Wednesday, December 29, 2010
TREB Affordability Indicator Share of Average Household Income Used for Mortgage Principal and Interest, Property Taxes and Utilities on the Avg
This chart plots the share of average household income that goes toward mortgage principal and interest, property taxes and utilities for the average priced home in the GTA subject to the following assumptions:
1.Average annual or year-to-date home price as reported by TREB
2.20 per cent down payment
3.Average 5-year fixed mortgage rate (Statistics Canada); 25-year amortization
4.Average property tax rate reported by/estimated from the Statistics Canada Survey of Household Spending
5.Average utilities cost reported by/estimated from the Statistics Canada Survey of Household Spending and components of the Consumer Price Index
6.Average household income reported by the Census of Canada. Years in between Censuses estimated using interpolation (years upto2005) or annual growth in average weekly earnings reported by Statistics Canada in the LabourForce Survey (2006 onward).
Toronto Real Estate Board Data and Calculation; Statistics CanadaTREB
For more information please contact A. Mark ArgentinoA. Mark Argentino, Broker, P.Eng.,Specializing in Residential & Investment Real EstateRE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc., Brokerage2691 Credit Valley Road, Suite 101, Mississauga, Ontario L5M 7A1BUS. 905-828-3434FAX. 905-828-2829E-MAIL: mark@mississauga4sale.comWebsite: Mississauga4Sale.com
Tuesday, December 28, 2010
TREB MLS® Sales-to-New Listings Ratio Compared to Average Annual Per Cent Change in Home Price Sales
This chart plots the monthly sales-to-new listings ratio (blue line) with year-over-year average annual per cent price change (brown line). When the sales-to-new listings ratio moves higher, average annual per cent change in home prices generally trends higher. When the sales-to-new listings ratio moves lower, average annual per cent change in home prices generally trends lower.
For more information please contact A. Mark ArgentinoA. Mark Argentino, Broker, P.Eng.,Specializing in Residential & Investment Real EstateRE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc., Brokerage2691 Credit Valley Road, Suite 101, Mississauga, Ontario L5M 7A1BUS. 905-828-3434FAX. 905-828-2829E-MAIL: mark@mississauga4sale.comWebsite: Mississauga4Sale.com
Monday, December 27, 2010
TREB MLS® Average Price Monthly Time Series with Trend Line Actual
This chart plots monthly MLS® average price since January 1995. The blue line shows the actual average price. The brown line is the trend computed using a 12-month moving average, which exhibits no seasonal variations or other irregular fluctuations. A substantial change in actual average price must occur to change the direction of the trend.
For more information please contact A. Mark ArgentinoA. Mark Argentino, Broker, P.Eng.,Specializing in Residential & Investment Real EstateRE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc., Brokerage2691 Credit Valley Road, Suite 101, Mississauga, Ontario L5M 7A1BUS. 905-828-3434FAX. 905-828-2829E-MAIL: mark@mississauga4sale.comWebsite: Mississauga4Sale.com
Saturday, December 25, 2010
Merry Christmas!
Mark
For more information please contact A. Mark ArgentinoA. Mark Argentino, Broker, P.Eng.,Specializing in Residential & Investment Real EstateRE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc., Brokerage2691 Credit Valley Road, Suite 101, Mississauga, Ontario L5M 7A1BUS. 905-828-3434FAX. 905-828-2829E-MAIL: mark@mississauga4sale.comWebsite: Mississauga4Sale.com
Thursday, December 23, 2010
TREB MLS® New Listings Monthly Time Series with Trend Line Actual
This chart plots monthly MLS® new listings since January 1995. The blue line shows actual new listings. The brown line is the trend computed using a 12-month moving average, which exhibits no seasonal variations or other irregular fluctuations. A substantial change in actual new listings must occur to change the direction of the trend.
For more information please contact A. Mark ArgentinoA. Mark Argentino, Broker, P.Eng.,Specializing in Residential & Investment Real EstateRE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc., Brokerage2691 Credit Valley Road, Suite 101, Mississauga, Ontario L5M 7A1BUS. 905-828-3434FAX. 905-828-2829E-MAIL: mark@mississauga4sale.comWebsite: Mississauga4Sale.com
Tuesday, December 21, 2010
TREB MLS® New Listings Monthly Time Series with Trend Line Actual
This chart plots monthly MLS® new listings since January 1995. The blue line shows actual new listings. The brown line is the trend computed using a 12-month moving average, which exhibits no seasonal variations or other irregular fluctuations. A substantial change in actual new listings must occur to change the direction of the trend.
For more information please contact A. Mark ArgentinoA. Mark Argentino, Broker, P.Eng.,Specializing in Residential & Investment Real EstateRE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc., Brokerage2691 Credit Valley Road, Suite 101, Mississauga, Ontario L5M 7A1BUS. 905-828-3434FAX. 905-828-2829E-MAIL: mark@mississauga4sale.comWebsite: Mississauga4Sale.com
Monday, December 20, 2010
TREB MLS® Sales Monthly Time Series with Trend Line Actual
This chart plots monthly MLS® sales since January 1995. The blue line shows actual sales. The brown line is the trend computed using a 12-month moving average, which exhibits no seasonal variations or other irregular fluctuations. A substantial change in actual sales must occur to change the direction of the trend.
For more information please contact A. Mark ArgentinoA. Mark Argentino, Broker, P.Eng.,Specializing in Residential & Investment Real EstateRE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc., Brokerage2691 Credit Valley Road, Suite 101, Mississauga, Ontario L5M 7A1BUS. 905-828-3434FAX. 905-828-2829E-MAIL: mark@mississauga4sale.comWebsite: Mississauga4Sale.com
Friday, December 17, 2010
MLS® Average Resale Home Price
This chart plots the monthly MLS® average home price for the current year and the previous three years. The recurring seasonal trend can be examined along with comparisons to previous years for each month.
For more information please contact A. Mark ArgentinoA. Mark Argentino, Broker, P.Eng.,Specializing in Residential & Investment Real EstateRE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc., Brokerage2691 Credit Valley Road, Suite 101, Mississauga, Ontario L5M 7A1BUS. 905-828-3434FAX. 905-828-2829E-MAIL: mark@mississauga4sale.comWebsite: Mississauga4Sale.com
Wednesday, December 15, 2010
GTA real estate TREB MLS® Sales-to-New Listings RatioMonthly
This chart plots the monthly MLS® sales-to-new listings ratio (SNLR) for the current year and the previous three years. The recurring seasonal trend can be examined along with comparisons to previous years for each month. When the SNLR moves higher, annual average price growth generally increases –often at a rate well above inflation. When the SNLR moves lower, annual average price growth generally declines and can become negative.
For more information please contact A. Mark ArgentinoA. Mark Argentino, Broker, P.Eng.,Specializing in Residential & Investment Real EstateRE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc., Brokerage2691 Credit Valley Road, Suite 101, Mississauga, Ontario L5M 7A1BUS. 905-828-3434FAX. 905-828-2829E-MAIL: mark@mississauga4sale.comWebsite: Mississauga4Sale.com
Tuesday, December 14, 2010
Please watch this Drunk Driving video ad, and pass it on
I sent this video to my two teenage boys who are both driving, but I think that you can view it and send it to anyone who drives a vehicle.
If you can help stop one person from dying from drinking and driving, then we all succeed.
All the best,
Mark
_____
From: A. Mark Argentino, P.Eng., Broker [mailto:mark@mississauga4sale.com]
Sent: Friday, December 10, 2010 10:15 AM
Subject: Please watch this video ad, and pass it on
Lucas and Evan,
This is for the two people in life that mean the most to me and mean the most to your mother.
This is an incredible video. Please read what I say below and watch the video.
Your mother and I are always very concerned about both of you when you are out on the road, whether you are driving or a passenger with your friends.
When we say 'slow slow' we mean it. Your life could be taken away in an instant and we would never be the same family for the remainder of our lives. Please don't ever drink and drive and please don't ever smoke dope and drive.
ALWAYS call us no matter what the time of day or night or no matter where you are if you need a ride, we will always come and pick you up, we don't care where you are or who you are with or what the circumstances are. We don't care about being inconvenienced in the middle of the night. We care about you staying alive, nothing is more important than that.
We don't want to get a call from the police that either of you are DEAD because of a car accident, ever. So please, don't drink and drive, don't go into a car where your friend was drinking and driving, never.
Lucas, Please watch this video and show it to Kate and pass along to your friends.
Evan, I want you to watch both of these video's and show to Naomi and pass along to your friends
Please click on DUI-
http://www.youtube.com/watch_popup?v=Z2mf8DtWWd8 DUI must watch video
Love Dad
Canada RESALE HOUSING OUTLOOK according to TD Canada Trust
Enjoy,
Mark
RESALE HOUSING OUTLOOK:
CANADIAN HOUSING LANDING SAFELY
While much more stable than its U.S. counterpart, the Canadian existing home
market has nonetheless gone through a wild ride over the last three years.
Sidestep-ping both worst-case scenarios of a bubble and crash, the resale market
appears to have landed safely, and somewhat earlier than we anticipated three
months ago. This begs the question of where the market is headed from here.
Looking out over the next two years, this piece updates our housing market
forecast from the one last published in our September Quarterly Economic Forecast.
The current year appears likely to turn in a performance near what we predicted in September, with annual national sales down slightly from last year. Meanwhile, with listings having seen less upside than anticipated, the annual average home price is set to gain around 7% in 2010.
The most important development since our September forecast is that in-creases in borrowing rates foreseen three months ago by TD Economics and most forecasters have been delayed, as uncertainty lingers and the U.S. Federal Reserve is engaging in a second round of quantitative easing. This translates into an improved home sales and average price forecast for next year. We have upgraded our national home sales forecast for 2011, though annual sales should still end up lower than in 2010. On the price front, in line with higher sales and a consequent but more modest uptick in listings, things look markedly better. We now forecast the annual average price for 2011 to remain essentially unchanged, slipping by less than 1%.
On the flipside, however, higher borrowing rates remain on the horizon, with the consequence that 2012 sales now look weaker than they did in September. In essence, with limited pent-up demand, higher sales activity in the near-term will likely rob from sales thereafter. In this context, the annual average price is likely to drop a bit further, by 1-2%. Rising interest rates will be the main headwind, but will occur against the backdrop of an improving economy. Along with contained increases in supply, continued but modest gains in income and employment should limit the extent to which homes depreciate.
Extreme fears miss the mark
In the midst of the global financial crisis which hit its apex in the fall of 2008, some worried that Canada might be in store for a U.S.-style housing crash. As we argued, that fear proved to be unfounded. The market experienced a severe downturn in 2008 during which time the average resale price dropped by 13% (peak-to-trough), but it rebounded in quick fashion. In July 2009, only six months after hitting bottom, the average price was already back to its pre-recession peak. Mortgage rates at record lows and lower prices set the stage for that unprecedented turnaround. By the end of 2009, the average price had climbed another 6%. As a result, concerns did a complete U-turn, shifting towards the risk that a hous-ing bubble was brewing.
Had the 2009 rebound been sustained for longer, we may well have agreed. But, as expected, it did not last. Sales peaked at year-end 2009, and the average price followed in April 2010. During the first half of this year, sales gave back most of their gains. This was consistent with our view that the 2009 rebound front-loaded activity and borrowed from future demand. Meanwhile, listings retreated and kept the market balance in check, preventing a steep price drop. As of the second half of this year, the market was already experiencing a nascent rebound.
Better rates, better sales - for now
As of October 2010, sales were up a cumulative 13% from July and the average price was on a modest uptrend. With mortgage rates dropping lower than initially expected, sales found their footing ahead of our September forecast - which had predicted a trough in the second quarter of 2011. The surprising decline in mortgage rates were the result of lower Government of Canada (GoC) bond yields, which anchor financial institutions' funding costs. For instance, the benchmark 5-year GoC bond yield was near 2% in late October, which translated into an average posted 5-year fixed mortgage rate near 5% - with effective (i.e. negotiated) rates closer to a historical low 3.5%.
As a result, home affordability in Q3 saw its first im-provement since early 2010. In turn, demand improved. The recent uptick in sales does not appear to be a blip, par-ticularly in light of its regional breadth. There appears to be more at play, for instance, than volatility related to sales tax harmonization in B.C. and Ontario.
Rates in the driver's seat
If anything, the housing market's gyrations over the last three years confirm the great sensitivity of demand to mortgage rates. While other drivers such as income and em-ployment obviously matter, crunching the numbers reveals that they do not weigh in nearly as much as lending rates do. As such, great attention should be paid to where interest rates are headed. What's more, our forecast for income and employment over the next two years is of the uneventful variety - one of continued but modest growth. In essence, income and employment should grow sufficiently to put a floor under demand, but not so strongly as to sharply tilt the market balance in favour of sellers.
Higher rates still on the horizon
Looking ahead, we would caution that the main driver behind our September view that home sales would continue to head lower has not been eliminated, but simply postponed - higher interest rates remain on the horizon. By the same token, the magnitude of increases is expected to be limited. The Bank of Canada's overnight rate is expected to be on hold at 1% until the second half of next year before reaching 2% by year-end 2011, and 3% by year-end 2012.
The overnight rate anchors bank's prime lending rate and variable rate mortgages. Longer-term rates such as a typical 5-year fixed rate mortgage are anchored around 5-year Go Cbond yields. On that front, we forecast a rise of about one percentage point between year-end 2010 and year-end 2011, and a further half percentage point by year-end 2012. Hence, beyond the first half of 2011, we expect both short-term and longer-term interest rates to rise modestly in tandem. <p>Thus, interest rates will tend to erode
home affordability over the next two years - although other factors, such as continued income growth, will soften the blow. Moreover, home affordability starts in a good position, with the typi-cal mortgage consuming 28.5% of the average household income as of Q3/2010. This provides continued near-term support for sales, but only up to the point where rising inter-est rates and sticky prices begin to impair the affordability picture. Over the next two years, our home affordability measure is expected to range between 30% and 32%. In historical terms, this is a manageable erosion in affordability compared to 40% and higher observed in the late 1980s.
Stability is the word
The net result is that home sales can stay elevated for another couple of quarters, but should begin to moderate thereafter. Part of what lies behind the retracement in home sales has been the outsized contribution of first-time homebuyers during the market rebound.
Having no built-up equity or capital gains to fall back on, these buyers are more sensitive to changes in affordability - monthly mortgage payments as percentage of income - stemming from inter-est rate changes than existing homeowners. For potential future first-timers, a slight change in borrowing rates can mean the crucial difference between an entry-level purchase and being priced out altogether. They led the resurgence in sales and prices in 2009, but look set for a role reversal as interest rates eventually begin their inevitable trek upwards.
As sales flatten out and start to slow over the course of 2011, and with listings expected to stay contained, we expect prices to find a near-term ceiling over the next few quarters. Subsequently, a softer market balance will likely result in a modest price drop of 3-5% (peak-to-trough) in late 2011 and early 2012 before prices stabilize later in the year. All said, the higher interest rate trend fortunately starts as the Canadian housing market is well balanced between listings and sales. This balance does not support suggestions that prices should either surge or suffer a steep correction. This is likely to be a modest market adjustment driven by higher borrowing rates, but cushioned by an improving economy. 2010 was not what bubbles are made of. Similarly, under our forecast interest rate profile, the next two years will not be what crashes are made of.
I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!
All the Best!
Mark
A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987
BUS 905-828-3434
FAX 905-828-2829 CELL 416-520-1577
mark@mississauga4sale.com
Mississauga4Sale.com
* Thinking of selling your home in the next 3 to 6 months? Would you
like a Complimentary & Quick Over-The-Net Home Evaluation ?
www.mississauga4sale.com/internet-evaluation.htm
* Power of Sales and Foreclosures
www.mississauga4sale.com/Power-Sales-Bank-Sales-Alert-Request.htm
* If you have not already signed up to receive my monthly real estate
newsletter, you may do so here: On-Line Real Estate Newsletter sign up
www.mississauga4sale.com/popupquestion.htm
* See seasonal housing patterns
www.mississauga4sale.com/TREBprice.htm
* Would you like me to send you a desk or wall Calendar?
www.mississauga4sale.com/Calendar-Order-Form.htm
Monday, December 13, 2010
GTA TREB MLS® New Listings
This chart plots monthly MLS® new listings for the current year and the previous three years. The recurring seasonal trend can be examined along with comparisons to previous years for each month.
For more information please contact A. Mark ArgentinoA. Mark Argentino, Broker, P.Eng.,Specializing in Residential & Investment Real EstateRE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc., Brokerage2691 Credit Valley Road, Suite 101, Mississauga, Ontario L5M 7A1BUS. 905-828-3434FAX. 905-828-2829E-MAIL: mark@mississauga4sale.comWebsite: Mississauga4Sale.com
Friday, December 10, 2010
GTA monthly MLS® sales for the current year and the previous three years.
This chart plots monthly MLS® sales for the current year and the previous three years. The recurring seasonal trend can be examined along with comparisons to previous years for each month.
For more information please contact A. Mark ArgentinoA. Mark Argentino, Broker, P.Eng.,Specializing in Residential & Investment Real EstateRE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc., Brokerage2691 Credit Valley Road, Suite 101, Mississauga, Ontario L5M 7A1BUS. 905-828-3434FAX. 905-828-2829E-MAIL: mark@mississauga4sale.comWebsite: Mississauga4Sale.com
Wednesday, December 08, 2010
Gap between 1 year and 5 year mortgage interest rate widens!
Prices up sales down for November 2010 GTA Resale Housing Market
The December real estate report for November was just released. Comparing November 2010 to November 2009 homes sales were down about 13% and the average price is up 5% for the same period.
We expect that the next month or so will see a 'typical' market, which is slower than most other months of the year.
See the report below.
I hope this finds you healthy and happy,
Mark
GTA REALTORS(r) Report Monthly Resale Housing Market Figures
TORONTO, December 3, 2010 -- Greater Toronto REALTORS reported 6,510 existing home sales in November - down 13 per cent from 7,446 sales in November 2009. New listings were also down 13 per cent annually to 8,642.
On a month-over-month basis, the seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales increased for the fourth straight month to 88,100. This rate was substantially higher than the July low of 67,900.
"The GTA resale market has tightened since the summer. Healthy market conditions continued to support growth in the average selling price," said Toronto Real Estate Board President Bill Johnston.
"Sales through the first 11 months of the year were down only marginally compared to the same period in 2009. We remain on track for one of the best years on record under the current TREB market area," continued Johnston.
The average selling price for November transactions was $438,030 - up five per cent compared to November 2009.
"The average selling price in the GTA is affordable. A household earning the average income can comfortably cover the mortgage payments on an average priced home. Expect the average selling price to grow at a moderate pace in the next while.
Tuesday, December 07, 2010
Bank of Canada keeps prime at 1%
The Bank of Canada feels that the rate will remain unchanged at least until the middle of next year.
Some feel that the bank raised the prime too fast and too high in the middle and end of 2010 and this has kept our economy from growing as fast as it could.
It will be interesting to see how mortgage interest rates react to this recent announcement, stay tuned!
Mark
Thursday, December 02, 2010
Current mortgage interest rates posted and attainable
GTA
Have a wonderful day!
Term Attainable Rate Bank Rate
3 Yr Fixed 2.99% 4.45%
5 Yr Fixed 3.49% 5.24%
Variable 2.10% 3.00%
Updated : December 1, 2010
I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!
All the Best!
Mark
A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987
BUS 905-828-3434
FAX 905-828-2829 CELL 416-520-1577
mark@mississauga4sale.com
Mississauga4Sale.com
* Thinking of selling your home in the next 3 to 6 months? Would you
like a Complimentary & Quick Over-The-Net Home Evaluation ?
www.mississauga4sale.com/internet-evaluation.htm
* Power of Sales and Foreclosures
www.mississauga4sale.com/Power-Sales-Bank-Sales-Alert-Request.htm
* If you have not already signed up to receive my monthly real estate
newsletter, you may do so here: On-Line Real Estate Newsletter sign up
www.mississauga4sale.com/popupquestion.htm
* See seasonal housing patterns
www.mississauga4sale.com/TREBprice.htm
* Would you like me to send you a desk or wall Calendar?
www.mississauga4sale.com/Calendar-Order-Form.htm