Question about GTA market following the drop in Vancouver's real estate marketplace

I had a couple of questions from a reader.

She asked:

Thanks Mark for the statistics. My concern is although the price rise, sales volume drop by 21%. Does this signal that indicate GTA follow Vancouver style?




Media guys says Vancouver also showed high price increase st year with significant drop in sales volume and eventually ended up in falling prices.

and I responded:   Yes, I understand your concern. Many feel that this may spill over to the GTA marketplace. Nobody can predict the future. Our GTA marketplace has slowed slightly over the past few months but it's too early to tell if this is a seasonal slowdown or the beginning of an overall slowdown.   Our prices have not skyrocketed at the same pace as Vancouver over the past 5 or 10 years, so personally, I don't think our market will drop as it has in Vancouver.

and she responded:

Thanks Mark for the clarification. I agree no one can predict the future with 100% certainty.
I too believe sales drop may be seasonal based on the sales trends
2010 -1st half sales were up but 2nd half sales were down.
2011 1st 4 month sales were down but 2nd half was up
2012 First half sales were up but the 2nd half were slow.


and I responded:

  Yes, your analysis and observations are correct, but, as the Royal Bank always tells me when I read about their mutual funds performance, they say, "past results are no indication of future performance" so we must always exercise caution.....   and this is the unsolicited advice I offer you today, 'exercise caution" in our real estate market over the next few months......   All the best!   Mark

The price of real estate depends upon.....

This is an interesting article

interest rates and mortgages:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/higher-mor
tgage-rates-would-hit-households-hard-bmo/article4629849/?cmpid=rss1

What happened in 2008?
After the 2007 inflation?

What happened in 1988-1996?
After the 1970s stagflation?

And what will happen in the future?

Interest rates will stay low FOREVER and EVER?

Live long enough and find out.

The article states: "with signs the real estate market could now be turning
a corner after years of strong growth" and this is true, our market has been
soft since about Labour Day with no reason to rebound between now and
December, this indicates a downturn in prices, it's coming

The Fed's have a bid problem on their hands, with low rates people are
borrowing and increasing their debt but if they increased the bank rate it
would cause panic - what to do?!

I don't feel we are at the precipice of a giant slide in prices, more of a
small adjustment, maybe 10% drop or so and then a leveling out

As long as there are jobs and people are working, the economy should
survive, otherwise.......


I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!

All the Best!

Mark

A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987
BUS 905-828-3434
FAX 905-828-2829 CELL 416-520-1577
mark@mississauga4sale.com
Mississauga4Sale.com

* Thinking of selling your home in the next 3 to 6 months? Would you
like a Complimentary & Quick Over-The-Net Home Evaluation ?
www.mississauga4sale.com/internet-evaluation.htm


* Power of Sales and Foreclosures
www.mississauga4sale.com/Power-Sales-Bank-Sales-Alert-Request.htm


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www.mississauga4sale.com/TREBprice.htm


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GTA REALTORSR RELEASE MONTHLY RESALE HOUSING FIGURES

this is the latest report from TREB on the sales and average prices for
September


GTA REALTORS(r) RELEASE MONTHLY RESALE HOUSING FIGURES

TORONTO, October 3, 2012 - Greater Toronto Area (GTA) REALTORS(r) reported
5,879 transactions through the TorontoMLS system in September 2012. The
average selling price for these transactions was $503,662, representing an
increase of more than 8.5 per cent compared to last year.

The number of transactions was down by 21 per cent in comparison to
September 2011. However, it is important to note that there were two fewer
working days in September 2012 compared to September 2011. The majority of
transactions are entered on working days. On a per working day basis, sales
were down by 12.5 per cent year-over-year.

"While sales have been lower due to stricter mortgage lending guidelines, we
continue to see substantial competition between buyers. The months of
inventory trend remains low from a historic perspective, which explains the
strong price increases we are experiencing," said Toronto Real Estate Board
President Ann Hannah.

September average selling prices were up compared to last year for all major
home types. Price growth was strongest in the City of Toronto, including
condominium apartments with eight per cent year-over-year growth. All
benchmark home types included in the MLS(r) Home Price Index (MLS(r) HPI)
experienced year-over-year price increases, with substantially stronger
increases for low-rise home types.

"Barring a major change to the consensus economic outlook, home price growth
is expected to continue through 2013. Based on inventory levels, price
growth will be strongest for low-rise home types, including single-detached
and semi-detached houses and town homes," said TREB's Senior Manager of
Market Analysis, Jason Mercer.

Mark

September 2012 latest figures from the Toronto Real Estate Board

These are the latest figures from the Toronto Real Estate Board

http://www.mississauga4sale.com/TREBprice.htm


GTA REALTORS(r) RELEASE MONTHLY RESALE MARKET FIGURES

TORONTO, September 6, 2012 - Greater Toronto Area (GTA) REALTORS(r) reported
6,418 sales through the TorontoMLS system in August 2012, representing a
year-over-decline of almost 12.5 per cent compared to 7,330 sales reported
in August 2011. The number of new listings reported in August was down by
5.5 per cent compared to the same period in 2011.

"Residential transactions were down in August compared to last year.
Stricter mortgage lending guidelines, which came into effect in July,
arguably played a role. In the City of Toronto, the additional impact of
relatively higher home prices coupled with the upfront cost associated with
the City's Land Transfer Tax led to a stronger annual decline in sales
compared to the rest of the GTA," said Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB)
President Ann Hannah.

The average selling price for August 2012 transactions was $479,095 - up by
almost 6.5 per cent compared to August 2011. The annual rate of price growth
was driven by the low-rise home segment in the City of Toronto, including
single-detached homes with an average annual price increase of 15 per cent.
The MLS(r) Home Price Index (MLS(r) HPI)* composite index, which allows for
an apples-to-apples comparison of benchmark home prices from one year to the
next, was up by 6.3 per cent year-over-year.

"While sales were down year-over-year in the GTA, so too were new listings.
As a result, market conditions remained quite tight with substantial
competition between buyers in the low-rise market segment," said Jason
Mercer, TREB's Senior Manager of Market Analysis. "The trends for sales and
new listings are moving somewhat in synch, suggesting that the relationship
between sales and listings will continue to promote price growth moving
forward."

I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!

All the Best!

Mark

A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987
BUS 905-828-3434
FAX 905-828-2829 CELL 416-520-1577
mark@mississauga4sale.com
Mississauga4Sale.com

* Thinking of selling your home in the next 3 to 6 months? Would you
like a Complimentary & Quick Over-The-Net Home Evaluation ?
www.mississauga4sale.com/internet-evaluation.htm


* Power of Sales and Foreclosures
www.mississauga4sale.com/Power-Sales-Bank-Sales-Alert-Request.htm


* If you have not already signed up to receive my monthly real estate
newsletter, you may do so here: On-Line Real Estate Newsletter sign up
www.mississauga4sale.com/popupquestion.htm


* See seasonal housing patterns
www.mississauga4sale.com/TREBprice.htm


* Would you like me to send you a desk or wall Calendar?
www.mississauga4sale.com/Calendar-Order-Form.htm

New Mortgage Guidelines in Canada as per Finance Minister Jim Flaherty June 21 2012

Hello, This is a Summary of changes to mortgage guidelines as per Finance
Minister Jim Flaherty...(effective July 9th, 2012)



1) The maximum amortization period for purchases with less than a 20% down
payment will be 25 years (down from 30 years)

2) Home owners will only be able to refinance their homes up to 80% of the
home's value (down from 85%)

3) The government is also resetting the maximum Gross Debt Servicing ratio
(GDS) to 39% and the Total Debt Servicing ratio (TDS) to 44% (Currently, GDS
does not apply to qualified borrowers with credit scores of 680+) ***see
below for info GDS and TDS

4) Mortgage Insurance will no longer be available of homes over $1 million
(you will need to have at least 20% down payment)



OSFI (The Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions Canada is
the primary regulator and supervisor of federally regulated deposit-taking
institutions



Also announced the following changes...

1) The maximum loan to value on home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) is
cut to 65% from 80%

2) The loan to value will be re-calculated upon any refinancing and
whenever the lender deems prudent

3) HELOCs will continue to serve as revolving lines of credit with no
specific amortization period. However, OSFI says lenders must now expect
borrowers to have the ability to fully repay HELOCs over time.



Debt Ratios (GDS / TDS Ratios)

Lenders have long relied on two standard measures of one's "ability to pay"
their mortgage:



Gross Debt Service (GDS): The percentage of the borrower's income that is
needed to pay all required monthly housing costs (mortgage payments,
property taxes, heat and 50% of condo fees).



Total Debt Service (TDS): The percentage of the borrower's income that is
needed to cover housing costs (GDS) plus any other monthly obligations that
an individual has, such as credit card payments and car payments.

The acceptable ratios for both have generally been 32% and 40% respectively.

For people with very high credit scores, GDS requirements are often waived
and the TDS maximum is slightly higher (44% as of January 2011).

I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!

All the Best!

Mark

A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987
BUS 905-828-3434
FAX 905-828-2829 CELL 416-520-1577
mark@mississauga4sale.com
Mississauga4Sale.com

* Thinking of selling your home in the next 3 to 6 months? Would you
like a Complimentary & Quick Over-The-Net Home Evaluation ?
www.mississauga4sale.com/internet-evaluation.htm


* Power of Sales and Foreclosures
www.mississauga4sale.com/Power-Sales-Bank-Sales-Alert-Request.htm


* If you have not already signed up to receive my monthly real estate
newsletter, you may do so here: On-Line Real Estate Newsletter sign up
www.mississauga4sale.com/popupquestion.htm


* See seasonal housing patterns
www.mississauga4sale.com/TREBprice.htm


* Would you like me to send you a desk or wall Calendar?
www.mississauga4sale.com/Calendar-Order-Form.htm

GTA REALTORSR Report Mid-Month Resale Housing Market Figures

Below is the mid month report from the Toronto Real Estate board regarding
sales in the GTA

Summary


* Sales activity is flat compared to June of last year
* Sales price was up over 8% from last year

This is the entire report below


GTA REALTORS(r) Report Mid-Month Resale Housing Market Figures

TORONTO, June 18, 2012 - Greater Toronto REALTORS(r) reported 4,597 sales
through the first 14 days of June - a result that was on par with the strong
sales activity reported in the June 2011 mid-month release. While sales were
flat on a year-over-year basis, the total number of new listings entered
into the TorontoMLS system was up by 16 per cent to 8,382.

"Sales growth continued to be much stronger outside of the City of Toronto
in the first half of June. While higher average home prices and slower
listings growth in the City of Toronto likely explain some of the disparity
in sales growth, recent polling suggests that the City of Toronto's Land
Transfer Tax is having a substantial impact on where many households are
looking to buy," said Toronto Real Estate Board President Richard Silver.

"Recent polling indicated that three-quarters of people in Toronto and
surrounding 905 regions who are planning to move over the next two years
said that they are more likely to move outside of Toronto specifically
because of the added upfront costs associated with the Toronto Land Transfer
Tax," continued Silver.

The average selling price for transactions during the first two weeks of
June was $516,834 - up by over eight per cent compared to the average of
$477,025 reported for the first two weeks of June 2011.

"The annual rate of price growth remains very high in the GTA. Increased
listings will result in more balanced market conditions over the next year,
but it will take some time before price growth will moderate to a more
sustainable pace. Right now, months of inventory remains very low from a
historic perspective and will likely not climb back to the pre-recession
norm until 2013," said Jason Mercer, TREB's Senior Manager of Market
Analysis.



I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!

All the Best!

Mark

A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987
BUS 905-828-3434
FAX 905-828-2829 CELL 416-520-1577
mark@mississauga4sale.com
Mississauga4Sale.com

* Thinking of selling your home in the next 3 to 6 months? Would you
like a Complimentary & Quick Over-The-Net Home Evaluation ?
www.mississauga4sale.com/internet-evaluation.htm


* Power of Sales and Foreclosures
www.mississauga4sale.com/Power-Sales-Bank-Sales-Alert-Request.htm


* If you have not already signed up to receive my monthly real estate
newsletter, you may do so here: On-Line Real Estate Newsletter sign up
www.mississauga4sale.com/popupquestion.htm


* See seasonal housing patterns
www.mississauga4sale.com/TREBprice.htm


* Would you like me to send you a desk or wall Calendar?
www.mississauga4sale.com/Calendar-Order-Form.htm

Current mortgage interest rates in the GTA!

Current mortgage interest rates are excellent in the GTA!
See the rates below for samples of what is posted and what you can obtain,
not much better time than now to get a mortgage!
Mark



Best Rates

Terms Posted Rates Our Rates
6 MONTHS 4.45% 4.40%
1 YEAR 3.20% 2.75%
2 YEARS 3.55% 3.09%
3 YEARS 3.95% 3.19%
4 YEARS 4.64% 3.19%
5 YEARS 5.34% 3.14%
7 YEARS 6.35% 3.99%
10 YEARS 6.75% 3.99%
Rates are subject to change without notice. OAC E&OE


CURRENT PRIME RATE IS 3.00%

PRODUCT RATE
Variable Rate Mortgage: 2.90%




I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!

All the Best!

Mark

A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987
BUS 905-828-3434
FAX 905-828-2829 CELL 416-520-1577
mark@mississauga4sale.com
Mississauga4Sale.com

* Thinking of selling your home in the next 3 to 6 months? Would you
like a Complimentary & Quick Over-The-Net Home Evaluation ?
www.mississauga4sale.com/internet-evaluation.htm


* Power of Sales and Foreclosures
www.mississauga4sale.com/Power-Sales-Bank-Sales-Alert-Request.htm


* If you have not already signed up to receive my monthly real estate
newsletter, you may do so here: On-Line Real Estate Newsletter sign up
www.mississauga4sale.com/popupquestion.htm


* See seasonal housing patterns
www.mississauga4sale.com/TREBprice.htm


* Would you like me to send you a desk or wall Calendar?
www.mississauga4sale.com/Calendar-Order-Form.htm

Real Estate Predictions for the GTA marketplace

These are my observations of the current and future GTA and Mississauga Real Estate Marketplace.

Many are predicting a "market crash"

Many have been predicting we are in a bubble in the GTA for about the past 2 years or so. Certainly the market is overheated. There are many reasons for this.
*
Lack of supply and low interest rates have pushed up prices to record highs.
*
There is uneasiness in the economy, especially the USA and global areas.
*
The underlying economy doesn't support the rise in the market, we've drawn the people into the market due to low rates.
*
Consumer confidence is lower and so is the supply of listings, people are feeling a little less confident to move up, so this is the reason that the number of listings is down and has been down since 2009.
*
Once the job market and Europe and USA economies pick up then consumer confidence will improve and then they'll put more homes on the market and we should have a more balanced market.

The condo market is the area that I see softening a little over the next couple of year, many new buildings coming on stream and this may create a bit of a glut of condos on the market - prices for condos are already
softening. Once rates begin to rise, probably not until late next year, first time buyers will not be able to buy as much as they are now and the market should adjust somewhat.

This is what I see for the next 6 months or so:
1.
Prices will rise in the next few months due to high demand and low supply.
2.
Ownership should remain flat and fewer first time buyers on the market as the rates increase along with more listings thus slower price growth.
3.
There are considerable opportunities to purchase for long term price growth in some of the outlying areas, such as Brampton, Milton, Burlington and north Oakville. This would be similar to what we have seen in
Mississauga with price increases from the mid 90's to 2010 or so.
4.
I feel the condominium investor should be very cautious as we may see a pullback in prices which will help stabilize the marketplace.
5.
Thus, I don't see any "crash" in the marketplace, just a softening of prices, but not at least until the 3rd or 4th quarter this year.

I have been uneasy about the marketplace since about 2002 and we continue to see year over year price increases. The average price has increased for 17 years in a row, see the graph
<http://www.mississauga4sale.com/TREBavg1995date.htm> here and here
<http://www.mississauga4sale.com/TREBprice.htm#graph> , this makes me a little uneasy, but the fundamentals of the marketplace and the economy are far different compared to any time in the past.

I hope this helps you with your real estate decisions. You will have to make your own decision based upon your personal situation and how you feel about the marketplace, I know it's not easy.

Maybe you want an over the internet evaluation of your home just to give you an idea of your current value. We can do this with no obligation. Would you like a Complimentary
<http://www.mississauga4sale.com/internet-evaluation.htm> & Quick Over-The-Net Home Evaluation ?

Mark

2.99% for 4 Year Mortgage! Mortgage interest rate promotion

I recently was emailed a fabulous mortgage rate promotion. See the rates
below.

Thanks to recent renewed trouble in Europe, we see some new mortgage rate
promotion.




4 year fixed at 2.99%, fully qualified deals only. This promotion is ending
at May 22.

3 year fixed at 2.99%.

Please let me know if you have any other questions or require further
information about this promotion.

Thank you,

Mark

Latest Toronto GTA real estate marketplace from the Toronto Real Estate Board April 2012

This is a summary of the latest GTA real estate marketplace from the Toronto Real Estate Board

Average price in March as $504,117 up 10% compared to March 2011 and volume of sale are up about 8%


See the graphs at my site

Read the full report below.

GTA REALTORS(r) Report Monthly Resale Housing Market Figures

Toronto, April 4, 2012 - Greater Toronto REALTORS(r) reported 9,690 sales through the TorontoMLS System in March 2012. This result was up by almost eight per cent in comparison to the 8,986 deals reported during the same period in 2011.

"The GTA resale market has not suffered from a lack of willing buyers this year. Buyers have been spurred on by the positive affordability picture brought about by low mortgage rates," said Toronto Real Estate Board President Richard Silver. "The challenge has been a lack of inventory. Many listings have attracted multiple interested buyers. Strong competition has led to annual rates of price growth well above the long-term average."

The average selling price in the GTA was $504,117 in March - up by 10.5 per cent in comparison to March 2011.

"The number of new listings was up last month in comparison to March 2011.

However, based on the historic relationship between price and listings, the GTA resale market should be better supplied. If competition between buyers remains as strong as it is right now, we will almost certainly see an average selling price above $500,000 for 2012 as a whole," said Jason Mercer, TREB's Senior Manager of Market Analysis.

I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!

All the Best!

Mark

A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987
BUS 905-828-3434
FAX 905-828-2829 CELL 416-520-1577
mark@mississauga4sale.com
Mississauga4Sale.com

* Thinking of selling your home in the next 3 to 6 months? Would you
like a Complimentary & Quick Over-The-Net Home Evaluation ?
www.mississauga4sale.com/internet-evaluation.htm

* Power of Sales and Foreclosures
www.mississauga4sale.com/Power-Sales-Bank-Sales-Alert-Request.htm

* If you have not already signed up to receive my monthly real estate
newsletter, you may do so here: On-Line Real Estate Newsletter sign up
www.mississauga4sale.com/popupquestion.htm

* See seasonal housing patterns
www.mississauga4sale.com/TREBprice.htm

* Would you like me to send you a desk or wall Calendar?
www.mississauga4sale.com/Calendar-Order-Form.htm