Tuesday, May 22, 2012

Real Estate Predictions for the GTA marketplace

These are my observations of the current and future GTA and Mississauga Real Estate Marketplace.

Many are predicting a "market crash"

Many have been predicting we are in a bubble in the GTA for about the past 2 years or so. Certainly the market is overheated. There are many reasons for this.
*
Lack of supply and low interest rates have pushed up prices to record highs.
*
There is uneasiness in the economy, especially the USA and global areas.
*
The underlying economy doesn't support the rise in the market, we've drawn the people into the market due to low rates.
*
Consumer confidence is lower and so is the supply of listings, people are feeling a little less confident to move up, so this is the reason that the number of listings is down and has been down since 2009.
*
Once the job market and Europe and USA economies pick up then consumer confidence will improve and then they'll put more homes on the market and we should have a more balanced market.

The condo market is the area that I see softening a little over the next couple of year, many new buildings coming on stream and this may create a bit of a glut of condos on the market - prices for condos are already
softening. Once rates begin to rise, probably not until late next year, first time buyers will not be able to buy as much as they are now and the market should adjust somewhat.

This is what I see for the next 6 months or so:
1.
Prices will rise in the next few months due to high demand and low supply.
2.
Ownership should remain flat and fewer first time buyers on the market as the rates increase along with more listings thus slower price growth.
3.
There are considerable opportunities to purchase for long term price growth in some of the outlying areas, such as Brampton, Milton, Burlington and north Oakville. This would be similar to what we have seen in
Mississauga with price increases from the mid 90's to 2010 or so.
4.
I feel the condominium investor should be very cautious as we may see a pullback in prices which will help stabilize the marketplace.
5.
Thus, I don't see any "crash" in the marketplace, just a softening of prices, but not at least until the 3rd or 4th quarter this year.

I have been uneasy about the marketplace since about 2002 and we continue to see year over year price increases. The average price has increased for 17 years in a row, see the graph
<http://www.mississauga4sale.com/TREBavg1995date.htm> here and here
<http://www.mississauga4sale.com/TREBprice.htm#graph> , this makes me a little uneasy, but the fundamentals of the marketplace and the economy are far different compared to any time in the past.

I hope this helps you with your real estate decisions. You will have to make your own decision based upon your personal situation and how you feel about the marketplace, I know it's not easy.

Maybe you want an over the internet evaluation of your home just to give you an idea of your current value. We can do this with no obligation. Would you like a Complimentary
<http://www.mississauga4sale.com/internet-evaluation.htm> & Quick Over-The-Net Home Evaluation ?

Mark

Friday, May 18, 2012

2.99% for 4 Year Mortgage! Mortgage interest rate promotion

I recently was emailed a fabulous mortgage rate promotion. See the rates
below.

Thanks to recent renewed trouble in Europe, we see some new mortgage rate
promotion.




4 year fixed at 2.99%, fully qualified deals only. This promotion is ending
at May 22.

3 year fixed at 2.99%.

Please let me know if you have any other questions or require further
information about this promotion.

Thank you,

Mark

Friday, April 06, 2012

Latest Toronto GTA real estate marketplace from the Toronto Real Estate Board April 2012

This is a summary of the latest GTA real estate marketplace from the Toronto Real Estate Board

Average price in March as $504,117 up 10% compared to March 2011 and volume of sale are up about 8%


See the graphs at my site


Read the full report below.

GTA REALTORS(r) Report Monthly Resale Housing Market Figures

Toronto, April 4, 2012 - Greater Toronto REALTORS(r) reported 9,690 sales through the TorontoMLS System in March 2012. This result was up by almost eight per cent in comparison to the 8,986 deals reported during the same period in 2011.

"The GTA resale market has not suffered from a lack of willing buyers this year. Buyers have been spurred on by the positive affordability picture brought about by low mortgage rates," said Toronto Real Estate Board President Richard Silver. "The challenge has been a lack of inventory. Many listings have attracted multiple interested buyers. Strong competition has led to annual rates of price growth well above the long-term average."

The average selling price in the GTA was $504,117 in March - up by 10.5 per cent in comparison to March 2011.

"The number of new listings was up last month in comparison to March 2011.



However, based on the historic relationship between price and listings, the GTA resale market should be better supplied. If competition between buyers remains as strong as it is right now, we will almost certainly see an average selling price above $500,000 for 2012 as a whole," said Jason Mercer, TREB's Senior Manager of Market Analysis.



I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!

All the Best!

Mark

A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987
BUS 905-828-3434
FAX 905-828-2829 CELL 416-520-1577
mark@mississauga4sale.com
Mississauga4Sale.com

* Thinking of selling your home in the next 3 to 6 months? Would you
like a Complimentary & Quick Over-The-Net Home Evaluation ?
www.mississauga4sale.com/internet-evaluation.htm


* Power of Sales and Foreclosures
www.mississauga4sale.com/Power-Sales-Bank-Sales-Alert-Request.htm


* If you have not already signed up to receive my monthly real estate
newsletter, you may do so here: On-Line Real Estate Newsletter sign up
www.mississauga4sale.com/popupquestion.htm


* See seasonal housing patterns
www.mississauga4sale.com/TREBprice.htm


* Would you like me to send you a desk or wall Calendar?
www.mississauga4sale.com/Calendar-Order-Form.htm

Wednesday, March 28, 2012

Mortgage Rates On The Rise

Just as soon as I posted that fixed rates are currently excellent and it's a great time to lock in, then I received the email below that fixed mortgage rates are on the rise!

Could be time to lock in..... read below

Mark


_____

From: Mortgage consultant
Sent: Tuesday, March 27, 2012 8:51 PM
Subject: Mortgage Rates On The Rise

Mortgage Rate Bulletin

RBC and TD have announced mortgage rate hikes effective this Thursday March
29th... Other lenders are sure to follow!

Get your applications in now to get your 120 rate holds before rates go up.

10 year fixed rates still available at 3.99% and are looking better and
better right now!

5 year fixed rates still available at 2.99%

If you need mortgage help, please contact me!

Mark

Are rates about to increase? Mortgage Interest Rate outlook

We have seen a price war for 4 year mortgage interest rates for the past couple of weeks. BMO was one of the first out of the gate to offer 2.99% for a 4 year mortgage, the other banks and lenders followed shortly thereafter.
Now you can see 5 and 10 year mortgage interest rates at absurdly low levels.
I've seen 5 year fixed rate mortgages at 3.5% which is unbelievably low.
Fixed rate mortgages are very attractive right now.
I've written many articles about staying with short term mortgage rates at this page:
<http://www.mississauga4sale.com/Lock-In-Short-Term-Long-Term-Mortgage.htm>
http://www.mississauga4sale.com/Lock-In-Short-Term-Long-Term-Mortgage.htm
My preference for many years has been to go variable, but if you are not a gambler, then it could be getting close to the time where you lock in your mortgage.
Read the article below that just appeared in the POST, it's very interesting what the experts are saying.
Stay Tuned.......
All the best!
Mark


The logic is pretty simple. You hit rock bottom and there is no where else to go but up.




Mortgage rates on terms of five years and 10 years have never been this low. You can go back 50 years and not find a rate of 2.99% from one of the major banks for a fixed-rate product for five years. The 10-year, an almost unheard of length for most Canadians to commit to, has touched down at below 4%. Even sticking it out with a variable-rate product linked to the prime lending rate still looks pretty good with most major financial institutions offering some type of discount off their 3% floating rate. Already there are signs rates could be on the increase. The bond market - which mortgage rates are based on - has been rising fast and the big banks say their most recent specials will come to an end this week. But even with a 50 basis point increase, a five-year fixed closed mortgage of 3.5% is almost unheard of historically. "Everybody is looking at the bottom here and thinking, 'When are rates going to go up?'"  .Even among the experts, few foresaw this price war in the mortgage sector. "With the big banks getting very aggressive again, it took a lot of people by surprise," said Mr. Mangaroo. "I think people were thinking the status quo would hold for a while." .He says the last Bank of Canada announcement about the economy had people thinking at some point the overnight lending rate, which impacts the prime lending rate, would go up, but not this year. "Now that people are thinking of early 2013, that has people talking but really that is just so far out says Mr. Mangaroo. "It's really just an abstract concept at this point." Craig Alexander, chief economist with Toronto-Dominion Bank, says he can understand how there might be some fatigue from consumers hearing about rising rates. "Unfortunately, we have been saying for years 'that's it, rates can't go any lower than they are today' and then they are [lower] 12 months later," Mr. Alexander says. .But this time out, he says, it almost seems impossible that rates on a five-year closed mortgage could go lower than the current 3%. "Short of the Canadian economy going into a recession and causing the Bank of Canada to cut rates back to their all-time low, there really isn't an environment that would lead to significantly lower mortgage rates," Mr. Alexander says. "The downside here is extraordinarily limited." The real risk for the consumer might be not locking in right now. While no one is expecting the overnight rate to go up anytime soon - discounts off the prime lending rate might even improve if the economic uncertainty calms in some parts of the world - the 50-year-low rates today could become hard to find. "If the economic forecasters are wrong about the outlook for growth and things turn out better than anticipated, then bond yield will rise, we'll have a steeper yield curve and higher fixed mortgage rates," Mr. Alexander says. "You won't be able to get what is offered today in 12 months time. They could go up half a percentage point or higher." In the interim, Gregory Klump, chief economist with Canadian Real Estate Association, says in terms of profitability, there is room for the banks to go lower on rates, but margins for the banks are so thin he doesn't expect it happen. "We are not out of the woods yet in terms of a clear picture that growth is going to strengthen," says Mr. Klump about the catalyst that could drive up bond rates, which would impact mortgage rates. "My own view is growth may well weaken." He predicts that any rise in rates will happen slowly, which the housing market would more easily absorb. "I do not expect it," Mr. Klump says about the type of interest rate shock that could send housing sales tumbling. Author Garth Turner, a noted pessimist on the fortunes of housing these days, thinks those who want to be in the market for a house should probably be grabbing on to long-term products. He says the banks know the housing market is already shrinking and are scrambling for a larger share of the mortgage market, something that also allows them to cross-sell other products like RRSPs to consumers. "The writing is already on the wall, prices will be declining," Mr. Turner says. "The Bank of Canada will be raising rates." A Bank of Canada hike will make variable rates rise fast, and he agrees the present day rates could look very good in a few years. "If you want to be a homeowner, it is an appealing product. Three or fours years from now, these rates could look absurd. I have no problem with being in real estate as long as it's not the bulk of your net worth. If you are getting into real estate now though and leveraging up, you are going to be unhappy about it," says Mr. Turner, adding the raising rate environment will hurt sales and prices will follow quickly. Don Lawby, chief executive of Century 21, says the rate wars going on right now combined with the unusually warm winter have already boosted housing sales, which could leave little demand left for the spring market. "Interest rates are low and they probably can't go any lower than they are," says Mr. Lawby, who thinks there is not much room for housing prices to go higher. "I looked around and say if the local economy stays good, the market can stay good. But these low rates are very key."

I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!
All the Best!
Mark
A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987
BUS 905-828-3434
FAX 905-828-2829 CELL 416-520-1577
mark@mississauga4sale.com
Mississauga4Sale.com
* Thinking of selling your home in the next 3 to 6 months? Would you
like a Complimentary & Quick Over-The-Net Home Evaluation ?
www.mississauga4sale.com/internet-evaluation.htm

* Power of Sales and Foreclosures
www.mississauga4sale.com/Power-Sales-Bank-Sales-Alert-Request.htm

* If you have not already signed up to receive my monthly real estate
newsletter, you may do so here: On-Line Real Estate Newsletter sign up
www.mississauga4sale.com/popupquestion.htm

* See seasonal housing patterns
www.mississauga4sale.com/TREBprice.htm

* Would you like me to send you a desk or wall Calendar?
www.mississauga4sale.com/Calendar-Order-Form.htm







































Friday, March 23, 2012

Mid-month report for March 2012 from TREB Real Estate

GTA REALTORS® Report Mid-Month Resale Housing Market Figures

TORONTO, March 19, 2012 –During the first 14 days of March, Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 4,215 transactions through the TorontoMLS system, representing a seven per cent increase compared to the same period in 2011. The number of new listings was down by two per cent year-over-year to 6,970.


“Home buyers continue to benefit from the affordable housing situation in the GTA. Immigration to Toronto and surrounding areas adds to the pool of home buyers every year. The economic and ethnic diversity found in the GTA consistently attracts newcomers and foreign investment,” said Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) President Richard Silver.


The average selling price for transactions between March 1 and 14 was $502,155 – up by more than nine per cent compared to the first 14 days of March 2011. On average, homes sold for 100 per cent of the asking price within three weeks.


“Strong competition between home buyers in many parts of the GTA has resulted in sellers realizing their asking price in a short period of time. The fact that homes are selling for 100 per cent of the asking price, on average, suggests that sellers are very much in tune with the current market situation and know the fair market value of their home,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Senior Manager of Market Analysis











Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) Average Prices and Graph

For more information please contact A. Mark Argentino

A. Mark Argentino, Broker, P.Eng.,
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc., Brokerage
2691 Credit Valley Road, Suite 101, Mississauga, Ontario L5M 7A1
BUS. 905-828-3434
FAX. 905-828-2829
E-MAIL: mark@mississauga4sale.com
Website: Mississauga4Sale.com

Average Housing Prices for Major cities across Canada


CMHC published a report showing the average MLS price in each major city in Canada for 2010, see the image below:


























Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) Average Prices and Graph



For more information please contact A. Mark Argentino

A. Mark Argentino, Broker, P.Eng.,
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc., Brokerage
2691 Credit Valley Road, Suite 101, Mississauga, Ontario L5M 7A1
BUS. 905-828-3434
FAX. 905-828-2829
E-MAIL: mark@mississauga4sale.com
Website: Mississauga4Sale.com

Wednesday, March 21, 2012

This is the latest Economic News from TD Canada Trust

Below is the latest report from TD Canada Trust with regards to the economy and decided to keep the federal funds interest rate unchanged at 0% to 0.25% until at least the end of 2014

This is good news if you are borrowing money over the next 2 years! See the press release below
Please let me know if you have any other questions or require further information.

Thank you,

Mark



Data Release: FOMC maintains the status quo, provides no sign of further
stimulus discussion

The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep the target range for
the federal funds rate unchanged at 0.0% to 0.25% at least through
late-2014. The Committee also decided to continue its program to extend the
average maturity of its holdings of securities - "operation twist".


Supporting their decision, FOMC members noted that, despite the recent
decline in the unemployment rate, unemployment remains high and they still
expect it to gradually decline towards levels consistent with the Fed's dual
mandate.


They also characterized the economic outlook as one of "moderate" economic
growth and "temporary" higher inflation caused by the recent spike in crude
oil and gasoline prices.


Moreover, committee members acknowledged the easing of global financial
markets strains, but reaffirmed their concern that those strains continue to
pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook.


Jeffrey Lacker once again expressed his disagreement with the after-meeting
communiqué. In particular, Mr. Lacker does not share the view that economic
conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal
funds rate through late-2014.


Key Implications


At its previous meeting in late-January, FOMC members had decided to extend
the conditional commitment to low interest rates from mid-2013 to the
current late-2014 stated date. In addition, they had provided clarification
on how the FOMC interprets its dual mandate of price stability and maximum
employment. Lastly, to further enhance the Fed's communication strategy,
they had released interest rate projections from all committee participants.
Given this precedent, there was very little expectation heading into today's
meeting that the after-meeting communiqué would deliver anything more than
what it actually did.


Recently there has been some speculation about the possibility that the Fed
could engage in "sterilized" bond purchases as a way to keep a lid on
interest rates while avoiding a potential inflationary expansion in money
supply. The recent improvement in labor market data, combined with the rise
in gasoline prices observed since the FOMC last met certainly did not set
the ground for any mention of further monetary stimulus in today's
statement.


o see if that discussion actually occurred at today's meeting, we will have
to wait until the Fed releases the minutes on April 4th.


I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!

All the Best!

Mark

A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987
BUS 905-828-3434
FAX 905-828-2829 CELL 416-520-1577
mark@mississauga4sale.com
Mississauga4Sale.com

* Thinking of selling your home in the next 3 to 6 months? Would you
like a Complimentary & Quick Over-The-Net Home Evaluation ?
www.mississauga4sale.com/internet-evaluation.htm


* Power of Sales and Foreclosures
www.mississauga4sale.com/Power-Sales-Bank-Sales-Alert-Request.htm


* If you have not already signed up to receive my monthly real estate
newsletter, you may do so here: On-Line Real Estate Newsletter sign up
www.mississauga4sale.com/popupquestion.htm


* See seasonal housing patterns
www.mississauga4sale.com/TREBprice.htm


* Would you like me to send you a desk or wall Calendar?
www.mississauga4sale.com/Calendar-Order-Form.htm

Monday, March 19, 2012

Is it time to lock in your mortgage rate?

I was asked by Harry

"Hi Mark,

Hope all is well.

I have been on variable rate since I spoke with you last. I have an opportunity to lock in my mortgages at 2.99% for 4 years. Is it a wise move under today's conditions?

Thanks in advance.
Harry"

Hello Harry,

Yes, I saw this rate and blogged about it last week! Not sure if you saw it or not:

Long term mortgage rates

It's a judgment call on your part, there are some severe restrictions that you must be aware of. There are discounts on these 'posted' rates, so ask for a discount.

We may find that the variable rates drop again to prime minus, maybe they will go to prime minus .9% again and that's 2.1% and you may regret the 2.99%

Funny thing is, when rates were 10 to 14% for about 15 years in the late 80's to early 2000's you would have jumped at 2.99% and thought you won the lottery.

Our mortgages are all variable, prime minus, so I'm still staying where we are for at least the next 6 to 12 months or most likely longer.

Again, it's how much risk you are willing to take.

I wish you the best and let me know what you decide!
Mark

Friday, March 16, 2012

ADU's or Additional Dwelling Units in Mississauga, Toronto and GTA - Update

This is a minor update to the law and Bill 140 that changes the planning act in Ontario to allow second dwelling units in detached, semi detached or row dwellings, with the following definitions and changes.

Specifically the act now states:


Amendments to Planning Act

1. Clause 2 (j) of the Planning Act is repealed and the following
substituted:

(j) the adequate provision of a full range of housing, including
affordable housing;

2. Section 16 of the Act is amended by adding the following subsection:

Second unit policies

(3) Without limiting what an official plan is required to or may contain
under subsection (1) or (2), an official plan shall contain policies that
authorize the use of a second residential unit by authorizing,

(a) the use of two residential units in a detached house, semi-detached
house or rowhouse if no building or structure ancillary to the detached
house, semi-detached house or rowhouse contains a residential unit; and

(b) the use of a residential unit in a building or structure ancillary to
a detached house, semi-detached house or rowhouse if the detached house,
semi-detached house or rowhouse contains a single residential unit.

3. (1) Subsection 17 (24.1) of the Act is repealed and the following
substituted:

No appeal re second unit policies

(24.1) Despite subsection (24), there is no appeal in respect of the
policies described in subsection 16 (3), including, for greater certainty,
any requirements or standards that are part of such policies.

(2) Subsection 17 (36.1) of the Act is repealed and the following
substituted:

No appeal re second unit policies

(36.1) Despite subsection (36), there is no appeal in respect of the
policies described in subsection 16 (3), including, for greater certainty,
any requirements or standards that are part of such policies.

4. Clause 22 (7.2) (c) of the Act is repealed and the following
substituted:

(c) amend or revoke the policies described in subsection 16 (3),
including, for greater certainty, any requirements or standards that are
part of such policies.

5. Subsection 34 (19.1) of the Act is repealed and the following
substituted:

No appeal re second unit policies

(19.1) Despite subsection (19), there is no appeal in respect of a
by-law that gives effect to the policies described in subsection 16 (3),
including, for greater certainty, no appeal in respect of any requirement or
standard in such a by-law.

6. The Act is amended by adding the following section:

By-laws to give effect to second unit policies

35.1 (1) The council of each local municipality shall ensure that the
by-laws passed under section 34 give effect to the policies described in
subsection 16 (3).

Regulations

(2) The Minister may make regulations,

(a) authorizing the use of residential units referred to in subsection 16
(3);

(b) establishing requirements and standards with respect to residential
units referred to in subsection 16 (3).

Regulation applies as zoning by-law

(3) A regulation under subsection (2) applies as though it is a by-law
passed under section 34.

Regulation prevails

(4) A regulation under subsection (2) prevails over a by-law passed
under section 34 to the extent of any inconsistency, unless the regulation
provides otherwise.

Exception

(5) A regulation under subsection (2) may provide that a by-law passed
under section 34 prevails over the regulation.

Regulation may be general or particular

(6) A regulation under subsection (2) may be general or particular in
its application and may be restricted to those municipalities or parts of
municipalities set out in the regulation.

7. Subsection 39.1 (3) of the Act is repealed and the following
substituted:

Area and time in effect

(3) Despite subsection 39 (2), a by-law authorizing the temporary use of
a garden suite shall define the area to which it applies and specify the
period of time for which the authorization shall be in effect, which shall
not exceed 20 years from the day of the passing of the by-law.

Commencement

8. (1) Subject to subsection (2), this Schedule comes into force on the
day the Strong Communities through Affordable Housing Act, 2011 receives
Royal Assent.

Same

(2) Sections 2 to 6 come into force on a day to be named by proclamation
of the Lieutenant Governor.




Also, the other additions to the planning act are as follows:


amendments to Planning Act

Schedule 2 amends the Planning Act.

Clause 2 (j) is replaced to add a reference to affordable housing to the
matters of provincial interest under section 2.

The new subsection 16 (3) requires an official plan to have policies that
authorize the use of a second residential unit.

The amendments to section 17 provide for there to be no appeal of a decision
to adopt or approve the second unit policies.

The amendment to section 22 provides for there to be no appeal in respect of
a request to amend or revoke the second unit policies.

The amendment to section 34 provides for there to be no appeal in respect of
a by-law to give effect to the second unit policies.

The new section 35.1 requires councils to pass zoning by-laws to give effect
to the second unit policies. The Minister may make regulations that
authorize the use of, and prescribe requirements and standards for, second
units. Such regulations will prevail over a zoning by-law passed by a
council.

The amendment to section 39.1 increases the period of time a by-law may
authorize the temporary use of a garden suite from 10 years to 20 years.

The entire bill can be found at this page:

http://www.ontla.on.ca/web/bills/bills_detail.do?locale=en
<http://www.ontla.on.ca/web/bills/bills_detail.do?locale=en&BillID=2440&deta
ilPage=bills_detail_the_bill&Intranet
>
&BillID=2440&detailPage=bills_detail_the_bill&Intranet

I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!

All the Best!

Mark

A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987
BUS 905-828-3434
FAX 905-828-2829 CELL 416-520-1577
mark@mississauga4sale.com
Mississauga4Sale.com

* Thinking of selling your home in the next 3 to 6 months? Would you
like a Complimentary & Quick Over-The-Net Home Evaluation ?
www.mississauga4sale.com/internet-evaluation.htm


* Power of Sales and Foreclosures
www.mississauga4sale.com/Power-Sales-Bank-Sales-Alert-Request.htm


* If you have not already signed up to receive my monthly real estate
newsletter, you may do so here: On-Line Real Estate Newsletter sign up
www.mississauga4sale.com/popupquestion.htm


* See seasonal housing patterns
www.mississauga4sale.com/TREBprice.htm


* Would you like me to send you a desk or wall Calendar?
www.mississauga4sale.com/Calendar-Order-Form.htm