Suite 101, Mississauga, Ontario L5M 7A1
BUS. 905-828-3434
FAX. 905-828-2829
E-MAIL: mark@mississauga4sale.com
Website: Mississauga4Sale.com

Thursday, February 09, 2012

Canada's Housing Market in 2012 - bubble or balloon?

A client of mine just sent me this Great article below about Canada's Housing Market


I've been worried about a bubble or a balloon in our local market since about 2003 when many of us thought "prices can't go higher" and sure enough they just kept marching upward.

Since I've been plugged into the real estate market and prices since the early 80's it's difficult for me to comprehend after a rise each year since 1995 of 6 to 10% that prices can continue to escalate. It is the opposite of the old school thinking of 7 year economic cycles that we used to experience and intuitively, we all know that prices cannot continue to rise indefinitely.

So where is the peak? Nobody knows for sure, but I don't think we are there yet in the GTA

It's a little disconcerting to see prices so high. If interest rates begin to increase, as they are suggesting by the beginning of 2013 then it could start a slowdown.

In Toronto we lack listings. There has been a low amount of listings since January of 2009 and the demand just keeps on increasing, hence the multiple offers on properties that are priced well.

We are looking to purchase a bungalow in an average area of Oakville, one was listed on Monday this week for $579,900 and it sold firm by Wednesday for $620,000 I heard there were 11 offers, silly!

Any worry is as the article below states "Vancouver's ratio of home prices to incomes is the highest in the English-speaking world" and that is some cause for concern.

I was surprised to read that Toronto is building more than 75 skyscrapers compared to New York, they just don't seem to be able to build condos fast enough in Toronto for the past decade or so.

Time will tell what happens with the market. Personally, I don't see interest rates rising much more than .5% by the end of 2013 and I don't see a plethora of listings coming on the market either for the next 3 to 6 months, this only means that demand will eat up any new supply and prices will likely continue to increase for at least the next 3 to 6 months in the GTA.

All the best!
Mark











Canada's Housing Market









Look out below









After years of lecturing America about loose lending, Canada now must
confront a bubble of its own









Feb 4th 2012 TORONTO from the print edition








*


























IN FEW corners of the world would a car park squeezed between two arms of an
elevated highway be seen as prime real estate. In Toronto, however, a
75-storey condominium is planned for such an awkward site, near the
waterfront. The car park next door will become a pair of 70-storey towers
too. In total, 173 sky-scrapers are being built in Toronto, the most in
North America. New York is second with 96.








When the United States saw a vast housing bubble inflate and burst during
the 2000s, many Canadians felt smug about the purported prudence of their
financial and property markets. During the crash, Canadian house prices fell
by just 8%, compared with more than 30% in America. They hit new record
highs by 2010. "Canada was not a part of the problem," Stephen Harper, the
prime minister, boasted in 2010.








Today the consensus is growing on Bay Street, Toronto's answer to Wall
Street, that Mr Harper may have to eat his words. In response to America's
slow economic recovery and uncertainty in Europe, the Bank of Canada has
kept interest rates at record lows. Five-year fixed-rate mortgages now
charge interest of just 2.99%. In response, Canadians have sought
ever-bigger loans for ever-costlier homes. The country's house prices have
doubled since 2002.








Speculators are pouring into the property markets in Toronto and Vancouver.
"We have foreign investors who are purchasing two, three, four, five
properties," says Michael Thompson, who heads Toronto's economic-development
committee. Last month a modest Toronto home put on the market for C$380,000
($381,500) sold for C$570,000, following a bidding war among 31 prospective
buyers. According to Demographia, a consultancy, Vancouver's ratio of home
prices to incomes is the highest in the English-speaking world.

































Bankers are becoming alarmed. Mark Carney, the governor of the central bank,
has been warning for years that Canadians are consuming beyond their means.
The bosses of banks with big mortgage businesses, including CIBC, Royal Bank
of Canada and the Bank of Montreal, have all said the housing market is at
or near its peak. Canada's ratio of household debt to disposable income has
risen by 40% in the past decade, recently surpassing America's (see chart).
And its ratio of house prices to income is now 30% above its historical
average-less than, say, Ireland's excesses (which reached 70%), but high
enough to expect a drop. A recent report from Bank of America said Canada
was "showing many of the signs of a classic bubble".








The consequences of such a bubble bursting are hard to predict. On the one
hand, high demand for Canada's commodity exports could cushion the blow from
a housing bust. And since banks have recourse to all of a borrower's assets,
and Canadian lending standards are stricter than America's were, a decline
in house prices would probably not wreck the banks as it did in the United
States.








However, the Canadian economy is still dependent on the consumer. Fears
about the global economy have slowed business investment, and all levels of
government are bent on austerity. The Conservative government's next budget
is expected to put forward a plan to close the federal deficit, now 2% of
GDP, by 2015-modest austerity compared to Europe's, but still a drag on the
economy. Few new jobs are being created. Assuming there is no setback in
Europe's debt crunch, slowdown in America or drop in commodity prices, GDP
is forecast to grow by a meagre 2% this year. If consumers start feeling
less well off, Canada could slip back into recession.








The inevitable landing will probably be soft. Increases in house prices and
sales volumes are slowing, and the 2015 Pan American Games in Toronto should
prop up builders. "The national housing market is more like a balloon than a
bubble," says a report by the Bank of Montreal. "While bubbles always burst,
a balloon often deflates slowly in the absence of a 'pin'."








Moreover, the government is trying to cool the market. The banking regulator
is increasing its scrutiny of housing in response to concerns about
speculators. The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, a government
mortgage-insurance agency, says it will have to start reducing its new
coverage because of legal limits. And the finance ministry has cut the
maximum term of publicly insured mortgages from 35 years to 30. Some bank
managers are calling for it to be reduced to 25, the historical norm.
Canada's reputation for financial sobriety is not entirely unwarranted.








However, the state has refused to use its most powerful tool. To protect
business investment, the central bank has made clear that it plans to keep
interest rates low. As long as money stays cheap, the balloon could get
bigger-perhaps big enough to become a fully fledged bubble after all.








from the print edition The Americas