"The Truth" about Flat-Fee Commissions in the GTA and Mississauga

Flat-Fee Commissions

I received the following email with questions about flat fee commissions and more and thought I would post the questions and my thoughts here on my blog.

Questions: I would like to ask you what you think of agents/brokers who do flat-fee listings. Do you show their homes in the same way as you show homes listed traditionally? Do you think agents boycott these homes in general? As home prices have increased, there has been concern that agents' commissions have increased higher than the rate of inflation and don't reflect the actual hours put into a transaction. What are your thoughts about this? Thanks so much for your time, Shelly

Hi Shelly,

Good questions!

I do not have a problem with flat fee commissions. As with every marketplace there is plenty of room for all types and levels of service and fees. Some companies compete on service and others need to compete on price to get their business. This is a reality of economics. I've noticed over my 19 years in the business that most of the low commission companies do not survive in the long term. There are some that have weathered the storm, but for the most part, it costs large dollars to run a real estate business and expenses are ever increasing.

Regarding showing flat-fee commission company listings, the law is that we must show all listings. Personally, I show any home to my buyer's, regardless of the listing company. Most brokers offer almost the same fee to the co-operating broker (the selling agent), so it does not matter to me which listings I show. I want my buyers to have all possible home buying options and ultimately they must be happy with their purchase.

I do not agree that commissions have risen higher than inflation, we are now getting less % overall (compared to the days of 6% and 7%) and it's extremely competitive for the listing side of the commission in my trading area. As you know, there are 2 sides to the commission, the listing broker side and the selling or co-operating broker side. Some agents are offering huge discounts on the listing broker side to obtain the listing so that once the listing sells, they can help their sellers buy their next home. Commission cutting has been around as long as I've been in the business, since 1987. So, when I say that I don't agree, I mean that after all expenses, taxes and fees and splitting our commissions with our broker, we are not really earning much more than anyone else who puts in a 50 to 60 hour work week. Problem is that agents tend to flaunt their wealth with "bling-bling" and people usually only remember the top flashy agents and forget that 5% of the agents do 95% of the business. The average wage of a realtor in Ontario, I believe is just over $30,000 per year. I could find the link to those stats if you like.

I love your comment, 'don't reflect the hours put into a transaction'. This is a common criticism of our industry, but again, I don't think it's realistic. When the market is 'on fire' and houses are selling in two or three days on the market, this makes up for the very slow times of the market. As well, we cannot convert 100% of the buyers and sellers that we deal with and there are many listings and buyers who do not create any income for us. Thus, as with all commission industries, the level of commission and pay is high for a sale to compensate for the zero commission sales that do not happen. This is a reality of economics. As with any sales position there is high risk and slow periods throughout the year. It's still exceptionally difficult to obtain listings and/or buyers in our marketplace and the competition with other agents is fierce. There are just over 24,000 agents who are members of TREB (Toronto Real Estate Board) and usually only 20,000 to 25,000 listings at any one time, not great odds of each agent having more than one listing. The truth is that only about 1/3 of those listings sell and historically there are about 75,000 sales per year on TREB, so if you do the math, it's not a great business for many agents.

I this helps a little and gives you some insight into what's really happening in our industry.

Mark

Read more about commissions

For more information please contact A. Mark Argentino

A. Mark Argentino Associate Broker, P.Eng.,
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
2691 Credit Valley Road, Suite 101, Mississauga, Ontario L5M 7A1

BUS 905-828-3434
FAX 905-828-2829
E-MAIL mark@mississauga4sale.com
Website: Mississauga4Sale.com

Mississauga and Toronto Real Estate Upcoming Public Open Houses

Open houses in the GTA and Mississauga

I've created a new page on my site that will assist people like you that are looking to find upcoming public open houses.

There are many sites in the GTA that post upcoming public open houses, but I have summarized the most useful and current site at this page. Mississauga and Toronto Real Estate Public Open Houses

For more information please contact A. Mark Argentino

A. Mark Argentino Associate Broker, P.Eng.,
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
2691 Credit Valley Road, Suite 101, Mississauga, Ontario L5M 7A1

BUS 905-828-3434
FAX 905-828-2829
E-MAIL mark@mississauga4sale.com
Website: Mississauga4Sale.com

November 2006 Mississauga Real Estate Market, Prices UP and Volume of Sales UP

TORONTO - Friday, November 3, 2006 --The Toronto Residential market put in another solid performance in October, with 6,876 homes changing hands through the TMLS system, TREB President Dorothy Mason announced today. "This is up about four per cent over September's 6,622 figure. And, though it has moderated slightly from October of 2005, we are still looking at an annual total of well over 80,000 homes transacted. This is a very healthy, active market."

Prices continued their upward trend in October, rising two per cent over September to $356,423. They were also up four per cent over the $342,450 recorded in October of 2005.

This was the news release that was issued by the Toronto Real Estate Board.

See the average prices graph and read more here

For more information please contact A. Mark Argentino

A. Mark Argentino Associate Broker, P.Eng.,
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
2691 Credit Valley Road, Suite 101, Mississauga, Ontario L5M 7A1

BUS 905-828-3434
FAX 905-828-2829
E-MAIL mark@mississauga4sale.com
Website: Mississauga4Sale.com

How to Create the Ultimate Home Theater in Canada

Creating the ultimate home theatre
(NC)-A growing number of Canadians are installing home theatre systems in their homes, however homeowners aren't always satisfied with the results. Some Canadians find themselves being bothered by unwanted noise while trying to enjoy their new home theatre.

"When creating a home theatre, homeowners need to consider more than the TV and speakers," says Mark LeBlanc, Insulation Expert, Owens Corning Canada. "To properly enjoy a home theatre, the room should be designed to control noise coming from other areas of the house. This can be achieved by installing acoustic wall systems."

In order to properly control noise in the home, it is important to understand the four essential principles of noise control: block, break, absorb and isolate.

Block - Drywall is the first line of defense against noise. It will help to block out unwanted sounds, and is particularly effective in blocking lower frequency, bass sounds.

Break - Flexible fasteners, such as resilient channels, act to detach the drywall from the wall studs so that sounds vibrations cannot pass directly through the wall structure.

Absorb - Installing specifically-designed acoustic insulation, such as Quietzone acoustic batts, into the wall cavity can significantly decrease the amount of noise transmitted between rooms.

Isolate - The effectiveness of an acoustic wall is limited if noise can simply travel through an open doorway. Using solid-core doors is important to control noise transfer inside the home.

When creating a home theatre room, homeowners should consider installing acoustic wall systems. To do this, start by installing QuietZone Acoustical Batts in interior walls between your home theatre and other rooms, as well as on ceilings between floors. If there are water pipes in the walls, consider wrapping them with insulation before installing batts to further reduce noise transmission. Then add resilient metal channels across the home theatre side of the wall studs and the ceiling joists. Next, fasten drywall to the metal channels. Caulk the drywall to the floor before putting on the baseboards.

By better understanding the basics of noise control, homeowners can truly create the ultimate home theatre.

For more information, call 1-800-GET-PINK or visit www.owenscorning.ca.

Credit: www.newscanada.com

For more information please contact A. Mark Argentino

A. Mark Argentino Associate Broker, P.Eng.,
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
2691 Credit Valley Road, Suite 101, Mississauga, Ontario L5M 7A1

BUS 905-828-3434
FAX 905-828-2829
E-MAIL mark@mississauga4sale.com
Website: Mississauga4Sale.com

Bank of Canada Rates - "mid-cycle" slowdown and Dow Jones hits 12,000 mark - comments

HIGHLIGHTS
The BoC leaves rates unchanged at 4.25%
Small cut in policy rates still in the cards
for 2007 despite rising core prices
Further evidence of U.S. mid-cycle slowdown
Dow Jones hits the 12,000 mark


Big week for Canadian monetary policy


There were a lot of new developments surrounding Canadian monetary policy this week. First, the Bank of Canada announced on Tuesday that it was maintaining the overnight rate at 4.25%. Since this decision was widely expected, it is the accompanying statement that caught financial markets’ attention. Notably, the Bank revised down its real GDP growth forecasts for the remainder of 2006 and 2007.


Everything else being equal, weaker economic growth would translate into less accumulation of slack in the economy, thereby increasing market expectations for eventual rate cuts. But, the Bank has also lowered its estimate of potential output growth – i.e. the growth in production the Canadian economy can achieve with existing labour, capital, and technology without accelerating inflation. Putting the two together, the Bank estimates that the economy is still operating slightly above capacity.

The downward revision to potential output growth was explained in more detail in the Monetary Policy Report (MPR) released two days later. In particular, the Bank now assumes weaker trend labour productivity growth – 1.5% per year instead of 1.75% – because of structural changes in the economy. Combined with growth of 1.25% in trend labour input implies potential output growth of 2.8%, an estimate that TD Economics agrees with. Back in October 2005, we warned about this risk. In a special report entitled “Key Issues Arising from the Bank of Canada’s MPR”, we argued that productivity trends could have crucial implications for the future path of monetary policy. In particular, we said that “the estimate of potential could adjust to actual developments fairly quickly and any failure of labour productivity to accelerate as anticipated could easily result in the Bank lowering its assessment of potential in 2007”. This risk has materialized, just a notch earlier than we anticipated.

As a result of both downward revisions to actual and potential output growth, the Bank expects the economy to run slightly above its capacity for the next two years. In such an environment, the Bank would not be inclined to alter monetary seetings. Certainly, Friday’s CPI inflation report for the month of September corroborates with the Bank’s neutral bias. Core prices rose by a greater-than-expected 0.5 per cent from the previous month, lifting the year-over-year tally to 2.3% – above the Bank’s target of 2%.
We still see modest cut in rates in early 2007

With September’s brisk increase in core prices, the odds are very high that the Bank will stay on the sidelines at the last policy meeting of the year on December 5th. Admittedly, the odds that the Bank keeps rates unchanged in the early stages of 2007 also increased a notch. Still, TD Economics sticks to its call of a modest reduction of 25 basis points in each of the first two quarters of 2007. Why? The answer lies in the fact that our base-case scenario has factored in weaker economic conditions than the Bank over the next few quarters. The Bank believes Canadian real GDP growth will start gaining ground in the last quarter of 2006, whereas we believe it will not happen until the second half of 2007 (see table on page 1). In this context, we believe a small cut of 50 basis points in policy rates would help ensure that the economic slowdown remains moderate.

Further evidence of a modest U.S. economic expansion

This week provided more evidence that the U.S. mid-cycle slowdown is far from over. Housing starts rose unexpectedly by 5.9% in September, but are still 18% lower than the same time last year. Furthermore, residential building permits fell by 6.3% in September to its lowest level since October 2001. On that basis, we believe that September’s rise in starts was a blip and that the cooling U.S. housing market has not hit the bottom yet. Look for weaker homebuilding activity down the road. September’s U.S. CPI report also provided evidence of moderation. First, the sharp drop in energy prices drove down headline inflation from 3.8% to 2.1%. But what matters more for the Fed is the third consecutive monthly increase of 0.2% in core prices. This figure is less worrisome in comparison of the March-June period, when core prices were rising at a brisker pace of 0.3% per month. The annualized pace of inflation during the July-September period now stands at 2.7%, a full percentage point lower than this summer. This development appears consistent with the overall capacity utilization rate, which slipped from to 81.9% in September from 82.5% in August.

September was not a good month for U.S. industrial production, which fell for the first time in 8 months by 0.6 per cent. Altogether, this string of economic indicators is consistent with our view that the U.S. mid-cycle slowdown is underway this fall, which will eventually push the Fed to cut fed funds rate by a full percentage point over the first half of 2007.

The Dow is on a roll this year

However, the big news of the week in U.S. financial markets was not the Fed’s intentions, but rather the performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average index. The Dow ended Thursday slightly above the 12,000 points mark for the first time ever (note, however, that the Dow pulled back below the 12,000 mark in early trading on Friday). The Dow has provided a 10-per-cent cumulative return on investment since the beginning of the year, fueled by rising corporate profits and falling energy prices. However, investors who have held U.S. equities in their portfolio for a long period of time may see things differently. Indeed, it took seven and a half years for the Dow to move up to 12,000 since it hit 11,000 for the first time in the summer 1999. Thereafter, the burst of the high tech bubble and the 2001 U.S. recession hurt investors’ holdings. This explains why the cumulative return of the Dow was a mere 9 per cent over the last seven and a half years. In comparison, it took only four years for the Dow to move up from 4,000 to 11,000 points in the second half of the 1990s – for a cumulative return of 175 per cent. Still, U.S. equities should remain part of a well-diversified portfolio over the long haul because of stronger growth potential in productivity and population gains relative to many other industrialized countries. On that front, it was just announced on Tuesday that the U.S. population surpassed the 300 million mark.

This article is courtesy of Paul Chadwick, TD-Canada Trust

For more information please contact A. Mark Argentino

A. Mark Argentino Associate Broker, P.Eng.,
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
2691 Credit Valley Road, Suite 101, Mississauga, Ontario L5M 7A1

BUS 905-828-3434
FAX 905-828-2829
E-MAIL mark@mississauga4sale.com
Website: Mississauga4Sale.com

TD - Canada Trust - Ramifications of the US housing market decline

THE DECLINE AND FALL OF THE U.S. HOUSING MARKET: WILL THE BROADER ECONOMY FOLLOW?

October 2, 2006

The U.S. housing sector directly contributed more than $2 trillion to the national economy in 2005 and accounted for one-quarter of real GDP growth. Don’t expect a repeat performance any time soon. Data over the past five months show that the housing market is in the midst of a correction. The supply of detached resale homes has hit a 13-year high, affordability has eroded to late-1980s levels, and all three major housing markets – new, existing and construction – have absorbed double-digit declines in activity relative to last year.

The question is not whether the housing market correction will dampen U.S. economic growth over the next year. It will. The cliffhanger is whether it can single-handedly tip the economy into a recession. Indeed, the current housing cycle is already mirroring trends leading into past recession cycles. So why would it be different this time?

To evaluate the risk of an economy-wide recession, we cannot look at the housing sector in isolation. Other factors also enter into the equation, such as interest rates, inflation, labour market conditions, inventory overhang and the overall health of Corporate America. These influences bear little resemblance to patterns seen in prior pre-recession cycles, and we believe this tips the scale in favour of an economic slowdown rather than a recession.

The importance of housing in the American economy

The real estate sector has been punching above its weight in the American economy since the housing boom gained traction in 2002. More and more jobs, incomes and consumption have become leveraged to the performance of the housing market over the past four years – leaving little doubt that a housing correction will have knock-on effects to the broader economy. In fact, housing-related indicators alone leave the impression that a recession is just around the corner.
There are three main ways in which the housing boom has weaved its way through the economy. There is the direct link of residential investment, which accounts for 5.5% of real economic activity, a share that has risen a full percentage point in just four years. This sector has consistently contributed about half a percentage point to real GDP growth since 2002, twice its historical norm. Over the next year, however, the opposite is expected to be true, with residential investment shaving half a percentage point from annual economic growth. On its own, this would be a barely audible hiccup in the economic expansion, but residential investment has been a heavyweight in influencing recent labour market conditions.

Construction and real estate jobs are to credit for one-fifth of all American job growth in the past four years. This is remarkably disproportionate to its size in the labour market. For instance, the construction industry accounts for less than 5 per cent of all jobs. Not surprising, regions that had the greatest gains in home prices during the boom also experienced the most robust demand for construction workers. New England can thank the construction sector for more than one-third of all job growth over the past four years (August 2002-August 2006). The respective shares in California and Nevada are similarly high at 28 and 24 per cent. A pull back in housing, therefore, presents a clear and present danger to employment, and hence incomes and consumption across America.

And the impact from housing doesn’t end there. The third and biggest influence has come through two arteries of consumption: direct housing-related purchases and the wealth effect. The former includes the likes of furniture, appliances and other expenditures related to household services and operations. These purchases accounted for just over 18 per cent of the real economy in 2005. Meanwhile, housing wealth effects have been fueled by the rapid appreciation in home prices coupled with record levels of refinancing and home equity withdrawals. Unfortunately, the peak in refinancing has already long passed and if current declining trends continue through this year, refinancing activity will have slumped over 60% from 2003. Meanwhile, cashed-out home equity is projected to fall by 40% in 2007 alone!

The significance of this should not be overlooked. In the past three years, we estimated that housing wealth effects accounted for, on average, 2 percentage points of the annual growth in real consumer spending each year. The U.S. is now facing a situation where the unwinding of housing wealth effects will drag consumption growth. The second quarter of 2006 presents some preliminary evidence that this process is already underway. According to our proxies for capital gains and cashed-out equity, quarterly declines in both marginally detracted from real consumption growth. Even so, the overall wealth effect continues to support spending growth because the biggest driver is real estate assets valued at nearly $17 trillion in inflation adjusted terms. But even here cracks are forming. This measure expanded by just half a per cent in the second quarter, marking the slowest pace since 1997. As overall wealth effects continue to reverse course, we estimate that it could shave at least a full percentage point from real GDP growth over the next 12 months.

How close is the U.S. to a recession?

With all these dire predictions, would there be an outright contraction in U.S. economic activity? There is significant risk of a recession in 2007 or early 2008. However, the most likely outcome remains a mid-cycle slowdown. Although a number of housing indicators are mirroring the path of past recession cycles, the data provide an incomplete picture and can often send false signals. Interest rates, inflation and employment are also material in shaping the economic landscape.

Starting with the housing market backdrop, the news is somewhat glum. There is a strong link between real estate assets and recessions. The annual growth rate in inflation adjusted real estate has contracted in three of the past four recessions. On average, asset growth hits a trough of -3% following several quarterly declines that either preceded or coincided with the start of the recession. Currently, this seems a long way off since real estate assets were still expanding by a healthy 7% annual clip in the second quarter. However, the slowdown in the quarterly growth rate is a red flag. In addition, the annual pace of growth for detached real home prices moved deep into negative territory (-5.3%) in August, which does not bode well for the wealth measure in the third quarter. But, readers should bear in mind that there are also instances when price growth dramatically slows or turns negative that does not coincide with recessions. The mid-1990s offers a perfect example of repeated false signals, though a mid-cycle slowdown did ensue.

Sharp double-digit declines in the annual growth of housing starts in August also put this indicator in bad company for either a recession or cyclical slowdown. But, the data is inconclusive on which one it would be because single-family housing starts contract steeply in both cases. The only distinguishing feature is that activity during a recession cycle remains in the red for a longer period of time. For this outcome, we’ll have to wait and see, but what we do know is that construction activity in the most recent quarter has already contracted to a greater extent than the initial backslide leading into an average recession cycle.

Another possible signpost that the U.S. is on the cusp of a recession is if purchases of big-ticket housing items begin to contract on a quarterly basis. Falling expenditures on items like furniture and household equipment tend to precede a recession by 1-to-3 quarters. This has yet to occur in the present economic cycle, but we would not be surprised if it did. However, the bigger economic determinant is if a contraction in spending for non-housing items follows in toe. When this occurs, a critical threshold of consumer confidence has been breached.

Consumers hold the key to economic expansion…

In past recession cycles, consumer spending was undermined by three critical variables: inflation, interest rates and unemployment. There is good news on all three fronts in the current economic cycle. The graph below shows that present inflation behaviour is more akin to periods of mid-cycle slowdowns than recessions. U.S. core inflation typically accelerated ahead of recessions and was at least double current levels. Because movements in inflation and interest rates are highly intertwined, acceleration in the former usually prompted the central bank to respond with higher interest rates – often causing monetary policy to overshoot to the point of choking off domestic demand. This is evident in the graph on the following page, where the real fed funds rate climbs, on average, about 2 percentage points over the course of four quarters preceding a recession. The current cycle has produced an equivalent amount of tightening, but it has been gradual by comparison, occurring over eight quarters. Equally important, the level of real interest rates remains a full 2 percentage points below peak pre-recession periods. So in both cases, interest rates appear to be only tapping on the brakes, rather than driving the economy to a full stop.

This may account for why household credit is still showing little sign of stress, even at this late stage in the monetary tightening cycle. There has been much made of recent up-ticks in foreclosures and delinquencies, especially in states that have a notorious reputation for the use of riskier debt products, such as California and Nevada. Yet, the national level of delinquency rates remains low. And, in the subprime market, California and Arizona still ranked as the lowest delinquency states in the U.S. even though both have a disproportionate amount of non-conventional mortgages. In the first quarter of 2006, negative amortization loans represented 9 per cent of new mortgages in the U.S. In Nevada and California, those respective shares were 22.5 per cent and 21 per cent.

With this in mind, we fully recognize that the high use of ‘exotic’ mortgages does present a near-term risk to the economic expansion. In 2005, nearly 40% of new mortgages were either negative amortization or interest-only products. What’s more, it is estimated that $1 trillion of adjustable rate mortgages will adjust in 2007, or about 8% of outstanding mortgage loans. However, once again we take comfort in the inflation-interest rate link. Without the shackles of high inflation in the current cycle, we believe the Fed will react quickly to an economic slowdown and will cut interest rates by 100 basis points in the first half of 2007. This should help alleviate the interest rate strain on some of the more vulnerable credit holders.

The labour market backdrop is the third factor supporting the outcome of a mid-cycle slowdown. The final scenario graph below has two useful insights. First, the current labour market looks to be paralleling the path of a cyclical slowdown, referring to the fact that there has not been a material deceleration in job growth that typically precedes a recession. Meanwhile, growth in real wages per employee has recently accelerated, which is opposite to pre-recession behaviour. Second, the amount of new jobs relative to total employment is much lower in the current cycle than either of the scenarios of a recession or mid-cycle slowdown. This is good news because less job buildup going into a slowdown provides some insulation against the risk of mass job layoffs.

This possibility is further enhanced when we consider that the job boom that typically takes place in post-recession periods did not occur after the 2001 recession. Rather, corporate restructuring scratched nearly 3 million jobs from payrolls between 2001 and 2003. And, in some sectors, employment restructuring has yet to cease. For instance, the manufacturing sector continues to shed jobs five years after the official end of the recession.

Current lean employment structures provide some reassurance that aggressive job cuts are not waiting in the wings. This is a vital component to any economic cycle, because mass layoffs cause a sudden interruption in household income that is highly destabilizing to an expansion. Total wages in the economy amount to over $4 trillion, which is more than five times the amount of mortgage equity withdrawal.

…but Corporate America is in driver’s seat

But, the security of job growth ultimately hinges on the response by Corporate America to an economic slowdown. Even here we find a number of key positive features in the present cycle. For one, the ratio of prices to unit labour costs is typically falling heading into a recession period. This is definitely not the case in the current cycle, plus the ratio is at a historical high reflecting the fact that businesses have successfully constrained unit labour costs to lift profits. Second, corporate liquidity and savings have never been better. If the U.S. economy was nearing a recession, growth in retained earnings would normally be slowing, but the opposite has occurred. Given that retained earnings are at a record level, firms should not find themselves in dire straights as demand growth tapers off, especially if the slowdown extends a short period of one year, as we predict. And, as we already mentioned, job restructuring occurred only three years ago, so there’s not much fat to cut off these bones.

The final corporate variable that provides comfort is the historically low inventory-to-sales (I/S) ratio. Inventory swings have proven to be highly disruptive during an economic downturn and can often hasten job layoffs. When consumer demand growth trails off, I/S ratios tend to rise, causing firms to aggressively liquidate on-hand stock. The Fed estimated that this inventory adjustment process accounted for, on average, one-quarter of the overall slowdown in real GDP growth during postwar recessions. This is quite a powerful influence from a sector that represents a mere 0.5 per cent of GDP.

In the current economic cycle, I/S ratios across all sectors – retail, wholesale and manufacturing – are already flirting with record lows. In fact, these ratios have been extremely lean since 2004, the start of the Fed tightening cycle. So, it’s quite possible that firms have long been bracing for an economic slowdown. Low I/S ratios relative to past norms should limit the severity of an economic downturn, while also mitigating some of the negative risks that naturally flow to the job market.

Conclusion

We are not blind to the obstacles faced by the U.S. economy, such as a negative savings rate and high debt service costs. If the consumer back finally breaks, look for preliminary signals to emerge in the form of steep contractions in housing-related expenditures and escalating debt defaults. But, we remind readers that there is no single variable that can push America into a recession. The health of the economy is dependent on a confluence of many factors. Although recent trends in the housing sector are closely paralleling events leading into past recessions, deteriorating wealth effects and falling home prices alone do not portend a recession. The environment for interest rates, inflation and corporate balance sheets bears no resemblance to past recessions. We believe these factors will dominate, preventing the mass job losses that would compromise income growth and the ability for households to meet debt obligations and future expenditures. So, to return to the question we posed in the introduction as to whether the housing correction will lead to an outright recession, the likely answer is “no”. The economic indicators are precisely in line with previous mid-cycle slowdowns, such that the U.S. economy is more likely to bump along the 2 per cent mark for a one-year period, than contract outright.

Article courtesy of TD Canada Trust, Paul Chadwick

For more information please contact A. Mark Argentino

A. Mark Argentino Associate Broker, P.Eng.,
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
2691 Credit Valley Road, Suite 101, Mississauga, Ontario L5M 7A1

BUS 905-828-3434
FAX 905-828-2829
E-MAIL mark@mississauga4sale.com
Website: Mississauga4Sale.com

Energy Efficient Homes are Important to Home Buyers

As costs rise, energy efficiency high on checklist of home buyer
JANE GADD of the Globe and Mail

The message of energy efficiency has got through to 90 per cent of home buyers in the Toronto and Ottawa areas, according to a survey released this week.

EnerQuality Corp., which oversees the federal Energy Star for New Homes program in Ontario, says an independent survey found that 9 out of 10 people buying single-family homes in those markets this year were looking for increased energy efficiency.

Their motivation was mostly financial -- more than six out of 10 gave energy bills as the main reason.

Being environmentally friendly was rated second -- 15 per cent said that that was their goal. The rest mentioned greater comfort or better resale value.

"I am not surprised to see that saving money is the No. 1 reason behind the growing demand for energy-efficient housing," said Corey McBurney, who heads EnerQuality in Ontario. "Builders have been telling us for some time that home buyers want to protect themselves against rising energy costs."

Four out of five new-home owners surveyed said that paying up front for better energy efficiency would be worth it.

The survey polled 1,830 new-home buyers in the Greater Toronto Area and Ottawa-Carleton this year.

Eighty-four per cent said energy efficiency was important to them, while 90 per cent said their next home would be an energy-efficient one.

Fifty per cent of respondents said the homes they bought were energy-efficient, and 89 per cent said builders should make energy efficiency standard.

Of those who said they'd bought an energy-efficient home, 89 per cent had bought an energy-efficient furnace. Other energy-efficient features were appliances (bought by 79 per cent), windows (66 per cent), lighting (54 per cent), increased insulation (31 per cent), airtight construction (30 per cent), and heat-recovery ventilators (11 per cent). This article appeared in the Globe and Mail, Sept 29, 2006


For more information please contact A. Mark Argentino

A. Mark Argentino Associate Broker, P.Eng.,
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
2691 Credit Valley Road, Suite 101, Mississauga, Ontario L5M 7A1

BUS 905-828-3434
FAX 905-828-2829
E-MAIL mark@mississauga4sale.com
Website: Mississauga4Sale.com

Your Retirement options improve when you own real estate

You have many options when it comes to retirement if you own real estate.

You can take the real estate proceeds to finance your retirement home living, your retirement vacations and your extended health care. You should have extra money left over to help your children and grand children too.

Investment properties can provide a steady income stream for many years of your retirement. Just imagine receiving $1000 or $1500 per month net after expenses of operating that investment townhouse that you purchased 18 years ago. This is a reality that only you can decide to make happen.

There are many other options open to you and I would be more than happy to discuss any of them with you.

For more information please contact A. Mark Argentino

A. Mark Argentino Associate Broker, P.Eng.,
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
2691 Credit Valley Road, Suite 101, Mississauga, Ontario L5M 7A1

BUS 905-828-3434
FAX 905-828-2829
E-MAIL mark@mississauga4sale.com
Website: Mississauga4Sale.com

RBC Royal Bank Report: "Economny Shifts Gears" September 2006

RBC Royal Bank "Leading indicator points to positive, but slower, growth ahead"
Latest month available: August 2006

Release date: September 20, 2006

Fixed income and currency market reaction
The leading economic indicator rose by 0.2% in August. July's increase was revised up to show a 0.3% increase, (previously reported as 0.2%).

Implications
The rise in the leading indicator confirms that economy continued to exhibit decent momentum in the third quarter with seven of the 10 components recording increases in August.

The biggest decline occurred in the housing index, which fell 2.5% as a result of a decline in housing starts and a levelling off of house sales. The slowing in housing market activity restrained growth in furniture and appliance sales to 0.5%, their slowest increase this year.

Manufacturing new orders rose 0.1%, while the ratio of shipments-to-inventories remained relatively flat. Money supply growth increased while the U.S. Conference Board leading indicator fell 0.1%.

Today's release points to positive, but modestly slower, growth ahead in line with our forecast that real GDP growth will moderate in the second half of the year after increasing at a 2.8% average pace in the first half.

Real GDP... Second-quarter real GDP surprises on downside
Release date: August 31, 2006

Fixed income and currency market reaction
Canadian second-quarter real GDP surprised on the downside, rising at a 2% annualized pace, below market expectations of a 2.3% annualized increase and well below the forecast put forward by the Bank of Canada in their latest Monetary Policy Report Update. First-quarter GDP growth was revised down to a 3.6% annualized pace from 3.8%. On a monthly basis, the Canadian economy remained stable in June. The lower-than-expected second-quarter read will prove negative for the Canadian dollar and positive for bonds.

Implications
While consumer spending slowed slightly in the quarter to 4.2% from the first quarter's 5.1% pace, it continued to support the economy. Expenditures on durable goods decelerated sharply.

Residential investment declined 5.2% after growing at a solid 12.7% in the first quarter due to mild winter weather. Businesses continued to invest in plant and equipment, although the pace of the investment was slower than that registered in the first. A large business inventory investment was also evident in the second quarter.

Exports fell 1.2%, continuing the decline seen in the first quarter as manufacturing output weakened further. Auto exports fell for a second consecutive quarter. Imports rebounded from a weak first quarter as the Canadian dollar appreciated. The strength of business investment accounted for much of the increase as imports of machinery and equipment grew.

Wages and salaries grew by 1.3% in the second quarter, while nominal profits edged ahead 0.4%.

The details of the report are not all bad news as most of the components contributed to growth in the quarter.

The major drag was net trade. However, most of the drag in net trade came from imports, which were largely supported by strong business investment. Hence, the overall picture is not completely one of doom-and-gloom.

The report is consistent with no change in interest rates at next week's Bank of Canada meeting and tilts the risk towards no more hikes for the remainder of the year.

Source: "Financial Markets Monthly", Economics Departnment, RBC Financial Group.
Read this report and more from the Royal Bank of Canada at this link: http://www.rbccm.com/0,,cid-10676_,00.html

For more information please contact A. Mark Argentino

A. Mark Argentino Associate Broker, P.Eng.,
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
2691 Credit Valley Road, Suite 101, Mississauga, Ontario L5M 7A1

BUS 905-828-3434
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Rising rates cool hot housing market across most of the country

Rising rates cool hot housing market
SHIRLEY WON of the Globe and Mail

Canada's buoyant housing market continued to cool off last month as sales fell 6.4 per cent in the wake of rising home prices and higher mortgage rates.

It was the third consecutive month of year-over-year sales declines, although the average home price surged 11.6 per cent to $292,989, according to a report released yesterday by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).

"We have seen some cooling in Central and Atlantic Canada, but the housing market out West has been delivering extremely strong, and quite dramatic, price gains," said Toronto-Dominion Bank economist Craig Alexander.

"Calgary home prices were up 50 per cent in August, and that is unbelievable."

Seasonally adjusted, home sales in Canada's major markets fell to 27,657 units in August, as new listings rose 2.8 per cent to 47,117.

"The average price growth will slow down" as new listings increase, even in the stronger markets, and home sales will continue weakening, Mr. Craig predicted in an interview. "The current 11.6 per cent [price increase] is not sustainable."

Calgary, whose economy is driven by the booming oil patch, saw a 9.8-per-cent drop in home sales in August, while new listings jumped 29 per cent to 4,271. "More properties are coming onto the market, and this is why we think that home price growth will slow," he said.

Edmonton marched to a different beat last month with sales rising 7.5 per cent as the average home price jumped 38 per cent.

In Toronto, home sales fell 6.7 per cent in August as the average price rose 4.6 per cent. In Vancouver, sales fell 18.6 per cent while the average price rose 18.3 per cent.

But the Canadian housing market is not poised to head in the same direction as the deteriorating U.S. housing market that has been fuelled by speculators, Mr. Craig said. "I don't think there are the same sort of risks of a major housing correction."

CREA economist Gregory Klump expects the housing market to continue to slow for the rest of this year and in 2007, while prices keep rising -- albeit at a slower pace.

"We are on a path that is trending towards more normal levels" since monthly sales peaked in August, 2005, Mr. Klump said. That's when 29,550 homes were sold. (A normal level of housing activity is defined as monthly sales of 18,000 to 22,000 units.)

The market continues to be affected by rising interest rates and higher mortgage-carrying costs resulting from increased home prices, Mr. Klump said.

On a year-to-date basis, home sales are still up 1.4 per cent from a year ago because of strong activity at the beginning of the year.


For more information please contact A. Mark Argentino

A. Mark Argentino Associate Broker, P.Eng.,
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
2691 Credit Valley Road, Suite 101, Mississauga, Ontario L5M 7A1

BUS 905-828-3434
FAX 905-828-2829
E-MAIL mark@mississauga4sale.com
Website: Mississauga4Sale.com