These are my 2 cents worth in response to Garth Turner's comments and predictions on our Canadian real estate bubble that is about to burst and that "This is because the housing market is at its zenith" as stated at his
blog post here:
I don't agree that the housing market is at it's zenith. There is much room for the Mississauga Real Estate Market and the GTA real estate market to increase.
First things first.
Negative articles, press, blogs and news sells. Negative press has always sold newspapers and negative press is most sensational. You can read the negative press, but don't always follow the predictions, often they are wrong.
If you want to get noticed, write something very negative or go against the grain and many will notice. Other negative people will tell their negative stories, because negative people need validation of their negative experiences and observations, so they can say "I told you so" and sit on the sidelines and stay safe. (just read the majority of responses in this blog, it's the negative herd mentality).
I'm not saying negative people are wrong or that negative analysis is not necessary, but don't let it affect your psyche or your personality. Always be positive, even in negative situations and you will survive. Even some of the negative people who have written above are sometimes positive because they see opportunity in negative situations (what an upside world we live in)
If you say something positive or predict positive news about the future and it does not happen, people will point at you and put you down for being wrong. If negative press comes to be, the writer can say I told you so. If negative press does not occur, everyone forgets about the negative news and moves on, waiting for the next negative news.
Thus, negative news cannot lose.
I do not agree with Garths comments that he states our Canadian real estate bubble that is about to burst and that "This is because the housing market is at its zenith" We are no closer to the peak of real estate prices in the GTA or Canada than we were each spring and fall peak experienced during each year from 1995 to 2008
Some have commented about the 'emotional' aspects of the real estate market and the financial markets.
We all make decisions based upon emotion and then attempt to validate our 'emotional' decision with facts.
I would like to know where you think we currently are on the market emotions cycle as pictured here:
http://www.mississauga4sale.com/Market-Emotions-Cycle.htm#graphDo you think we are at the point of Hope, Relief or maybe even optimism? If you asked any realtor back in October 2008 up to about January 2009 they would have said that we were in the area of Despondency. Our GTA marketplace was so depressed, sales were down incredibly, agents were getting out the business by the truckload and the future looked grim. Our 'price' bottom was January 2009 and since then prices have only increased in the GTA. This gives many of us reason for hope and even optimism, some in the downtown areas of Toronto are feeling euphoric of late with multiple offers and 100%+ selling prices. Could this real estate bubble last much longer? Will this real estate mini bubble last much longer? Your guess is as good as mine.
I've been a residential real estate agent in Mississauga since 1987 and I've watched people suffer from real estate losses and even lose their homes in the period from March 14, 1989 to about 1994 when the market began to increase again. Our real estate market has enjoyed unprecedented growth from 1995 to September of 2008. 14 years, incredible. During this period I had clients who were buying a new home in say 2001, closing 15 months later and making $100,000 profit and did it again from '03 to '05 or '07 and made a ton of money in real estate. I warned them that our market had already peaked at whatever it was at the time, $250,000 GTA average price, $300,000 average price and then $380,000 average price in '07, how high could it go and when would it burst. Well, I was wrong that the prices had 'maxed out' every time the TREB (Toronto Real Estate Board) price hit a new maximum each spring and fall from 1995 to the spring of 2008.
I carry two articles in my portfolio, one written in 1987 which talks about Toronto average real estate prices predicted to rise to over $200,000 in 1988 and another article that appeared in the Toronto Sun written by the Business Editor, who was none other than Garth Turner, dated January 7, 1988 where I have highlighted one paragraph that sums up why real estate in the GTA was undervalued, Garth states "This is the result of simple market forces - of supply and demand. As long as people are willing to sacrifice other aspects of their lives to liver where the action is, then prices will rise" Reasons for the huge increase in real estate values in the 80's were that women came into the work force during this decade and investors fueled the market from the mid 80's until '89. It was just a simple case of what Garth states, supply and demand. Many blamed the reason for the 'bust' back in '89 due to double digit inflation, double digit unemployment and investor greed. It took about 5 years to recover from that bubble. I feel that supply and demand was the fundamental reason why real estate continued it's unprecedented growth from 1995 to 2008 The differences in this last cycle of increase was that we had relatively low interest rates (actually an all time low in 03 and 04), low inflation and low unemployment. Again, supply and demand reared it ugly head and prices kept increasing. Only when the "financial crisis" peaked in September of 2008 did our local GTA real estate market pause. And this pause was only for about 4 months. Since January of 2009 prices have increased again.
So what's my point? Garth preaches doom and gloom for our future real estate market. I certainly hope he is wrong. I've read through all the comments on this post and while most bring up very important and factual points, these don't address the old adage of supply and demand. If there is demand and the demand continues, prices will stay about where they are or increase. If the US and the global economy improve over the next year, then we are in for another round of positive real estate markets in Canada. As long as people around the globe see Canada as 'the land of the free' they will continue to migrate here and as long as our Canadian economy does not run out of control, demand will exceed supply.
If you bought a home back in 1989 at the very peak of the TREB market and held that same home for the past 20 years you would still have 5 years left on your mortgage that was originally about $180,000 (assuming you put 10% down payment) and you would still owe about $50,000 on this mortgage assuming 8% average interest rate since 1989. You would now have a property worth about $400,000 and equity of about $350,000 If you are thinking of buying a home today, don't buy anything that takes up more than 35% of your gross income, make your amortization 20 years if you can handle the payment, or 25 years at the most. If you rented for $1375 (the mortgage payment for the preceding analysis) you would be paying about $2000 per month or more for the same house and you would have ZERO to show for it. Also, don't go for the 30 or 35 year mortgage. Go as short as you can to pay off that mortgage as quick as you can while the rates are low. I do believe what Garth predicts that rates will rise again to double digits by the year 2020, but if you pay down as much of your mortgage as you can in the next 10 years, you will be ok by the time the interest rates hit double digit again. My point is that if you sit on the sideline and hope for real estate values to drop 10 to 50% over the next year or two, you'll be out of luck (again) here in Canada. Our economy is not the same as the US anymore, our banking system is not the same and our mentality is not the same, certainly not similar to what SF Banker writes about.
So, what's my second point? Read the negative press, articles, blogs and such, but DON'T be negative and follow their advice in the long run. Buy real estate for the long run, buy real estate that is within your family budget and pay it off as quick as you can. So when the next 'drop' in the market occurs and the nay sayers say they are right, then you can buy another property at a good price! :-))
Just my 2 cents worth.
I wish you all the best!
Mark
For more information please contact A. Mark Argentino
A. Mark Argentino, Broker, P.Eng.,
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc., Brokerage
2691 Credit Valley Road, Suite 101, Mississauga, Ontario L5M 7A1
BUS. 905-828-3434
FAX. 905-828-2829
E-MAIL:
mark@mississauga4sale.comWebsite:
Mississauga4Sale.com
