Happy New Year and all the best to you and your family in 2010!
Mark
You have found the premier Mississauga Real Estate Blog. It's filled with Up-to-date and useful information about Housing Trends, Home Prices, Market Statistics, MLS Home Search, Buying and Selling Tips for Erin Mills, Meadowvale, Streetsville, Lisgar, Pheasant Run, Sawmill Valley, Credit Mills and Churchill Meadows areas of Mississauga, Ontario. Plus, you will find a few other posts about my clients real estate experiences and non real estate related topics that I hope you find of interest
Housing Starts Move Lower in
November
Total housing starts in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) fell to 2,514 units
in November, following three straight months of increases.
Starts so far this year are down by 40 percent compared to the same period
last year, but have shown improvement in the second half. Last month,
single, semi and row starts each rose to their
highest level this year. As a result of the increased demand for low-rise
housing, construction in areas such as Vaughan and Brampton has improved the
most.
The decline in November came as a result of fewer apartment starts, which
tend to show volatility from month-to-month.
Nonetheless, the trend has been moving higher since May and a rebound in new
home sales this year point towards higher starts as we move into 2010.
Bottom Reached in Housing
U.S. home sales got a lift from the government’s first-time homebuyers’ tax credit and record low mortgage rates.
Sales of both new and existing homes are running 31% higher than their recent low, albeit 25% slower than their peak pace.
This increase combined with sharply lower housing starts has reduced the inventory of unsold homes significantly. Price increases so far have been limited, with the average still about 20% lower than peak levels.
The outlook for real estate remains murky given the backlog of foreclosures and strong increases in the number of homeowners who are delinquent in making their mortgage payments.
The government’s tax credit was extended until the end of April and the base of those who qualify broadened out. With interest rates remaining low, we expect that the pace of activity will gradually pick up but expect a relatively tame recovery for this sector during the forecast period.
I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!
All the Best!
Mark
A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
Thinking of Selling? Best Mortgage Rates Current Home Prices Search MLS Newsletter
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987
( BUS 905-828-3434
2 FAX 905-828-2829 ÈCELL 416-520-1577
› E-MAIL : mailto:mark@mississauga4sale.com?subject=Mississauga
Website : Mississauga4Sale.com
New beginnings
Turning the page on 2009 will be done with great relief almost everywhere in Canada. The past year has been, by far, the toughest since the early 1990s recession and, in some cases, the early 1980s recession. Hardship was evident from coast to coast, even in parts of the country, such as Alberta, that were previously considered almost bullet-proof.
Perhaps more importantly, however, will be the full force of fiscal and monetary stimulus kicking in. Nearly all governments at the federal, provincial and municipal levels have initiated substantial infrastructure spending programs and these will be in high gear during the year ahead.
In most cases, although not all, 2010 will be the peak of stimulus spending.
The easing of monetary policy is already having a visible impact – most notably in housing resale markets across the country – and should continue to do so despite our expectation that the Bank of Canada will gradually take its feet off the gas pedal starting mid-year. Extremely low mortgage rates have been key to the spectacular rebound in housing resale activity in every province since early 2009.
The precipitous decline in activity that started late in 2008 plunged a number of provinces – including Ontario, Alberta and British Columbia – into a deep slump through the better part of the year, which reverberated loudly in regional job markets.
The ranks of the unemployed swelled and unemployment rates surged broadly, reaching the highest levels since the 1990s in Ontario and Alberta.
While many challenges will remain, 2010 promises a widespread turnaround in economic performance, albeit a modest one at first. A more sanguine global context will sharply contrast with the meltdown on the world stage that took place in 2008 and early 2009. With the financial crisis behind us and the U.S. economy on the mend, factors “external” to the provincial economies are expected to contribute positively to growth again.
In turn, this housing resurgence should be seen as evidence that consumers are feeling more upbeat even in areas of the country such as British Columbia, Ontario and Alberta where the recession caused substantial damage.
The price tag for the fiscal stimulus is enormous – huge budget deficits.
Collectively, the provinces are projecting shortfalls totaling $38.2 billion in the 2009-10 fiscal year and at least $30.2 billion in 2010-11 (with two provinces not providing estimates), both records in terms of value. However, relative to GDP, the deficits will be modestly milder than the peaks recorded in the early 1990s.
While running up huge budget shortfalls might cause some discomfort, the alternative was even less attractive given the severity of the economic downturn. Nonetheless, returning to balance during the medium-term will be a challenge involving difficult choices. ECONOMICS I RESEARCH
In this update, there is little change to the big picture from our September Provincial Outlook: the contraction in activity is still seen to be widely spread in 2009 among provinces (with Manitoba and Nova Scotia the only exceptions)and the expected recovery to be equally generalized in 2010.
On the upside, there have been some upward revisions to New Brunswick and Nova Scotia in both 2009 and 2010 (Nova Scotia is now projected to be flat in 2009), and Quebec and Manitoba in 2009.
In this report, we are also introducing forecasts for 2011, which generally depict provincial economies strengthening further. The western part of the country – led by Saskatchewan – is generally expected to grow faster than the national
average of 3.9% with the exception of British Columbia, which will be feeling some post-Olympics moderation.
However, we have made minor revisions to some provincial forecasts. The most significant change has been for Newfoundland & Labrador, where longer-than-expected production shutdowns in the mining sector have prompted us to deepen the real GDP decline in 2009 by one percentage point to 4.5% and to bump up growth slightly in 2010 to 2.4% from 2%.
Smaller downward revisions have also been made to Alberta (to reflect weaker-than-expected momentum at this stage) in both 2009 and 2010, Saskatchewan in 2009 (in light of the dramatic drop in potash production) and Ontario in 2009 and 2010 (a larger-than-expected decline in the second quarter of 2009 and slightly more subdued recovery in 2010).
I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!
All the Best!
Mark
A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
Thinking of Selling? Best Mortgage Rates Current Home Prices Search MLS Newsletter
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987
( BUS 905-828-3434
2 FAX 905-828-2829 ÈCELL 416-520-1577
› E-MAIL : mailto:mark@mississauga4sale.com?subject=Mississauga
Website : Mississauga4Sale.com
Rental Market Conditions Soften
The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) rental market experienced softer conditions in 2009. The average vacancy rate for purpose-built rental apartments rose by a full per centage point this year to 3.1 per cent. Several demand and supply factors contributed to the higher vacancy rate, including a rebound in homeownership demand, youth job losses, moderate immigration, more purpose-built rental apartments and a greater number of condominium apartment completions.
Demand Factors
Ownership Demand Rises
A rise in homeownership demand this year has reduced demand for rental accommodations. After starting off the year slow, sales levels in the GTA rebounded quickly over the spring and summer. Sales in both the existing and new home markets will surpass 2008 levels. For the most part, the past decade has shown us a positive relationship between homeownership demand and rental vacancies – when sales go up, vacancies rise as well.
A major reason for the shift towards owning this year is due to improved affordability conditions. Thanks to very low borrowing costs, the average monthly mortgage payment for a home in the GTA is down compared to 2007 and 2008. This has reduced the fi nancial commitment for households to move from renting to owning this year, prompting more renters to make their fi rst home purchase.
Information gathered from CMHC’s Renovation and Home Purchase Survey confi rms that a greater number of fi rst-time buyers are entering into homeownership as a result of the improved affordability conditions. First time buyers represent 57 per cent of intending purchasers this year versus a 33 per cent share that bought in 2008.
Younger Workers Lose Jobs Employment losses this year have mostly affected younger workers.
Since the average age of a fi rst-time buyer in Toronto is approximately 35, rental demand is largely driven by the under 35 workforce. Census data indicates that a quarter of younger workers in Toronto are employed in the manufacturing and retail trade sectors. The manufacturing sector has shed nearly 75,000 jobs this year while employment within the retail trade sector has been trending down for some time.
I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!
All the Best!
Mark
A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
Thinking of Selling? Best Mortgage Rates Current Home Prices Search MLS Newsletter
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987
( BUS 905-828-3434
2 FAX 905-828-2829 ÈCELL 416-520-1577
› E-MAIL : mailto:mark@mississauga4sale.com?subject=Mississauga
Website : Mississauga4Sale.com
Highlights
The average apartment vacancy rate in the GTA increased to 3.1 per cent in 2009.The average fixed sample rent for a two-bedroom apartment rose by 2.1 per cent.
Renter demand moderated due to improved homeownership affordability and a soft youth labour market.
The vacancy rate will edge up to 3.3 per cent next year as improvements in renter demand will be outweighed by a rise in rental supply.I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!
All the Best!
Mark
A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
Thinking of Selling? Best Mortgage Rates Current Home Prices Search MLS Newsletter
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987
( BUS 905-828-3434
2 FAX 905-828-2829 ÈCELL 416-520-1577
› E-MAIL : mailto:mark@mississauga4sale.com?subject=Mississauga
Website : Mississauga4Sale.com
Ontario — Looking forward to sunnier days
The upside of having been knocked down by a very tough recession is that things can only get better! On that score, Ontario’s economy can indeed look forward to 2010 after the annus horribilis it has endured in 2009.
Growth is expected to make a return to the province with the help of recovering U.S. demand and still highly simulative fiscal and monetary policy in 2010. Yet, the pace of recovery is most likely to be restrained, at least in the early going, given
the amount of restructuring that will continue to take place, especially in the hard-hit manufacturing sector. Overall employment gains are also likely to be on the moderate side as firms will want to use their current workforce more fully before expanding payrolls. Real GDP and employment in the province are forecast to grow by 2.4% and 1.1% in 2010, respectively, which would be slightly below the national average. In the case of employment, the expected gains would not make up
for the substantial losses (245,000) during the recession until sometime in 2011.
There is evidence that Ontario’s economy has already begun to turn the corner.
After a near-death experience during the first half of 2009, the all-important automotive sector has sprung back to life since summer – thanks in part to the U.S. “cash for clunkers” program that temporarily propped up car sales south of the border.
Although still facing many obstacles, this sector is expected to continue to heal in the year ahead. The housing sector has shown signs of vigour for the past several months, most clearly in the resale market – where activity is back in record territory – but also to a lesser degree in home building.
Driven by some improvement in motor vehicle sales, retail sales have trended higher since about spring after plunging late in 2008. The earlier deterioration in the labour market appears to have stabilized, with the jobless rate no longer surging and even easing a little since mid-summer (although remaining historically high).
Finally, a significant boost to non-residential construction is being felt with public infrastructure spending kicking into high gear. This spending is expected to reach its cruising speed in 2010.
The price for fiscal stimulus, however, is the return of government deficits. In Ontario’s case, the deficit for the 2009-10 fiscal year is now pegged at $24.7 billion, an all-time record for the province. With shortfalls in the following two years also revised higher to $21 billion and $19 billion, respectively, the task of balancing the provincial books within the next five to six years will be challenging and will require some element of fiscal restraint once the economy is back on track.
Partly offsetting any negative impact in the medium-term will be the benefits of implementing the Harmonized Sales Tax (HST) on July 1, 2010.
Although the HST will result in certain currently exempt products and services being taxed, moving to a value-added tax structure will make the tax system more economically efficient and will improve the competitiveness of Ontario businesses by lowering the cost of doing business in the province.
I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!
All the Best!
Mark
A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
Thinking of Selling? Best Mortgage Rates Current Home Prices Search MLS Newsletter
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987
( BUS 905-828-3434
2 FAX 905-828-2829 ÈCELL 416-520-1577
› E-MAIL : mailto:mark@mississauga4sale.com?subject=Mississauga
Website : Mississauga4Sale.com
Amid one of the worst recessions since the Great Depression, the one safe harbour proved to be housing. Not stocks. Not bonds. Real estate.
Why? The answer is really quite simple. Canadians believe in real estate.
Housing has proven itself a resilient and tangible investment that provides both a hedge against inflation and long-term appreciation. Buyers demonstrated their commitment en masse in 2009-taking advantage of rock-bottom interest rates and greater affordability levels-to drive housing sales and/or average prices to new heights. This year's real estate performance has been nothing short of remarkable.
The surge in sales has allowed residential real estate markets to play a key role in leading Canada out of the downturn. It is estimated that a total of $46,400 in ancillary spending are generated by the average housing transaction in Canada. With 465,000 resale homes expected to change hands by year-end 2009, that represents a $21.5 billion boost to the economy-not to mention the countless jobs and tax revenue housing supports. Going forward, the real estate sector is expected to have an even greater impact.
I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!
All the Best!
Mark
A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
Thinking of Selling? Best Mortgage Rates Current Home Prices Search MLS Newsletter
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987
( BUS 905-828-3434
2 FAX 905-828-2829 ÈCELL 416-520-1577
› E-MAIL : mailto:mark@mississauga4sale.com?subject=Mississauga
Website : Mississauga4Sale.com
U.S. Economy Turns the Corner
The U.S. economy grew at a 2.8% annualized pace in the third quarter, marking the first increase in real GDP after a year of quarterly declines.
Some of the increase was directly attributable to the government’s Car Allowance Rebate System (also known as the cash for clunkers program), which bolstered spending on autos in the quarter.
The strong pace of auto purchases will likely not be sustained in upcoming quarters; however, retail activity continued to firm up in October and November, suggesting that consumers have come out of hiding.
I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!
All the Best!
Mark
A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
Thinking of Selling? Best Mortgage Rates Current Home Prices Search MLS Newsletter
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987
( BUS 905-828-3434
2 FAX 905-828-2829 ÈCELL 416-520-1577
› E-MAIL : mailto:mark@mississauga4sale.com?subject=Mississauga
Website : Mississauga4Sale.com
Recovery — The New R-Word
I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!
All the Best!
Mark
A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
Thinking of Selling? Best Mortgage Rates Current Home Prices Search MLS Newsletter
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987
( BUS 905-828-3434
2 FAX 905-828-2829 ÈCELL 416-520-1577
› E-MAIL : mailto:mark@mississauga4sale.com?subject=Mississauga
Website : Mississauga4Sale.com
I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!
All the Best!
Mark
A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
Thinking of Selling? Best Mortgage Rates Current Home Prices Search MLS Newsletter
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987
( BUS 905-828-3434
2 FAX 905-828-2829 ÈCELL 416-520-1577
› E-MAIL : mailto:mark@mississauga4sale.com?subject=Mississauga
Website : Mississauga4Sale.com
I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!
All the Best!
Mark
A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
Thinking of Selling? Best Mortgage Rates Current Home Prices Search MLS Newsletter
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987
( BUS 905-828-3434
2 FAX 905-828-2829 ÈCELL 416-520-1577
› E-MAIL : mailto:mark@mississauga4sale.com?subject=Mississauga
Website : Mississauga4Sale.com
I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!
All the Best!
Mark
A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
Thinking of Selling? Best Mortgage Rates Current Home Prices Search MLS Newsletter
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987
( BUS 905-828-3434
2 FAX 905-828-2829 ÈCELL 416-520-1577
› E-MAIL : mailto:mark@mississauga4sale.com?subject=Mississauga
Website : Mississauga4Sale.com
I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!
All the Best!
Mark
A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
Thinking of Selling? Best Mortgage Rates Current Home Prices Search MLS Newsletter
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987
( BUS 905-828-3434
2 FAX 905-828-2829 ÈCELL 416-520-1577
› E-MAIL : mark@mississauga4sale.com
Website : Mississauga4Sale.com