Friday, October 26, 2012

Wednesday, October 24, 2012

Question about GTA market following the drop in Vancouver's real estate marketplace

I had a couple of questions from a reader.

She asked:

Thanks Mark for the statistics. My concern is although the price rise, sales volume drop by 21%. Does this signal that indicate GTA follow Vancouver style?

Media guys says Vancouver also showed high price increase st year with significant drop in sales volume and eventually ended up in falling prices.

and I responded:   Yes, I understand your concern. Many feel that this may spill over to the GTA marketplace. Nobody can predict the future. Our GTA marketplace has slowed slightly over the past few months but it's too early to tell if this is a seasonal slowdown or the beginning of an overall slowdown.   Our prices have not skyrocketed at the same pace as Vancouver over the past 5 or 10 years, so personally, I don't think our market will drop as it has in Vancouver.

and she responded:

Thanks Mark for the clarification. I agree no one can predict the future with 100% certainty.
I too believe sales drop may be seasonal based on the sales trends
2010 -1st half sales were up but 2nd half sales were down.
2011 1st 4 month sales were down but 2nd half was up
2012 First half sales were up but the 2nd half were slow.

and I responded:

  Yes, your analysis and observations are correct, but, as the Royal Bank always tells me when I read about their mutual funds performance, they say, "past results are no indication of future performance" so we must always exercise caution.....   and this is the unsolicited advice I offer you today, 'exercise caution" in our real estate market over the next few months......   All the best!   Mark

Tuesday, October 23, 2012

The price of real estate depends upon.....

This is an interesting article

interest rates and mortgages:

What happened in 2008?
After the 2007 inflation?

What happened in 1988-1996?
After the 1970s stagflation?

And what will happen in the future?

Interest rates will stay low FOREVER and EVER?

Live long enough and find out.

The article states: "with signs the real estate market could now be turning
a corner after years of strong growth" and this is true, our market has been
soft since about Labour Day with no reason to rebound between now and
December, this indicates a downturn in prices, it's coming

The Fed's have a bid problem on their hands, with low rates people are
borrowing and increasing their debt but if they increased the bank rate it
would cause panic - what to do?!

I don't feel we are at the precipice of a giant slide in prices, more of a
small adjustment, maybe 10% drop or so and then a leveling out

As long as there are jobs and people are working, the economy should
survive, otherwise.......

I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!

All the Best!


A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987
BUS 905-828-3434
FAX 905-828-2829 CELL 416-520-1577

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Thursday, October 04, 2012


this is the latest report from TREB on the sales and average prices for


TORONTO, October 3, 2012 - Greater Toronto Area (GTA) REALTORS(r) reported
5,879 transactions through the TorontoMLS system in September 2012. The
average selling price for these transactions was $503,662, representing an
increase of more than 8.5 per cent compared to last year.

The number of transactions was down by 21 per cent in comparison to
September 2011. However, it is important to note that there were two fewer
working days in September 2012 compared to September 2011. The majority of
transactions are entered on working days. On a per working day basis, sales
were down by 12.5 per cent year-over-year.

"While sales have been lower due to stricter mortgage lending guidelines, we
continue to see substantial competition between buyers. The months of
inventory trend remains low from a historic perspective, which explains the
strong price increases we are experiencing," said Toronto Real Estate Board
President Ann Hannah.

September average selling prices were up compared to last year for all major
home types. Price growth was strongest in the City of Toronto, including
condominium apartments with eight per cent year-over-year growth. All
benchmark home types included in the MLS(r) Home Price Index (MLS(r) HPI)
experienced year-over-year price increases, with substantially stronger
increases for low-rise home types.

"Barring a major change to the consensus economic outlook, home price growth
is expected to continue through 2013. Based on inventory levels, price
growth will be strongest for low-rise home types, including single-detached
and semi-detached houses and town homes," said TREB's Senior Manager of
Market Analysis, Jason Mercer.