Showing posts with label TREB-average-prices-toronto-2009. Show all posts
Showing posts with label TREB-average-prices-toronto-2009. Show all posts

Wednesday, December 09, 2009

Single family residential home prices GTA Toronto Real Estate Board past 10 years

This graph shows the average and median annual single family residential home prices in the GTA Toronto Real Estate Board

A clear trend over the past 10 years is seen.

Real estate is a wise long term investment


Enjoy,

Mark






I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!


All the Best!


Mark


A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate


Thinking of Selling? Best Mortgage Rates Current Home Prices Search MLS Newsletter
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987

(
BUS 905-828-3434
2
FAX 905-828-2829 ÈCELL 416-520-1577
E-MAIL : mailto:mark@mississauga4sale.com?subject=Mississauga
Website : Mississauga4Sale.com



Tuesday, December 08, 2009

Last 2 years sales prices and volumes in Toronto Real Estate marketplace

This graph shows the average single family residential sales prices and volumes in Toronto Real Estate marketplace for the past 2 years

Enjoy!

Mark



I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!


All the Best!


Mark


A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate


Thinking of Selling? Best Mortgage Rates Current Home Prices Search MLS Newsletter
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987

(
BUS 905-828-3434
2
FAX 905-828-2829 ÈCELL 416-520-1577
E-MAIL : mailto:mark@mississauga4sale.com?subject=Mississauga
Website : Mississauga4Sale.com



Monday, December 07, 2009

November 2009 Sales volumes in GTA up compared to last year


Sales of single family homes in the GTA are about double what they were back in November of 2008, a refreshing feeling for anyone selling this fall.

Enjoy!

Mark








I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!


All the Best!


Mark


A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate


Thinking of Selling? Best Mortgage Rates Current Home Prices Search MLS Newsletter
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987

(
BUS 905-828-3434
2
FAX 905-828-2829 ÈCELL 416-520-1577
E-MAIL : mailto:mark@mississauga4sale.com?subject=Mississauga
Website : Mississauga4Sale.com



Sunday, December 06, 2009

Active listings on TREB down from previous months


Note how much the active listings are down, this is why the market is fast in the GTA and Mississauga



I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!


All the Best!


Mark


A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate


Thinking of Selling? Best Mortgage Rates Current Home Prices Search MLS Newsletter
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987

(
BUS 905-828-3434
2
FAX 905-828-2829 ÈCELL 416-520-1577
E-MAIL : mailto:mark@mississauga4sale.com?subject=Mississauga
Website : Mississauga4Sale.com



Thursday, December 03, 2009

Current Housing Market Indicators for the GTA real estate market

This chart is a nice summary of the current housing market indicators and shows that our market is more than double the sales volume compared to a year ago.


As well, the number of new listings coming on the market is about the same, but the total amount of listings is down about 50%, a huge drop.


The days on the market is also down about 37% indicating we are in a much faster market compared to November of 2008


Enjoy

Mark








I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!


All the Best!


Mark


A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate


Thinking of Selling? Best Mortgage Rates Current Home Prices Search MLS Newsletter
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987

(
BUS 905-828-3434
2
FAX 905-828-2829 ÈCELL 416-520-1577
E-MAIL : mailto:mark@mississauga4sale.com?subject=Mississauga
Website : Mississauga4Sale.com



TREB Report November Resale Residential Homes Sales Market Figures

this is the latest report from the Toronto Real Estate Board and it indicates that the market is doing very well compared to the same time last year. If you recall, our market was slumping in the last 3 months of 2008, certainly a huge change this year.


All the best!

Mark





GTA REALTORS® Report November Resale Housing Market Figures


TORONTO, December 3, 2009 - Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 7,446 sales in November


– slightly more than double the November 2008 result when GTA home sales had dipped markedly due to the economic downturn. Year-to-date sales were up 14 per cent compared to the first 11 months of 2008.


“This year in the GTA home sales will be in line with the healthy levels experienced between 2004 and 2006,” said Toronto Real Estate Board President Tom Lebour.


“Increased resale home transactions in the Toronto area and country-wide played a key role in pushing the Canadian economy out of recession in the third quarter.”


The average price for November transactions was up 14 per cent year-over-year to $418,460.


The average price year-to-date was up four per cent to $394,464.


“Very strong annual growth rates for sales and average price should be expected through the first quarter of 2010, because we will be comparing the current recovery to the housing market decline experienced last winter," according to Jason Mercer, TREB's Senior Manager of Market Analysis. “As we move into the spring, growth rates will move to more sustainable levels.”


Summary Of November Sales And Average Price


November


2009 2008


Sales Average Price Sales Average Price


City of Toronto ("416") 3,212 $450,079 1,523 $390,225


Rest of GTA ("905") 4,234 $394,474 2,117 $353,012


GTA 7,446 $418,460 3,640 $368,582


Source: Toronto Real Estate Board


I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!


All the Best!


Mark


A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate


Thinking of Selling? Best Mortgage Rates Current Home Prices Search MLS Newsletter
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987

(
BUS 905-828-3434
2
FAX 905-828-2829 ÈCELL 416-520-1577
E-MAIL : mailto:mark@mississauga4sale.com?subject=Mississauga
Website : Mississauga4Sale.com




Saturday, November 14, 2009

Breakdown of residential sales in the GTA as provided by the Toronto Real Estate Board

The graph below shows the breakdown of residential sales in the GTA as
provided by the Toronto Real Estate Board

You can see that the majority of sales are detached homes, followed by Semi
Detached homes and then Condominium high-rise apartments

This is for the entire GTA
Enjoy!
I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!

All the Best!

Mark

A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate

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Friday, November 13, 2009

Housing market indicators in the Toronto and GTA marketplace

The chart below shows you how the housing market is progressing compared to
the same month last year.

You can see that real estate sales are up about 64%, the number of active
listings is down significantly by about 46% and this is part of the reason
why our market is so 'hot' and prices are rising.

All of the above results in the days on the market decreasing by about 30%
from the same month last year, this is why we say the market is so 'fast'
right now.

All the best!
Mark

Thursday, November 12, 2009

Graph showing ratio of sales to active listings in West GTA

Notice that the ratio of sales to active listings was very low in the fall of 2008 and began to rise in about March April of 2009 and this is clearly seen in our marketplace. Back in the fall of 2008 only about 15 to 20% of active listings were selling, now it's up to about 55% and this is a very high number when compared from historic standards. The sales to listing ratio is typically about 40 to 45% which means that our market is very hot right now, which it is and also still means that about 40% or so of homes are still not selling.


Enjoy,


Mark















I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!


All the Best!


Mark


A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate


Thinking of Selling? Best Mortgage Rates Current Home Prices Search MLS Newsletter
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987

(
BUS 905-828-3434
2
FAX 905-828-2829 ÈCELL 416-520-1577
E-MAIL : mailto:mark@mississauga4sale.com?subject=Mississauga
Website : Mississauga4Sale.com



Tuesday, November 10, 2009

Number of Active listings is down

The fact that the Number of Active listings is down puts pressure on the market and prices strictly from a supply and demand point of view, less listings, more interest and prices go up. This is what we have experienced in the past few months. Notice the number of active listings was high from about October 2008 to March 2009 and we did experience a softening of prices during the same period.


Thanks!


Mark












I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!


All the Best!


Mark


A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate


Thinking of Selling? Best Mortgage Rates Current Home Prices Search MLS Newsletter
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987

(
BUS 905-828-3434
2
FAX 905-828-2829 ÈCELL 416-520-1577
E-MAIL : mailto:mark@mississauga4sale.com?subject=Mississauga
Website : Mississauga4Sale.com



Monday, November 09, 2009

Average single family residential home prices increase for past decade

This graph illustrates the average single family residential prices in the GTA over the past 10 years. There has been a clear trend for the past decade that prices have increased every year.
Enjoy
Mark













I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!


All the Best!


Mark


A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate


Thinking of Selling? Best Mortgage Rates Current Home Prices Search MLS Newsletter
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987

(
BUS 905-828-3434
2
FAX 905-828-2829 ÈCELL 416-520-1577
E-MAIL : mailto:mark@mississauga4sale.com?subject=Mississauga
Website : Mississauga4Sale.com



Thursday, November 05, 2009

October GTA Real Estate Reports Strong Growth in sales

This is the October report for TREB for the average prices and the number of sales, both were very strong last month.

TREB Reports Strong Growth in October MLS Transactions

TORONTO, November 4, 2009 - In October 2009, Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 8,476 sales, up 64 per cent from October 2008. The average price for October transactions was $423,559 – up by 20 per cent compared to the same month last year.

Year-to-date sales, at 74,721, were up nine per cent compared to the first ten months of 2008.

Average price, at $392,264 was up by almost three per cent. "After a short dip in the winter, the average home price in the GTA has rebounded because sales have been high relative to listings," according to Jason Mercer, TREB's Senior Manager of Market Analysis. "Watch for listings to rebound in 2010 as home owners react to the strong sales and price growth experienced in the latter half of this year."

"Strong sales growth has occurred across many property classes – from price ranges that would attract first-time buyers to luxury properties selling for over one million dollars," said TREB President Tom Lebour. "The highest rate of sales growth in October was experienced for properties selling for over $750,000. In contrast, luxury home sales declined at an above-average rate last year."

Read more: http://www.mississauga4sale.com/TREBprice.htm

I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!

All the Best!

Mark

A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate


Thinking of Selling? Best Mortgage Rates Current Home Prices Search MLS Newsletter
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987

(
BUS 905-828-3434
2 FAX 905-828-2829 ÈCELL 416-520-1577
E-MAIL
: mark@mississauga4sale.com
Website : Mississauga4Sale.com

Monday, October 05, 2009

TREB reports SEPTEMBER RESALE MARKET FIGURES

These are the figures from September 2009, prices and sales were both up compared to same month last year.

GTA REALTORS® REPORTING SEPTEMBER RESALE MARKET FIGURES TORONTO, October 5, 2009

-

In September 2009, Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 8,196 sales, up 28 per cent from September 2008. The average price for September transactions was $406,877 – up by 10 per cent compared to the same month last year.

"We have experienced an increasing rate of existing home price growth in the GTA as sales have continued to outpace 2008 results," said TREB President Tom Lebour. "Consumers have remained confident in ownership housing as a long-term investment."

Year-to-date sales, at 66,437 were up 4.5 per cent compared to the first nine months of 2008.

Average price, at $388,417 was up by almost 1.5 per cent.

"Existing home sales will finish strong this year, pushing through the 80,000 mark and moving in line with some of the best years on record under the current TREB market area," according to Jason Mercer, TREB's Senior Manager of Market Analysis.

I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!

All the Best!

Mark

A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate


Thinking of Selling? Best Mortgage Rates Current Home Prices Search MLS Newsletter
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987

(
BUS 905-828-3434
2
FAX 905-828-2829 ÈCELL 416-520-1577
E-MAIL : mailto:mark@mississauga4sale.com?subject=Mississauga
Website : Mississauga4Sale.com

Wednesday, September 09, 2009

20 Offers on a property in Mississauga - September Toronto and Mississauga Real Estate News

September News: Greetings from Fabulous Mississauga!

If there is any doubt whether real estate prices are rising, you don't have to look far to find evidence of this fact. Over the long weekend a semi detached property in Mississauga that was listed for $369,900 had 20 offers on it and it sold for $401,000! Sounds more like Toronto than Mississauga :-))

The statistics for last month are out and average GTA sale price and volumes are at or near all time highs, see this page for latest market stats and results from this record month

Mortgage interest rates have fallen slightly or have been stable over the past month or so, even though the bank rate has remained steady.

Any way you look at it, interest rates are at or near all time lows with bank prime at 2.25% , read more.

Our market continues to do very well, prices are up and so are sales volumes.

My observations for the Mississauga marketplace is that we continue to see that prices continue to be strong and rising in many areas. Moderately of course, but still, they are rising.

It will be interesting to see what the next quarter brings as the fall market is typically a strong period in our market.

You are reading the latest newsletter

September Report

September Resale Housing Results Brings More Positive News

GTA REALTORS® report high sales volumes last month

TORONTO, September 2, 2009 -

In August 2009, Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 8,035 sales, up 27% per cent from August 2008. The average price for August transactions was $387,921 – up by six per cent compared to the same month last year.

"The increase in demand for existing homes has been widespread across different housing types and price ranges," said TREB President Tom Lebour. "This suggests many categories of home buyers have chosen to make a long-term investment in housing, from first-time buyers to move-up buyers or buyers who are seeking a lifestyle change."

Year-to-date sales, at 58,421 were up two per cent compared to the first eight months of 2008.

Average price, at $385,978 was up by less than one-half of one per cent.

"We have heard more positive economic news lately. The improved housing market has played a key role,” explained Jason Mercer, TREB's Senior Manager of Market Analysis. "Home sales have helped other sectors of the economy through home buyers’ spending on things like financial and legal services, moving, renovations and home furnishings."

I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!

All the Best!

Mark

A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate


Thinking of Selling? Best Mortgage Rates Current Home Prices Search MLS Newsletter
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987

(
BUS 905-828-3434
2
FAX 905-828-2829 ÈCELL 416-520-1577
E-MAIL : mailto:mark@mississauga4sale.com?subject=Mississauga
Website : Mississauga4Sale.com

Friday, September 04, 2009

August Residential Real Estate Resale Market Figures show strength

The statistics are out for August and it was another very good month for real estate in the Toronto and GTA

GTA REALTORS® Report August Resale Market Figures

TORONTO, September 2, 2009

- In August 2009, Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 8,035 sales, up 27% per cent from August 2008. The average price for August transactions was $387,921 – up by six per cent compared to the same month last year.

"The increase in demand for existing homes has been widespread across different housing types and price ranges," said TREB President Tom Lebour. "This suggests many categories of home buyers have chosen to make a long-term investment in housing, from first-time buyers to move-up buyers or buyers who are seeking a lifestyle change."

Year-to-date sales, at 58,421 were up two per cent compared to the first eight months of 2008.

Average price, at $385,978 was up by less than one-half of one per cent.

"We have heard more positive economic news lately. The improved housing market has played a key role," explained Jason Mercer, TREB's Senior Manager of Market Analysis. "Home sales have helped other sectors of the economy through home buyers’ spending on things like financial and legal services, moving, renovations and home furnishings."

I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!

All the Best!

Mark

A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate


Thinking of Selling? Best Mortgage Rates Current Home Prices Search MLS Newsletter
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987

(
BUS 905-828-3434
2
FAX 905-828-2829 ÈCELL 416-520-1577
E-MAIL : mailto:mark@mississauga4sale.com?subject=Mississauga
Website : Mississauga4Sale.com

Thursday, August 20, 2009

3,393 sales reported to the Toronto Real Estate Board so far in the first 13 days of August.

We have a very strong number of 3,393 sales reported to the Toronto Real
Estate Board so far in the first 13 days of August.

WE can estimate we'll come in around 7,500 to 8,000 sales for this month
which easily beats last August (6,318) by about 22%. The best August on
record was 2007 with 8,059 so there's a small chance we'll beat that.

I'm confident the sales numbers would be much higher if there were a little
bit more inventory available. Currently we have only 16,400 homes for sale.
This is approx 3,000 or 14% fewer than that crazy August in 2007. Inventory
numbers are critically low.

As we all know the "real inventory" (fairly priced homes in a decent area in
decent condition) is turning over immediately with multiple offers. There
has been no summer lull this year. The fall is going to be very interesting!


Another interesting tidbit: We have 8,600 or 35% fewer homes for sale now
than 2008.

Moral of the story: Better get out there and buy a house!
All the best,
Mark

Tuesday, August 18, 2009

GTA REALTORS Sales and Sales volumes Report August Mid-Month Resale Market Figures

August is starting out with a surge, prices are up as are sales. Good indication of start of fall market.

GTA REALTORS® Report August Mid-Month Resale Market Figures

TORONTO, August 18, 2009 - In the first two weeks of August, Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 3,832 sales – up 27 per cent compared to the first two weeks of August 2008. The average price for these transactions was up three per cent year-over-year to $383,796.

"The results for the first half of August indicate that many households in the GTA remain confident in their ability to purchase and pay for a home over the long term," said TREB President Tom Lebour.

Year-to-date sales, at 54,303 are up slightly compared to 54,138 in 2008. Average price, at $385,603 is down by less than one half of one per cent.

"Strong resale housing demand will contribute to broader economic recovery as each transaction results in substantial spin-off benefits to other sectors of the economy," explained Jason Mercer, TREB's Senior Manager of Market Analysis.

Monday, July 20, 2009

Be careful when using and quoting TREB stats and press releases

I was asked:

Is this information, that is in the News and on the 'net, abound house prices
and multiple offers, true?
If so, could my house value really have gone up
more than 16% this year. If so, what was the benchmark to start from.
16% on
top of zero is still only 16%, however, 16% on top of 1 Mill. is a lot.
OR.....is this a bunch of "feel good BS" from the likes of Stats-Can.

Good question:

Yes, be careful about the reported real estate prices, the stats are often mis-quoted

When TREB reports 16% they are usually reporting that sales VOLUMES have increased 16% compared to the same month last year

Prices are currently UP about 4 to 5% since the low of January of this year after falling about $50,000 (from about $398k in April of 2008 to just under $350k in January of 2009) which is a drop of about 12% so we are still down compared to the zenith in spring of '08

http://www.mississauga4sale.com/TREBprice.htm#graph

TREB often reports that real estate is up, say 10%, but they are often referring to the sales volumes, not the prices. The average price is really only that, an average price, and areas can vary widely from the average. As well, you only need a few million plus dollar sales in one area to increase the average price in an area substantially, so again, be careful when using averages for your immeditate area.

Average prices are useful to watch trends over time.

Enjoy!
Mark


again, sent with mark@mississauga4sale.com and not the hotmail crap



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------





Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) Average Prices and Graph

For more information please contact A. Mark Argentino

A. Mark Argentino, Broker, P.Eng.,
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc., Brokerage
2691 Credit Valley Road, Suite 101, Mississauga, Ontario L5M 7A1

BUS. 905-828-3434
FAX. 905-828-2829
E-MAIL: mark@mississauga4sale.com
Website: Mississauga4Sale.com

Saturday, July 18, 2009

Has the Toronto Real Estate Market prices reached their Zenith? No way!

These are my 2 cents worth in response to Garth Turner's comments and predictions on our Canadian real estate bubble that is about to burst and that "This is because the housing market is at its zenith" as stated at his blog post here:

I don't agree that the housing market is at it's zenith. There is much room for the Mississauga Real Estate Market and the GTA real estate market to increase.

First things first.

Negative articles, press, blogs and news sells. Negative press has always sold newspapers and negative press is most sensational. You can read the negative press, but don't always follow the predictions, often they are wrong.

If you want to get noticed, write something very negative or go against the grain and many will notice. Other negative people will tell their negative stories, because negative people need validation of their negative experiences and observations, so they can say "I told you so" and sit on the sidelines and stay safe. (just read the majority of responses in this blog, it's the negative herd mentality).

I'm not saying negative people are wrong or that negative analysis is not necessary, but don't let it affect your psyche or your personality. Always be positive, even in negative situations and you will survive. Even some of the negative people who have written above are sometimes positive because they see opportunity in negative situations (what an upside world we live in)

If you say something positive or predict positive news about the future and it does not happen, people will point at you and put you down for being wrong. If negative press comes to be, the writer can say I told you so. If negative press does not occur, everyone forgets about the negative news and moves on, waiting for the next negative news.

Thus, negative news cannot lose.

I do not agree with Garths comments that he states our Canadian real estate bubble that is about to burst and that "This is because the housing market is at its zenith" We are no closer to the peak of real estate prices in the GTA or Canada than we were each spring and fall peak experienced during each year from 1995 to 2008

Some have commented about the 'emotional' aspects of the real estate market and the financial markets.

We all make decisions based upon emotion and then attempt to validate our 'emotional' decision with facts.

I would like to know where you think we currently are on the market emotions cycle as pictured here:

http://www.mississauga4sale.com/Market-Emotions-Cycle.htm#graph

Do you think we are at the point of Hope, Relief or maybe even optimism? If you asked any realtor back in October 2008 up to about January 2009 they would have said that we were in the area of Despondency. Our GTA marketplace was so depressed, sales were down incredibly, agents were getting out the business by the truckload and the future looked grim. Our 'price' bottom was January 2009 and since then prices have only increased in the GTA. This gives many of us reason for hope and even optimism, some in the downtown areas of Toronto are feeling euphoric of late with multiple offers and 100%+ selling prices. Could this real estate bubble last much longer? Will this real estate mini bubble last much longer? Your guess is as good as mine.

I've been a residential real estate agent in Mississauga since 1987 and I've watched people suffer from real estate losses and even lose their homes in the period from March 14, 1989 to about 1994 when the market began to increase again. Our real estate market has enjoyed unprecedented growth from 1995 to September of 2008. 14 years, incredible. During this period I had clients who were buying a new home in say 2001, closing 15 months later and making $100,000 profit and did it again from '03 to '05 or '07 and made a ton of money in real estate. I warned them that our market had already peaked at whatever it was at the time, $250,000 GTA average price, $300,000 average price and then $380,000 average price in '07, how high could it go and when would it burst. Well, I was wrong that the prices had 'maxed out' every time the TREB (Toronto Real Estate Board) price hit a new maximum each spring and fall from 1995 to the spring of 2008.

I carry two articles in my portfolio, one written in 1987 which talks about Toronto average real estate prices predicted to rise to over $200,000 in 1988 and another article that appeared in the Toronto Sun written by the Business Editor, who was none other than Garth Turner, dated January 7, 1988 where I have highlighted one paragraph that sums up why real estate in the GTA was undervalued, Garth states "This is the result of simple market forces - of supply and demand. As long as people are willing to sacrifice other aspects of their lives to liver where the action is, then prices will rise" Reasons for the huge increase in real estate values in the 80's were that women came into the work force during this decade and investors fueled the market from the mid 80's until '89. It was just a simple case of what Garth states, supply and demand. Many blamed the reason for the 'bust' back in '89 due to double digit inflation, double digit unemployment and investor greed. It took about 5 years to recover from that bubble. I feel that supply and demand was the fundamental reason why real estate continued it's unprecedented growth from 1995 to 2008 The differences in this last cycle of increase was that we had relatively low interest rates (actually an all time low in 03 and 04), low inflation and low unemployment. Again, supply and demand reared it ugly head and prices kept increasing. Only when the "financial crisis" peaked in September of 2008 did our local GTA real estate market pause. And this pause was only for about 4 months. Since January of 2009 prices have increased again.

So what's my point? Garth preaches doom and gloom for our future real estate market. I certainly hope he is wrong. I've read through all the comments on this post and while most bring up very important and factual points, these don't address the old adage of supply and demand. If there is demand and the demand continues, prices will stay about where they are or increase. If the US and the global economy improve over the next year, then we are in for another round of positive real estate markets in Canada. As long as people around the globe see Canada as 'the land of the free' they will continue to migrate here and as long as our Canadian economy does not run out of control, demand will exceed supply.

If you bought a home back in 1989 at the very peak of the TREB market and held that same home for the past 20 years you would still have 5 years left on your mortgage that was originally about $180,000 (assuming you put 10% down payment) and you would still owe about $50,000 on this mortgage assuming 8% average interest rate since 1989. You would now have a property worth about $400,000 and equity of about $350,000 If you are thinking of buying a home today, don't buy anything that takes up more than 35% of your gross income, make your amortization 20 years if you can handle the payment, or 25 years at the most. If you rented for $1375 (the mortgage payment for the preceding analysis) you would be paying about $2000 per month or more for the same house and you would have ZERO to show for it. Also, don't go for the 30 or 35 year mortgage. Go as short as you can to pay off that mortgage as quick as you can while the rates are low. I do believe what Garth predicts that rates will rise again to double digits by the year 2020, but if you pay down as much of your mortgage as you can in the next 10 years, you will be ok by the time the interest rates hit double digit again. My point is that if you sit on the sideline and hope for real estate values to drop 10 to 50% over the next year or two, you'll be out of luck (again) here in Canada. Our economy is not the same as the US anymore, our banking system is not the same and our mentality is not the same, certainly not similar to what SF Banker writes about.

So, what's my second point? Read the negative press, articles, blogs and such, but DON'T be negative and follow their advice in the long run. Buy real estate for the long run, buy real estate that is within your family budget and pay it off as quick as you can. So when the next 'drop' in the market occurs and the nay sayers say they are right, then you can buy another property at a good price! :-))

Just my 2 cents worth.

I wish you all the best!
Mark


Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) Average Prices and Graph

For more information please contact A. Mark Argentino

A. Mark Argentino, Broker, P.Eng.,
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc., Brokerage
2691 Credit Valley Road, Suite 101, Mississauga, Ontario L5M 7A1

BUS. 905-828-3434
FAX. 905-828-2829
E-MAIL: mark@mississauga4sale.com
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