Wednesday, September 06, 2006

TREB (Toronto Real Estate Board) reports August 2006 was a Strong Stable Month


August Shows Strong, Stable Results

TORONTO - Wednesday, September 6, 2006 -- TREB President Dorothy Mason announced today that the Toronto resale homeowners continued its run of healthy showings in August, with 6,976 homes changing hands through the TorontoMLS system.

"Last month was the second best August ever recorded, off moderately from the record 7,498 figure achieved in 2005. In addition, the year as a whole has seen 59,488 single-family dwelling sales, up marginally from 2005's January to August performance. As people return from their summer holidays, we are looking forward to an even more active autumn market."

Prices remain stable in August, with the Average coming in at $338,192, less than one per cent lower than the July figure of $342,034. This figure is up five per cent over the $323,255 recorded during August of 2005.

Breaking down the total, 2,627 sales were reported in TREB's 28 West districts and averaged $321,415; 1,181 sales were reported in the 14 Central districts and averaged $401,244; 1,493 sales were reported in the 23 North districts and averaged $388,674; and 1,675 sales were reported in TREB's 21 East districts and averaged $275,050.

Toronto's housing market remains steady

TORONTO, September 6, 2006 -- The August performance ever with 6,976 transactions recorded during the month, Toronto Real Estate Board President Dorothy Mason announced today.

The total number of transactions was within seven per cent of the all time record of 7,498 sales set last August. Year-to-date figures show 2006 to be marginally ahead of the record pace for annual sales also set in 2005.

Positive results like these show that the market is in good shape, Mrs. Mason said. Relative to other segments of the economy real estate is very locally driven, and the Toronto Area market has long been supported by strong economic fundamentals.

Consistent activity and steady price gains over an extended period of time have shown that housing demand in the GTA is based on real need, TREB's President added. Slight moderations in sales to more normalized levels help to keep the market from overheating, Ted Tsiakopoulos, Ontario regional economist for CMHC, noted that the good overall health of the market produces a variety of benefits.

While home sales across the GTA have been healthy, listings have also been rising, said Ted Tsiakopoulos, CMHC`s Ontario regional economist. A steady increase in new home listings is a good news story for Toronto's residential real estate market. Rising new listings provide more choice for buyers and ensures discipline among those pricing their homes for sale, added Mr. Tsiakopoulos.

Some of the most active neighbourhoods during the month were located outside the city core. In the East, the Scarborough Town Centre / Woburn area E09 showed a 27 per cent overall increase in transactions compared to last August, led by a jump in condominium sales. West of Toronto, Milton W22 showed an overall increase of 72 per cent compared to August 2005, led by strong sales of detached and semidetached homes.

It's a great time to be in this market whether starting out or making a switch, Mrs. Mason said. There is a lot of choice out there as we gear up for the busy autumn market.

Toronto REALTORS® are passionate about their work. They adhere to a strict code of ethics and share a state-of-the-art Multiple Listing Service designed exclusively for REALTORS®. Serving more than 24,000 Members in the Greater Toronto Area, the Toronto Real Estate Board is Canada's largest real estate board. Greater Toronto Area open house listings are now available on www.TorontoRealEstateBoard.com.

For more information please contact A. Mark Argentino

A. Mark Argentino Associate Broker, P.Eng.,
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
2691 Credit Valley Road, Suite 101, Mississauga, Ontario L5M 7A1

BUS 905-828-3434
FAX 905-828-2829
E-MAIL mark@mississauga4sale.com
Website: Mississauga4Sale.com

Bank of Canada stays steady on Bank Rate at 4.5% - September 6, 2006


Most recent interest rate announcement by the Bank of Canada September 6, 2006

OTTAWA - (CP) - The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 4 1/4 per cent. The operating band for the overnight rate will therefore remain unchanged at 4 1/2 per cent.

The Bank of Canada sites continued strength in the global economy. In Canada, the economy continues to fall in line with the Banks expectations in terms of output and inflation. Going forward, the Bank continues to expect the Canadian economy to operate at about its production potential.

The Bank of Canada's next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 17 October 2006.


For more information please contact A. Mark Argentino

A. Mark Argentino Associate Broker, P.Eng.,
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
2691 Credit Valley Road, Suite 101, Mississauga, Ontario L5M 7A1

BUS 905-828-3434
FAX 905-828-2829
E-MAIL mark@mississauga4sale.com
Website: Mississauga4Sale.com


Monday, September 04, 2006

S&P rates Mississauga "AAA" for the third straight year!


Mississauga gets 'AAA' for effort

MISSISSAUGA BUSINESS TIMES
Aug 24, 2006

Standard & Poor's Ratings Services assigned its 'AAA' credit rating on the City of Mississauga for the third straight year, based on the City's exceptional liquidity levels, debt-free position, and strategically located economy.

According to S&P, "Mississauga's debt-free tradition continued into 2005; placing the City ahead of its domestic and international peers with respect to debt burden. This was largely made possible through the City's large cash and investment holdings, allowing it to finance its capital programs on a pay-as-you-go basis." "This rating further enhances the City's profile in the financial sector," said City manager Janice Baker. "We have been successful at keeping tax increases to a minimum for many years and we are fortunate to be debt-free."

Outside the U.S., Mississauga is only the 9th municipality to earn the coveted 'AAA' rating. The stable outlook reflects the continuation of a strong and stable economy, and is based on the prospect that there will be no deterioration in operating balances. Courtesy of the Mississauga Business Times


For more information please contact A. Mark Argentino

A. Mark Argentino Associate Broker, P.Eng.,
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
2691 Credit Valley Road, Suite 101, Mississauga, Ontario L5M 7A1

BUS 905-828-3434
FAX 905-828-2829
E-MAIL mark@mississauga4sale.com
Website: Mississauga4Sale.com

Sunday, September 03, 2006

Mississauga City Centre Skyline and Central Core Area Developing Well



This may be the future of Mississauga - The future for the downtown core looks bright.

Mississauga Business Times Where is our city's skyline? We might see a Mississauga core with real identity says U of T professor

"You're never going to see an office tower in the city centre, unless Mississauga decides they will build parking in conjunction with the developers."
Where is the Mississauga skyline?

Having surpassed the 700,000 mark in population, Canada's sixth-largest city still lacks the downtown commercial skyscrapers traditionally equated with the world's great cities. While there are plenty of condos going up, the city centre hasn't seen a new high-rise office building in more than 20 years.

"There's a real easy reason for that," says Jim Wilson, vice-president of Cushman Wakefield & LePage's Mississauga office. "That's because we've got land, and it costs more to go up than it does to go out."

Ray Wong, senior analyst with CB Richard Ellis agrees that, "in Mississauga, the land costs are a lot more affordable (than in downtown Toronto). As well the floor plates are a lot larger."

"There's not really a need to go high up," he says. "The higher up you go, the more expensive the building."

When the question is put to him, J.J. Barnicke Ltd. Chair Joe Barnicke responds, "The city can do nothing about it. If there's a market for office skyscrapers, it will be there. When you get the really large firms, if they're going to Mississauga, they're going to have their own building."

Indeed, major Mississauga-based corporations like Microsoft Canada, and Bell Mobility, have chosen to build stand-alone monuments along the 400 series of highways. Banks like RBC and TD have, similarly, moved some of their back room, processing functions out to this suburb, while their executives have remained in the Bay Street towers for that all-important presence, and to be, "where the action is."

Wong explains that in the car-intensive suburban market, it makes sense for office development to gravitate to areas like the Hwy. 10-401 nexus, where it's more accessible for employees to get to work (in the absence of a heavy-duty public transit network), above-ground parking can be provided for employees (versus them having to pay for it in the city centre), and companies can exercise better control over their facility.

"There's nothing wrong with a suburban market, and not having a full downtown. It's just based on demand," he adds. "And in Mississauga, there's a lot more options to build, with respect to land."

Jim Murray, senior vice-president with J.J. Barnicke's Mississauga office says it really comes down to one issue: parking.

"You're never going to see an office tower in the city centre unless Mississauga decides they will build parking in conjunction with the developers. The cost of parking is prohibitive," he states.

According to Murray, an underground parking space in the downtown core costs approximately $35,000, and the net return from that is about $1,800 a year in rent.

"I would say 15 years ago the most attractive node for office occupancy was the Mississauga city centre. Today, it's not even close," he continues. "The Airport Corporate Centre is more dominant, Meadowvale is more dominant."

"When the greenfield sites are gone, then there will be the rationale to invest in parking facilities and attract the critical mass to the city centre."

While it may be the general impression that Mississauga is all but built out, Wilson observes that "relatively speaking, we do have land left here for office development. We've got land on Hwy. 10 between 401 and 407 which will be the next focus of development."

Paul's Properties, for example, has just purchased land at Courtneypark and Hurontario.

He says this area is now a destination for flex office development, which from both a landlord and tenant's standpoint is "timely and relatively inexpensive."

"We haven't seen development (in the Mississauga downtown) because frankly rents have not been able to justify the costs," he adds. "In the city centre you have to provide underground or on the street parking, and because of that it costs more to build, and it takes a lot longer."

What's more, he says landlords are looking at new ways of calculating square footage (to maximize their returns), so that long-term tenants looking to renew their leases in the city centre may be in for some "sticker shock".

"Companies like having the flexibility to do a design-build, because if you're operating your own building you're not paying somebody a management fee, and it's a more efficient building," he adds.

Wilson suggests that "from an urban perspective, a lot of people mistake density for importance and significance. And a lot of people in downtown Toronto are fighting to reduce densities, and improve the balance between working and living space."

He deems the recent LEED (Leading Energy and Environmental Design) standard for environmentally-friendly construction and occupancy of buildings to be "the single most important development in North America in decades."

Within three years he feels, "probably every federal, municipal and provincial office will be mandated to be occupying a LEED-certified building."

However, with three exciting new, high end hotel/condo projects pegged for the Toronto downtown (including the Trump Tower, and the Shanghai), comes the harsh reality that Mississauga's city centre has still not attracted a second hotel to accompany the Novotel.

"That will have to come as a participation between the private sector and the public sector (in terms of parking). And I think it's coming," Murray comments. "Otherwise, you will continue to see condos."

"I could see office buildings downtown, but I question hotels," Barnicke adds. "Because if you're going to build hotels in Mississauga, it's going to be closer to the airport."

Citing the recent condo design competition within Mississauga, which produced the exciting, twisting, "Marilyn Monroe-style" Absolute building as its winner - reaching the front pages of the Toronto dailies - Dr. Alan Walks, a geography professor at University of Toronto, specializing in urban studies, says, "it looks like it is heading in that direction. I think (the city centre) will eventually have a dense, identifiable cluster of skyscrapers and office towers."

"We're likely to see a Mississauga city centre with an identity of its own."

Dr. Walks observes that while for many years, the City of Mississauga followed an approach to urban planning which "reinforced the sprawl aspect", the city reached a turning point in the mid-'90s and has since been pushing to make the downtown a mixed use, high-occupancy location.

"They've yet to be able to attract those type of uses, other than residential and retail. In the future, it's possible. There's a tendency to follow where the people are."

"So far it has been driven by condo development, but saying that, businesses will look at points of accessibility, particularly if they can make it easier by bringing in rapid transit," he continues. "So as more and more condos get built at close proximity, it will be cheaper and cheaper for office buildings to be built in that area."

Wong agrees that with the heavy concentration of condos sprouting up, office towers may follow because "people want to be close to work."

"Look at the condo development (in downtown Toronto)," he adds. "It makes the city more livable."

While acknowledging the lingering image of the Mississauga city centre as sterile and reflecting current trends from 25 years ago (with a shopping centre at its heart), Wilson feels the developers at city centre "have done a great job of infilling occupancy levels with residential units, and that the infill of development on the west side of Hwy. 403 has added to the attraction (with restaurants, movie theatres, and retail). "I see absolutely nothing wrong with residential development in the city centre," he says. "If you're going to have high-density residential development, I think the city centre is the place to have it."

"Density is happening. It is innovative, and I think Mississauga is a model a lot of cities should be following - because they do things right. I think too many people denigrate the city for a lack of character. That's kind of the Canadian way."

Dr. Walks, likewise, doesn't have any problem per se with the heavy retail uses in the city core.

"It's the way these areas have evolved, particularly with the large (Square One) parking lot between retail and city hall. If the retail abutted right at the city hall area, you'd have a lot more intimacy, and you'd achieve synergies."

"But I don't see the city centre having too many barriers, to making it a livable, synergetic location. There's a few problems." Article courtesy Mississauga News and Mississauga Business Times

For more information please contact A. Mark Argentino

A. Mark Argentino Associate Broker, P.Eng.,
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
2691 Credit Valley Road, Suite 101, Mississauga, Ontario L5M 7A1

BUS 905-828-3434
FAX 905-828-2829
E-MAIL mark@mississauga4sale.com
Website: Mississauga4Sale.com

Friday, September 01, 2006

Housing Starts were strong in July in the Toronto housing market



The Toronto housing market experienced stron housing starts in July 2006

July home construction in the Toronto Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) remained strong, but continued on a downward trend. The seasonally-adjusted annual rate of starts was 41,600 - down slightly from 43,800 in June. For the first seven months of 2006, on an unadjusted basis, new home starts declined by over 13 per cent compared to the same period last year.


Over the past two years, the resale home market has become more balanced, meaning home buyers have benefited from more choice. Increased resale home listings coupled with high home prices have resulted in fewer pre-construction

HOUSING STARTS STRONG IN JULY

Sales of low-rise homes and lower housing starts. Condominium apartment starts, at 1,261 in July, remained strong, though not as exceptional as in July of last year when condominium apartment starts spiked to 3,387. Despite the decline, year-to-date building activity points to a second consecutive year of record condominium apartment construction. Condominium apartments are becoming an increasingly popular home ownership option for many households. The average prices and mortgage payments associated with ground-oriented homes, including single-detached houses, are too high for many buyers, especially those purchasing their first home. The average price for a completed and absorbed single-detached house through July was almost $460,000, with a monthly principal and interest payment of approximatley $2,400 (calculated using a 25 per cent down payment and a five-year fixed rate mortgage amortized over 25 years). The minimum annual income required to carry this mortgage is slightly more than $90,000 (assumes a gross debt-to-service ratio of 32 per cent), which is above the average household income in the Toronto area. This article is courtesy of CMHC


For more information please contact A. Mark Argentino

A. Mark Argentino Associate Broker, P.Eng.,
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
2691 Credit Valley Road, Suite 101, Mississauga, Ontario L5M 7A1

BUS 905-828-3434
FAX 905-828-2829
E-MAIL mark@mississauga4sale.com
Website: Mississauga4Sale.com

Wednesday, August 23, 2006

Mississauga MLS Districts W12 - W20 average prices for Detached



Mississauga District average prices for Detached, semi detached, condo townhouses and condominium high-rises in graphical form

The image/chart below shows the average prices in each district of Mississauga during the last period

The prices shown in the image below will give you an idea of average prices in each district in Mississauga as provided by the Mississauga Real Estate Board using data from TREB (Toronto Real Estate Board) The latest month is shown on the image.

Click the image to see large scale image.

Mississauga monthly update of prices for each district

To see specific boundary locations for each district on the map, you may find the TREB maps here

For more information please contact A. Mark Argentino

A. Mark Argentino Associate Broker, P.Eng.,
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
2691 Credit Valley Road, Suite 101, Mississauga, Ontario L5M 7A1

BUS 905-828-3434
FAX 905-828-2829
E-MAIL mark@mississauga4sale.com
Website: Mississauga4Sale.com

Tuesday, August 22, 2006

You may have noticed - Canadian Banks are now being Phished on a more regular basis - especially The Royal Bank!

Canadian Banks are now being Phished. What is Mark talking about??

Canadian Bank Clients are Targets for Phishing Scams. And Yes it's true.

A common e-mail scam known as phishing that attempts to trick clients of an online service into divulging their login information has typically been setup to target clients of E-Bay, PayPal or Citibank. We are now beginning to see Canadian financial institutions being used for phishing scams.

Users of online services should always disregard any e-mail that either requests confidential information or provides a link to a services login page. A financial institution will never request confidential information via an e-mail. E-mails of this type should be forwarded to the services online fraud investigation department.

How many times have you heard this "never divulge your personal information" line? High profile cases of identity theft are routinely reported on CNN and MSN, etc. Yet people continue to be scammed. Are people stupid? Well, not really. Perhaps some are just a little more naive than others.

The sophistication of online scams continues to improve and it's becoming more and more difficult to separate the fake from the real. While Canadian financial institutions have been comparatively small enough to fly under the "phisher radar" in the past, it appears that the easy availability of online scamming resources has made it profitable even in Canada, eh?

After all, a phisher really only needs a few people out of tens of thousands of phishing emails to hand over their credit card numbers to make it worth the effort.

What is Phishing?
Phishing occurs when you receive an email claiming to be from PayPal, EBay, a bank or any company that holds important information about you. These emails typically say things like, your account is outdated, there is unusual activity in your account or something of that nature. They will then display a link for you to go to - to update your account information or login to fix whatever problem they are reporting. Unfortunately, the site that the link takes you to is not the actual site, it is a phony site that attempts to fool you by displaying logos and trademarks of the company in question and attempting to spoof the URL that is displayed in the address bar. They want you to enter in all your account information and passwords and they record this information to later gain access to your account and your credit cards.

How do I Prevent Phishing?
Don't believe anything you receive in emails! It isn't often that any reputable company will email you telling you to update your account details. And never follow links in email. Always open your browser and type in the address - that way you know you are going to the right site. A good way to check is to cut and paste the subject of the email you receive into Google and see what comes up. Chances are someone has received this email before you and results will be shown immediately. A good site to check for Phishing attempts is FraudWatchInternational.com.

How do I Report Phishing?
Report Phishing attempts to www.AntiPhishing.org

Or report phishing to your bank, credit card company or the company that is contained in the email.

To learn more about phishing and other forms of identity theft, check out the following links:

http://www.safecanada.ca/identitytheft_e.asp

Article

For more information please contact A. Mark Argentino

A. Mark Argentino Associate Broker, P.Eng.,
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
2691 Credit Valley Road, Suite 101, Mississauga, Ontario L5M 7A1

BUS 905-828-3434
FAX 905-828-2829
E-MAIL mark@mississauga4sale.com
Website: Mississauga4Sale.com


Wednesday, August 16, 2006

The Canadian Economy at a glance



The Canadian Economy at a glance

The Canadian economy stood still in May following minor 0.1% increases
in March and April GDP. The May GDP reading came in well below market
expectations of a 0.3% gain. Growth in goods-producing industries fell
for the third consecutive month (-0.5%), led by weakness in the mining, oil
and gas extraction and construction sectors. The services producing industries
advanced by a relatively tame 0.2% and were unable to make up for
the weakness in the goods-producing sector. The largest gains were registered
in wholesale trade, the financial sector and public administration,
while retail trade was down. The energy sector declined 1.5% in May due
in part to temporary closures of east coast oil fields, suggesting that some
of this month’s weak growth should be reversed in the months ahead.This
GDP report supports our forecast that the Bank of Canada will hold rates
steady at its next rates setting meeting on September 6.

Latest job report not all bad news
Latest month: July

The labour market lost 5,500 jobs in July, well below market expectations
of a 23,000 gain and slight decrease from June levels. On the positive side,
the 5,500 job losses were entirely due to a 27,000 drop in part-time jobs
RBC Economics
Continuously updated analyses of six key economic indicators tracking emerging trends in the Canadian economy.
Canada
EcoTrends

Latest data available: August 11, 2006
Highlights

The Canadian economy stood still in May following
minor 0.1% increases in March and April GDP.
However, the 1.5% decline in the energy sector was
due in part to temporary closures of east coast oil
fields, suggesting that some of the economic weakness
should be reversed in the months ahead.
􀁓 The labour market lost 5,500 jobs in July. On
the positive side, the job losses were entirely due to a
27,000 drop in part-time jobs with full-time jobs increasing
by 21,600. The participation and employment
rates both stand near all-time highs.
After April’s robust 1.7% month-over-month
gain, retail sales fell 0.6% in May. However, despite
May’s weakness, retail sales continue to be positive
for the domestic economy.

Housing starts rose to a 236,500 in July, just
slightly above slightly above June's 236,400 starts.
We expect the housing market to gradually slow but
anticipate that robust labour market conditions will
prevent housing activity from deteriorating too sharply.
Canada’s merchandise trade surplus rose to
C$4.7 billion in June from C$4.1 billion in May. Although
the surplus was narrower in the second quarter
than in the first, demand for Canadian exports remains
very strong, especially energy exports..
The all-items consumer price index (CPI) fell
by 0.2% in June. The CPI excluding the eight most
volatile components (CPIX) also fell 0.2% in the
month and slipped to 1.7% from a year ago, thus providing
the Bank of Canada with some breathing room.
with full-time jobs increasing by 21,600. The loss of 33,000 manufacturing
jobs was nearly offset by the 22,000 jobs created in the construction sector
as construction shifts from the housing sector to the commercial, industrial
and institutional sectors.The unemployment rate rose to 6.4% from 6.1%
on the back of an increase in the participation rate, a positive development
since more Canadians enter the labour market when job prospects are attractive.
The participation and employment rates both stand near all-time
highs. Average hourly earnings rose yet again to 3.7% on a year-over-year
basis, well above CPI inflation of 2.5%, with real wage gains averaging
1.2%. The rise in average hourly earnings and overall job creation this year
remain consistent with above-trend economic growth. The labour market
lost 5,500 jobs in July. On the positive side, the job losses were entirely due
to a 27,000 drop in part-time jobs with full-time jobs increasing by 21,600.
The participation and employment rates both stand near all-time highs.
Retail sales stage a retreat
Latest month: May

After April’s robust 1.7% month-over-month gain, retail sales fell 0.6% in
May. Sales in the automotive sector, which make up more than one-third
of total retail sales in Canada, fell by 2.1%. Excluding autos, retail sales
fell 0.2%. Sales at food and beverage stores declined 0.6%. Increases in
the other five retail sectors partially offset these declines. Adjusted for prices
increases, real retail sales fell 0.6% following a gain of 1.2% in April.
Despite May’s weakness, retail sales continue to be strongly supportive of
the domestic economy. Assuming no growth at all in June, real retail sales
would still register a robust 7.2% growth rate in the second quarter.
Housing starts stronger than expected
Latest month: July

Housing starts rose to a 236,500 (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in July,
just slightly above June's 236,400 starts, but much stronger than the market
consensus call for 225,000. The residential housing market has slowed
from the abnormally strong first quarter but remains relatively robust. Starts
averaged 247,600 in the first quarter and 229,100 in the second. Activity in
July was supported by the 3.9% rise multiple-unit starts. Single-unit starts
slipped by 3.5% and were at the lowest level this year. Year-to-date starts
were 3.1% above year-ago levels with multi-unit starts growing by 4.3%
and single-unit starts by a more modest 0.9%. Going forward, we expect
the housing market to gradually slow but anticipate that robust labour market
conditions will prevent housing activity from deteriorating too sharply
even in the face of high energy prices and modest further increases in interest
rates. This report supports our view that the Canadian economy is growing
at decent clip and is consistent with our call that the Bank of Canada may
need to implement some future policy action to quell inflationary pressures
later this year.

Trade surplus continues to grow
Latest month: June

Canada’s merchandise trade surplus increased to C$4.7 billion in June from
C$4.1 billion in May. The increase in exports was broad-based with only
agricultural and fishing products posting a decline. The largest increases
were in the energy and industrial product sectors. Imports fell by 0.7%,
posting the second consecutive decline and the fourth decrease this year.
Imports of machinery and equipment, industrial goods and materials, energy
products and forestry products fell. Agricultural and fishing products,
autos and other consumer goods posted gains.In constant dollars, exports
increased by 0.7%, while imports were little changed. Real imports of merchandise
goods were up at a 7.3% annual rate in the second quarter, while
exports were down at a 7.7% annual rate, indicating that net trade was a
drag on real GDP growth in the quarter. However, this report shows that
demand for Canadian exports remains very strong, especially energy, and
is supporting a decent sized trade surplus.

Core inflation rate pulls back
Latest month: June

The all-items consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.2% in June and was
2.5% higher than a year ago. The all-items index excluding the eight most
volatile components (CPIX) also fell 0.2% in the month and slipped to
1.7%, well below forecasts for a rise to 2.1%. Higher gasoline prices, homeowners’
replacement costs and electricity prices supported the month-overmonth
increase in the CPI. The pace of increase in gasoline prices slowed
to 15.4% from 18.6% in May, while natural gas prices increased at a 6.5%
year-over-year rate, down from May’s 15.6%. For the CPIX, lower prices
for clothing and the purchase and leasing of autos offset higher homeowners'
replacement costs and rising prices for restaurant meals and paper supplies.
With the CPIX inflation rate falling back in June, the case for the
Bank of Canada to raise the policy rate in the near-term has been lessened.
The core inflation rate averaged 1.8% in the second quarter, bang on the
Bank’s forecast. Still, the case for an increase in the overnight rate can be
made given that the economy is operating in a state of excess demand and
recent indicators suggest that the economy continued to grow at an abovepotential
rate in the second quarter.

Source: "Financial Markets Monthly", Economics Departnment, RBC Financial Group.

For more information please contact A. Mark Argentino

A. Mark Argentino Associate Broker, P.Eng.,
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
2691 Credit Valley Road, Suite 101, Mississauga, Ontario L5M 7A1

BUS 905-828-3434
FAX 905-828-2829
E-MAIL mark@mississauga4sale.com
Website: Mississauga4Sale.com

Canadian manufacturing shipments beat expectations



Canadian manufacturing shipments beat expectations
August 16, 2006

Manufacturing shipments rose 1.9% in June, besting expectations of a 0.2% rise. May’s reading was revised down to -0.7%. The much better-than-expected data will be negative for bonds and positive for the currency.

June’s 1.9% rise puts the level of shipments at its highest since January. Gains were posted in 13 of 21 industries. Durable goods shipments increased by 1.1%. Shipments of motor vehicles increased 3%. Shipments of non-durable goods increased 2.8%, led by petroleum and coal products as refinery output returned to normal production levels. Shipments in Quebec and Ontario both increased.

Inventories fell by 0.7%. The inventory-to-sales ratio, a measure of how long it would take to exhaust inventories at the current rate of shipments, declined from its recent high of 1.31 to 1.28 in June. Unfilled orders were up 0.1%, up from May’s 0.6% decline. Manufacturing employment fell by 4,100. June’s gain puts the average monthly gain of shipments at a modest 0.1% for the quarter.
Although manufacturers are suffering, as evidenced by declines in manufacturing employment, this report suggests that they may be managing to cope with the effects of the Canadian dollar and increased global competition.

Monthly pace of increase in U.S. core inflation slows down
The seasonally adjusted all-items CPI rose 0.4% in July, but the less volatile and more closely watched core CPI rose only 0.2%, below the market forecast for a 0.3% increase. Yesterday’s rally in U.S. Treasuries on the back of a round of weak data will likely continue as the monthly increase in the core inflation rate was lower than market forecasts. The report should be negative for the U.S. dollar.

The not seasonally adjusted core CPI rose 2.7% on a year-over-year basis, the fastest pace of increase since December 2001, and above the Fed’s comfort level given its most recent central tendency forecast for an increase in the core rate of inflation of 2.25% to 2.5% over the four quarters of 2006.

However, the monthly pace of increase in July was slower than in the previous four months when prices increased at a 0.3% pace and, as such, is feeding market sentiment that price pressures are abating.

A 1.2% decline in apparel prices was largely responsible for the slowing in the pace of increase in the core inflation in the month. The all-items index rose by 0.4% reflecting a 2.9% jump in prices for energy products with gasoline prices rising at a strong 5.3% pace.

The core rate increased on a year-over-year basis for the fourth consecutive month and our proprietary model tracking core inflation, which is based on the lagged impact of changes in unit labour costs and core producer prices, points to a continued climb in the core inflation rate in the months ahead.

While recent data have increased sentiment that the next move by the Federal Reserve could be an easing in interest rates, we continue to be cautious about this view and expect that, if our forecast for the core inflation rate to continue to trend higher in the months ahead proves to be correct, another 25 basis-point rate increase is more likely than an easing move.

Deceleration in U.S. housing market activity continues
July housing starts fell 2.5% to an annualized rate of 1.795 million units from a downwardly revised 1.841 million pace in June. The July reading was weaker than expected with the market consensus calling for a decrease to a pace of 1.810 million units. The weaker-than-expected data will be negative for the currency, positive for bonds.

Housing activity decelerated in July, with housing starts falling to a rate of 1.795 million units, the slowest pace since May 2003 and building on the deterioration in the second quarter.

Both single and multiple unit starts registered decreases, with starts of singles falling to 1.452 million units from 1.486 million units and multiples starts falling to 343,000 from June’s reading of 355,000. Building permits, a precursor to future housing market activity, fell by 6.5% in July. The National Association of Homebuilders Housing Market Index, a gauge of homebuilders’ optimism, fell to 32 in August after falling to 39 in July. Both of these reads are very low.

These factors suggest that there may be continued deceleration in housing market activity. This report gives support to the view that, for the near-term, the Fed will remain on hold, but the rise in the year-over-year rate in core CPI suggests that inflationary risks remain.
Source: "Financial Markets Monthly", Economics Departnment, RBC Financial Group



For more information please contact A. Mark Argentino

A. Mark Argentino Associate Broker, P.Eng.,
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
2691 Credit Valley Road, Suite 101, Mississauga, Ontario L5M 7A1

BUS 905-828-3434
FAX 905-828-2829
E-MAIL mark@mississauga4sale.com
Website: Mississauga4Sale.com

Thursday, August 10, 2006

Real Estate in the GTA and Canada - ECONOMIC & FINANCIAL UPDATE



ECONOMIC & FINANCIAL UPDATE


August 2006


The global economy has been performing remarkably
well in recent years. World economic growth has been
running at its strongest pace in more than three
decades, fueling a dramatic rise in commodity
prices, rapid growth in profits and better labour
market opportunities. Booming economic conditions in
China, India and a number of other emerging
economies led the way, but the industrialized
nations participated as well. For example, after
more than a decade of stagnation, Japan turned a
corner last year with its banking sector
recapitalized, deflation drawing to a close and amid
stronger domestic economic conditions. In Europe,
the corporate sector has fared well, and although
economic growth has been modest, there were signs of
improvement in late 2005 and in the first half of
2006.


In North America, economic times have also been
better than most people realize. Economic growth in
both the United States and Canada has been solid, as
unemployment fell to historically low levels and
profits advanced at a robust pace. Also, domestic
demand in the form of consumer spending and business
investment has proven strong. In Canada, the main
economic handicap has been the lagged fallout from a
high-flying Canadian dollar. Although it has been a
painful adjustment, businesses have coped well by
cutting costs and boosting their productivity in
order to limit their loss of competitiveness; as a
result, the Canadian economy expanded at a healthy
pace. Looking forward, however, it appears that
economic conditions may be less robust.


Economic expansion to moderate


In the United States, the U.S. Federal Reserve has
raised interest rates considerably from their 1.00
per cent trough in order to ensure that inflation
remains in check. The result of these higher
interest rates means that monetary policy could act
as a headwind to the economy going forward. In
addition to tempering consumer spending, and to a
lesser extent business investment, higher interest
rates are cooling U.S. real estate markets. This is
likely to dampen consumer spending as the powerful
wealth effects arising from past home price
increases, mortgage refinancing and cashing-out of
home equity wanes. As a result, TD Economics
believes that the average annual pace of U.S.
economic growth in 2007 will likely slacken.
However, a hard landing is not anticipated and some
improvement can be reasonably expected in the latter
part of the year.


Any moderation in U.S. economic growth will impact
other economies. Softer U.S. demand would likely
dampen international exports, leading to slower
economic growth in the major U.S. trading partners.
However, given the momentum in world expansion, the
overall pace of global growth is expected to remain
above its historical average, and there is little
chance that the Chinese and Indian boom could be
derailed. Canada could be adversely affected, as
exports represent roughly 40 per cent of the economy
and as 85 per cent of Canadian shipments head
Stateside. Simultaneously, the Canadian economy will
be feeling the lagged effect of the Bank of Canada’s
rate hikes delivered in late 2005 and in 2006, which
suggests some moderation in consumer spending and
housing markets. Overall, the annual pace of
Canadian economic growth is forecasted to slow
modestly in 2007, but this national perspective
masks the likelihood of continued above-average
growth in Western Canada, and a sub-par performance
in Central Canada and parts of Atlantic Canada.


Financial implications


This economic backdrop has many financial
implications.


First, weaker economic growth suggests a modest pace
of corporate profit growth in 2007. However, strong
corporate balance sheets should allow the majority
of firms to ride out any weaker economic times.


Second, commodity prices are vulnerable to a further
correction, as a slowdown in the world’s largest
economy – the United States – could result in softer
global demand for raw materials. Having said that,
price levels should remain high, supported by strong
demand from Asia. Some commodities may also break
from the general trend. So, while oil prices could
drop, natural gas prices are forecast to rise –
barring another extraordinarily mild winter.


Third, interest rates are likely to decline in late
2006 and early 2007. Weaker economic growth would
lower the risks of inflation, leading to a rally in
bonds. There is also a possibility that the Federal
Reserve and the Bank of Canada could cut rates to
limit the slowdown. However, as economic conditions
gradually recover, interest rates would most likely
rise once again.


Fourth, the U.S. dollar is likely to lose ground
relative to the other major currencies, including
the Japanese yen and the euro. The Canadian dollar
could also benefit from U.S. dollar weakness, but in
recent years the dominant driver behind movements in
the exchange rate has been commodity prices.
Nevertheless, even if commodity prices decline as
anticipated, the Canadian dollar should remain
strong and it will likely hold well above its
estimated fair value of 82 U.S. cents.


Weakness will pass


Lastly, it should be stressed that the economic
slowdown should prove mild and transitory. While
economic and financial volatility may be present,
the underlying fundamentals should remain positive.
Unemployment is forecast to remain low, interest
rates are anticipated to remain modest by historical
standards, and income is likely to continue to rise.
As a result, households, businesses and investors
should not panic if there are signs of economic
moderation, as the economies should recover in the
near future. Used with permission from TD Canada Trust.

For more information please contact A. Mark Argentino

A. Mark Argentino Associate Broker, P.Eng.,
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
2691 Credit Valley Road, Suite 101, Mississauga, Ontario L5M 7A1

BUS 905-828-3434
FAX 905-828-2829
E-MAIL mark@mississauga4sale.com
Website: Mississauga4Sale.com