Question about GTA market following the drop in Vancouver's real estate marketplace

I had a couple of questions from a reader.

She asked:

Thanks Mark for the statistics. My concern is although the price rise, sales volume drop by 21%. Does this signal that indicate GTA follow Vancouver style?




Media guys says Vancouver also showed high price increase st year with significant drop in sales volume and eventually ended up in falling prices.

and I responded:   Yes, I understand your concern. Many feel that this may spill over to the GTA marketplace. Nobody can predict the future. Our GTA marketplace has slowed slightly over the past few months but it's too early to tell if this is a seasonal slowdown or the beginning of an overall slowdown.   Our prices have not skyrocketed at the same pace as Vancouver over the past 5 or 10 years, so personally, I don't think our market will drop as it has in Vancouver.

and she responded:

Thanks Mark for the clarification. I agree no one can predict the future with 100% certainty.
I too believe sales drop may be seasonal based on the sales trends
2010 -1st half sales were up but 2nd half sales were down.
2011 1st 4 month sales were down but 2nd half was up
2012 First half sales were up but the 2nd half were slow.


and I responded:

  Yes, your analysis and observations are correct, but, as the Royal Bank always tells me when I read about their mutual funds performance, they say, "past results are no indication of future performance" so we must always exercise caution.....   and this is the unsolicited advice I offer you today, 'exercise caution" in our real estate market over the next few months......   All the best!   Mark