Interesting perpestive on the stock market

I have a friend who is seriously involved with the stock market and analysis of the economy. He sent me the following analysis, what do you think?

Thanks

Mark

Dear Mark

Additional info:
Remember when you bought stocks, oil and gold in
December 2008 - you shorted US$.
Now it's going the other way.
There is no other way.
US$ down everything up,
US$ up everything down.
However, since China will not allow the US to destroy the US$ (as they spend to oblivion)
the yuan is pegged to the US$ - unchanged for years
(since China announced they were getting out of US$ -
September 2007) - but they did the opposite.
That was the day C$ hit US$1.1.

You will notice that the whole market did not bottom until
March 9, 2009 when the C$ also bottomed,
but gold bottomed first in December.
Conversely, the top for the market was in September 2007 (when C$ hit US$1.1).
Same thing happened in 1999-2000.
Gold bottomed after September 2001 -
when they cut interest rates.
Just like the 1970s.
Not to mention 1930s.
Now interest rates are at 0% - just like Japan since 1991.
But, mortgage rates did go up.

"Investors" have a short memory.

The economy is not gettting better (affecting politics!):
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/article6902932.ece


Based on the charts for currencies (US$/C$/Euro/Sfr/yuan/Ruble),
gold, oil, real estate, technology, financials,
This recession will last forever,
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/bonner/bonner101209.html

which DOES NOT mean you cannot make money in the stock market -
you just have to be patient and disciplined
and you need to understand what you are doing.


Do you actually know what mutual funds hold?
I bet even the conservative ones hold stocks
(to boost returns).
Notice how financial experts, analysts, stockbrokers, politicians...
always buy - almost nobody sells!
Good luck.

National Housing Outlook In Detail

This is another in a series of articles from CMHC talking about the country and the housing outlook

National Housing Outlook In Detail

While activity has picked-up in recent months, when compared to low levels in the first half of 2009, housing starts will still decrease to 141,900 units this year compared to 211,056 in 2008.

Housing starts will increase to 164,900 in 2010 as the economy strengthens. Given the degree of economic uncertainty, we have considered an array of economic
scenarios to generate a range for the housing outlook in 2009 and 2010.

Accordingly, we expect starts to be between 138,000 and 146,000 units in 2009 and between 135,000 and 190,000 units in 2010.

Housing starts were down in most provinces in the first half of 2009, however, activity is beginning to rebound and will continue to do so in the remainder of 2009 and into 2010.

Nevertheless, housing starts are forecast to decline in all ten provinces in 2009. Moving forward to 2010, growth will turn positive in nearly all provinces, with Western Canada leading the way.

I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!

All the Best!

Mark

A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate

Thinking of Selling? Best Mortgage Rates Current Home Prices Search MLS Newsletter
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987
( BUS 905-828-3434
2 FAX 905-828-2829 ÈCELL 416-520-1577
› E-MAIL : mailto:mark@mississauga4sale.com?subject=Mississauga
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Oprah Winfrey TV show to end September 9th, 2011

Oprah Winfrey show to end September 9th, 2011

After many years on TV Oprah is finally ending her TV show and moving on
with things in her life. She is one of the wealthiest people on the planet,
good for her, time to spend with her family and friends and spreading the
wealth!
Oprah Winfrey will end her show after its 25th season wraps in 2011,
according to publicists for her production company, Harpo.

This confirmation comes after speculation that Winfrey could be moving the
popular syndicated talk show, which currently films in Chicago, to her new
cable network, OWN, which is based in Los Angeles.

Sources tell msnbc.com that Winfrey will host a new daily talk show on OWN,
and will also host specials for the network.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/34050109/ns/entertainment-television/

Nov. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Oprah Winfrey will announce the end of her syndicated
talk show on tomorrow's broadcast as she plans to start a cable channel with
Discovery Communications Inc.

The television host will provide further details about her plans tomorrow,
Don Halcombe, a spokesman for Winfrey's Chicago- based Harpo Inc. production
company, said today in an interview.

"The Oprah Winfrey Show," syndicated by CBS Corp., helped make the
55-year-old entertainer one of the richest Americans, with a net worth of
$2.3 billion, according to Forbes magazine. It spawned an empire that
includes a magazine as well as film and television production. Winfrey
formed a venture in January 2008 to convert Discovery Health into the Oprah
Winfrey Network.

"We have the greatest respect for Oprah and wish her nothing but the best in
her future endeavors," New York-based CBS said in an e-mailed statement. "We
look forward to working with her for the next several years."

WABC in Chicago reported the story earlier. The last show will be in
September 2011, Tim Bennett, president of Harpo, said in a letter to
stations that carry the program.

Oprah's talk show began airing in 1986, according to the Internet Movie
Database.

CBS, owner of the most-watched U.S. broadcast network, fell 42 cents to
$13.31 today in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. The shares have
gained 63 percent this year.

I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!

All the Best!

Mark

A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate

<http://www.mississauga4sale.com/selling-process.htm> Thinking of Selling?
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<http://www.mississauga4sale.com/mortgage-rates-mark.htm> | Current Home
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CREA national statistics for the country

These are the national statistics on real estate activity across the country
for October 2009

Enjoy!
Mark

Units Sales
Seasonally adjusted national home sales activity climbed 11.2 per cent in
April 2009 compared to the previous month. This is the largest
month-to-month increase in activity in more than five years. MLS(r) home
sales activity reached its highest level in seven months, with 34,838 units
trading hands nationally via the MLS(r) in April on a seasonally adjusted
basis.

The increase in April builds on gains of 10.3 per cent in February and 7.7
per cent in March. Seasonally adjusted activity now stands 32 per cent above
the lowest level in a decade that was recorded in January 2009.

Seasonally adjusted sales were up from March levels in 70 per cent of local
markets, with gains in Toronto (10 per cent), Vancouver (30 per cent),
Montreal (15 per cent), and Calgary (31 per cent) contributing most to the
overall increase in monthly activity.

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) MLS(r) home sales totaled 43,473 units in
April 2009, down 11.8 per cent from the same month one year ago.
Year-over-year declines have been shrinking since dropping a record 42.2 per
cent in November 2008.

I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!

All the Best!

Mark

A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate

Single-detached starts to move higher in 2010

This is CMHC's prediction for the 2010 detached housing market, interesting to say the least!

Mark

Single-detached starts to move higher in 2010

Strong price growth in the past few years for single-detached housing has moderated the demand for this type of housing, and increased demand for less expensive multi-family housing.

The uncertain economic environment in late 2008 and early 2009 contributed to the downward trend in single starts. By the second quarter of 2009, however, single starts rebounded in most provinces.

Over the forecast horizon, this trend is expected to continue as more moderate prices make the singles market more attractive. After declining to 70,350 units in 2009, the number of single-detached housing starts will increase to 79,700 units in 2010.

By and large, starts of single-detached housing will continue to recover in the second half of 2009. Moving into 2010, all provinces will see an increase in the number of single-detached starts. In British Columbia, here employment growth is expected to be the strongest in the country, starts of single-detached homes will move up to 8,400 units, the largest percentage increase in the country for 2010.

I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!

All the Best!

Mark

A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate

Thinking of Selling? Best Mortgage Rates Current Home Prices Search MLS Newsletter
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987
( BUS 905-828-3434
2 FAX 905-828-2829 ÈCELL 416-520-1577
› E-MAIL : mailto:mark@mississauga4sale.com?subject=Mississauga
Website : Mississauga4Sale.com

• Thinking of selling your home in the next 3 to 6 months? Would you like a Complimentary & Quick Over-The-Net Home Evaluation ?
• Power of Sales and Foreclosures
• If you have not already signed up to receive my monthly real estate newsletter, you may do so here: On-Line Real Estate Newsletter sign up
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CREA Report October a record breaking month for MLS resale housing market

This is the latest report on the mls data for sales and activity for the
month of October across the country. It shows very interesting trends and
national averages.

Enjoy!
Mark



October a record breaking month for MLS(r) resale housing market
New records for the month were reported in about one-fifth of local markets

OTTAWA - November 16th, 2009 - According to The Canadian Real Estate
Association, sales activity reached the highest level ever for the month of
October.

Residential sales activity via the Multiple Listing Service(r) (MLS(r)) of
Canadian real estate boards numbered 42,288 units. This is up 41.5 per cent
compared to October 2008, when news of the global financial crisis hammered
consumer confidence. New records for the month were reported in about
one-fifth of local markets, including Toronto, Montreal, and Ottawa.

Seasonally adjusted national MLS(r) home sales totaled 45,818 units in
October 2009. This is two per cent higher than the previous record set in
May 2007, and 74 per cent above the recent low in January, when activity
fell to the lowest level in a decade. New monthly records for activity were
set in British Columbia, Ontario, and Quebec, which reflect record level
activity in Greater Vancouver, Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal and Quebec City.

Since the beginning of 2009, some 401,124 homes have traded hands via the
MLS(r) System. This is 1.6 per cent above the same period last year, but
below levels for this period in each of the previous three years.

"Low interest rates and upbeat consumer confidence continue to release the
pent-up demand that built late last year and earlier this year," said CREA
President Dale Ripplinger. "The release of that pent-up demand has boosted
national sales activity to new heights and is drawing down inventories."

The national MLS(r) residential average price also reached new heights in
October 2009. At $341,079, the average sale price was up 20.7 per cent from
the same month last year. The increase reflects the high degree to which the
national average price was skewed downward last year by a significant
decline in activity in Canada's priciest markets, and then upward by the
rebound in activity.

The price trend is similar but less dramatic for the national MLS(r)
weighted average price, which compensates for changes in provincial sales
activity by taking into account provincial proportions of privately owned
housing stock. It set a record in October, rising 14 per cent on a
year-over-year basis.

October also saw the MLS(r) residential average price in Canada's major
markets improve. At $373,095, the average sale price was up 22.1 per cent
from the same month last year. As with the national counterpart, the price
trend is similar but less dramatic for the major market MLS(r) weighted
average price which rose in October 12 per cent on a year-over-year basis.

Seasonally adjusted new listings coming onto the MLS(r) Systems of real
estate boards across Canada inched up on a month-over-month basis in October
to 65,148 units. New listings peaked in May 2008 and declined sharply until
March 2009. Since April 2009, new listings have held to within a range of
66,500 units, plus or minus 1800 units.

The sharp rise in resale housing demand has increasingly shrunk inventories.
There were 194,994 homes listed for sale on the MLS(r) Systems of real
estate boards in Canada at the end of October 2009. This is 20.8 per cent
below the peak reached one year ago, and the sixth month in a row in which
inventories are down from year-ago levels.

Nationally, there were 4.1 months of inventory in October 2009 on a
seasonally adjusted basis, the lowest level in more than two years. The
actual (not seasonally adjusted) number of months of inventory in October
2009 stood at 4.6 months, which is down slightly from the previous month
(4.9 months), and among the lowest of levels this year. The number of months
of inventory is the number of months it would take to sell current
inventories at the current rate of sales activity.

"New listings are still expected to rise in the coming months in response to
headline average price increases," said CREA Chief Economist Gregory Klump.
"New supply dropped dramatically in December last year and earlier this year
in response to a difficult pricing environment. Sellers who moved to the
sidelines should be drawn back to the market as prices rise further over the
rest of the year and in early 2010."

PLEASE NOTE: The information contained in this news release combines both
major market and
national MLS(r) sales information from the previous month. The Canadian Real
Estate Association has previously released these separately.

CREA cautions that average price information can be useful in establishing
trends over time, but does not indicate actual prices in centres comprised
of widely divergent neighborhoods or account for price differential between
geographic areas. Statistical information contained in this report includes
all housing types.

MLS(r) is a co-operative marketing system used only by Canada's real estate
Boards to ensure maximum exposure of properties listed for sale.

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada's largest
single-industry trade associations, representing more than 96,000
REALTORS(r) working through more than 100 real estate Boards and
Associations. Further information can be found at www.crea.ca.

I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!

All the Best!

Mark

A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate

<http://www.mississauga4sale.com/selling-process.htm> Thinking of Selling?
Best Mortgage Rates
<http://www.mississauga4sale.com/mortgage-rates-mark.htm> Current Home
<http://www.mississauga4sale.com/TREBprice.htm> Prices Search MLS
<http://www.mississauga4sale.com/mls-ca-real-estate-mississauga.htm>
Newsletter
<http://www.mississauga4sale.com/newsletter/latest_newsletter.htm>
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987
* BUS 905-828-3434
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* E-MAIL <mailto:mark@mississauga4sale.com?subject=Mississauga Real Estate
Information Request> : mark@mississauga4sale.com
<mailto:mark@mississauga4sale.com?subject=Mississauga Real Estate
Information Request>
Website <http://www.mississauga4sale.com/index.htm> :
<http://www.mississauga4sale.com/index.htm> Mississauga4Sale.com

* Thinking of selling your home in the next 3 to 6 months? Would you
like a Complimentary
<http://www.mississauga4sale.com/internet-evaluation.htm> & Quick
Over-The-Net Home Evaluation ?
* Power of Sales and Foreclosures
<http://www.mississauga4sale.com/Power-Sales-Bank-Sales-Alert-Request.htm>
* If you have not already signed up to receive my monthly real estate
newsletter, you may do so here: On-Line
<http://www.mississauga4sale.com/popupquestion.htm> Real Estate Newsletter
sign up
* See seasonal housing patterns
<http://www.mississauga4sale.com/TREBavg1995date.htm>
* Would you like me to send you a 2009 Calendar
<http://www.mississauga4sale.com/Calendar-Order-Form.htm> ?

Why the housing market is on fire even in a recession - good question!

I just watched a video interview with Garth Turner and his comments although convincing and foreshadowing as they seem, may not hold water in our current real estate market.

Watch the video here:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/features/lets-talk-investing/why-the-housing-market-is-on-fire-even-in-a-recession/article1365127/

Garth stated, amongst other things:

we are currently in an "asset bubble, people are delusional and nuts, lost a sense of reality, bidding beyond reality"

Garth feels the economy has surged too quick and said "we've recovered very quick, due to 3% mortgages, artificial environment, cheap money, politicians are saying recession is over and beyond us and this is artificially government created"

he feels that "interest rates are going up so the end is coming" that "sanity will come back into market, 1.5 million unemployed, businesses there because of dollars"

He made on e good point by stating in essence, "how sensible is it to buy over asking price, he feels it's crazy, that real estate is an expensive hobby, less than 15 minutes to buy a home, we exert less effort than a cell phone purchase, for half a million dollars, no conditions on inspection or financing, people are nuts, absolutely never should be doing this"

He makes some good points.

I too am a little worried about our overheated marketplace, low inventories and multiple offers, not good in the long term.

See this graph and guess where we are now:

http://www.mississauga4sale.com/Market-Emotions-Cycle.htm#graph

A mere 13 months ago we were at the point of panic and despondency. In January of this year, our local Mississauga real estate market (and most likely the GTA real estate market too) reached bottom, we were at the point of maximum financial opportunity. It looked like our real estate market and 2009 was headed for the pits, just like the US. I was uttering the words that I uttered in the years of our last recession, 1990 to 1994, the same words that many real estate agents were saying during the same time period, that was:

"Please God let there be another real estate boom and I promise not to p's (the slang word for 'urinate' but don't want to swear) away all my earnings like I did the last time" and that was how I was feeling and so were many other real estate agents last fall and early this year.

Not any more, real estate agents were euphoric for most of this year, the only complaint now is that you can't find any properties to sell to 10 buyers waiting to buy. That's not good!

I blogged about my worries, but month by month our market improved.

And here we are, skyrocketing prices, all time high prices on TREB and still people are buying.

When will it end? Maybe it won't, maybe it will just slow down a little and come back to a more 'normal' marketplace. Only time will tell, but be careful.

I wish you all the best!
Mark

CMHC predictions on Mortgage Rates, Employment, Income, Net Migration, Natural Population Increase, Resale Market and Vacancy Rates

How do these 6 important key indicators affect our economy and what does CMHC predict for each of the next year, very interesting reading!

Mark

1. Mortgage Rates
2. Employment Income
3. Net Migration
4. Natural Population Increase
5. Resale Market
6. Vacancy Rates

Movements in mortgage rates are difficult to predict due to uncertain economic conditions. Nevertheless, rates are expected to remain steady this year and gradually rise over the course of 2010. Mortgage rates will remain very low in a historical context.

Due to the economic downturn of 2009, employment is expected to decrease this year. However, 2010 should see economic conditions improve, which will help employment turn back up in 2010.

Over the past few years, tight labour markets have put strong upward pressure on personal income growth. For 2009, softer labour markets will cause growth in wages and incomes to moderate. In 2010, income growth will strengthen, along with economic activity.

Net migration is forecast to decrease from record levels in 2008, but will remain relatively high. An improving job market will favour an increase in net migration for 2010.

The low birth rate is the major factor in the slowing of growth in the natural population (births minus deaths). This will lessen the demand for additional housing stock in the medium and longer term.

Sales on the existing home market have rebounded in 2009, which has caused markets to move from buyers’ to sellers’ conditions. While MLS® sales are expected to moderate from the near-record levels of the second and third quarters of 2009, sellers’ markets conditions will put upward pressure on house prices in 2009 and 2010.

Increased competition from the condo market and modest rental construction will be partly offset by rental demand. As a result, vacancy rates across

Canada’s metropolitan centres will remain relatively stable this year and next.

I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!

All the Best!

Mark

A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate

Thinking of Selling? Best Mortgage Rates Current Home Prices Search MLS Newsletter
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987
( BUS 905-828-3434
2 FAX 905-828-2829 ÈCELL 416-520-1577
› E-MAIL : mailto:mark@mississauga4sale.com?subject=Mississauga
Website : Mississauga4Sale.com

• Thinking of selling your home in the next 3 to 6 months? Would you like a Complimentary & Quick Over-The-Net Home Evaluation ?
• Power of Sales and Foreclosures
• If you have not already signed up to receive my monthly real estate newsletter, you may do so here: On-Line Real Estate Newsletter sign up
• See seasonal housing patterns
• Would you like me to send you a 2009 Calendar?

Current mortgage interest rates in the GTA

This table shows the current mortgage interest rates that are posted and that are attainable in the marketplace as of Thursday November 12th

Enjoy!

Mark

TERM	POSTED	Obtainable RATES*
6 Month	4.6%	3.65%
1 Year	3.75%	2.66%
2 Year	4.05%	3.05%
3 Year	4.6%	3.47%
4 Year	5.29%	3.99%
5 Year	5.78%	3.99%
7 Year	6.6%	5.2%
10 Year	6.7%	5.3%
Variable Rate		2.15%
Prime Rate		2.25%

* Rates may vary and are subject to change without notice.
Rates Last Updated: Thursday, November 12, 2009

I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!

All the Best!

Mark

A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate

Thinking of Selling? Best Mortgage Rates Current Home Prices Search MLS Newsletter
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987
( BUS 905-828-3434
2 FAX 905-828-2829 ÈCELL 416-520-1577
› E-MAIL : mailto:mark@mississauga4sale.com?subject=Mississauga
Website : Mississauga4Sale.com

• Thinking of selling your home in the next 3 to 6 months? Would you like a Complimentary & Quick Over-The-Net Home Evaluation ?
• Power of Sales and Foreclosures
• If you have not already signed up to receive my monthly real estate newsletter, you may do so here: On-Line Real Estate Newsletter sign up
• See seasonal housing patterns
• Would you like me to send you a 2009 Calendar?

CMHC's predictions on mortgage rates

This is CMHC's prediction on mortgage rates in 2010

Trends Impacting Housing

Mortgage Rates

The Bank of Canada cut the Target for the Overnight Rate in the early months of 2009. The rate was 1.50 per cent at the start of 2009 and has since fallen to 0.25 per cent. The Bank has committed to keeping this rate at 0.25 per cent through the middle of 2010, unless inflationary pressures warrant an increase.

Mortgage rates have fallen over the course of 2009, but are now expected to remain relatively stable for the rest of the year.

Posted mortgage rates will gradually increase through 2010, but will do so at a slow pace.

For 2010, the one-year posted mortgage rate will be in the 3.50-4.25 per cent range, while three and five-year posted mortgage rates are forecast to be in the 4.50-6.00 per cent range.

I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!

All the Best!

Mark

A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate

Thinking of Selling? Best Mortgage Rates Current Home Prices Search MLS Newsletter
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987
( BUS 905-828-3434
2 FAX 905-828-2829 ÈCELL 416-520-1577
› E-MAIL : mailto:mark@mississauga4sale.com?subject=Mississauga
Website : Mississauga4Sale.com

• Thinking of selling your home in the next 3 to 6 months? Would you like a Complimentary & Quick Over-The-Net Home Evaluation ?
• Power of Sales and Foreclosures
• If you have not already signed up to receive my monthly real estate newsletter, you may do so here: On-Line Real Estate Newsletter sign up
• See seasonal housing patterns
• Would you like me to send you a 2009 Calendar?