Monday, April 16, 2007

FORECAST - Canada’s economy set for stronger growth

Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) Average Prices and Graph Canada’s economy set for stronger growth - states RBC

Canada’s economy softened in 2006 but is set for a stronger performance — returning to its trend growth rate on a quarterly basis in 2007 and then bouncing up to a 3% real rate in 2008.

Tight labour markets + solid balance sheets = strong consumer spending ahead.

The federal government's budget was mildly stimulative and will boost growth by about 0.5 percentage points.

Businesses are in the middle of an investment cycle and are investing in new technologies and boosting capacity.

Inflation remains benign and on track to meet the Bank of Canada’s 2% target in the medium-term.

The Bank of Canada will hold the policy rate steady in 2007, but longer-term rates will rise in the second half of the year in line with U.S. Treasury yields. Rate hikes are likely in 2008. Courtesy of RBC financial

Current interest rates

For more information please contact A. Mark Argentino

A. Mark Argentino, Broker, P.Eng.,
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc., Brokerage
2691 Credit Valley Road, Suite 101, Mississauga, Ontario L5M 7A1

BUS. 905-828-3434
FAX. 905-828-2829
E-MAIL: mark@mississauga4sale.com
Website: Mississauga4Sale.com

Economy's upward momentum fades a bit - RBC comments

Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) Average Prices and Graph RBC comments: Economy's upward momentum fades a bit

The economy’s strong upward momentum in late 2006 faded a bit in early 2007 — pulling back to 0.1% in January from December’s robust 0.4% pace. However, output was still running at a 2.1% annualized rate in January and the three-month running rate clocked in at a 2.4% annualized pace, a solid pick-up from the sub-2% pace recorded in the previous seven months.

The economy churned out another 54,900 jobs in March, building on the blockbuster 88,900 gain in January and 14,200 in February. This was the strongest quarterly increase in job growth since 2002. Full-time jobs rose 30,500 while part-time employment increased by 24,500.

Retail sales declined 0.2% in January entirely due to weakness in the auto sector. Excluding autos, retail sales were firmer, rising 0.3%. There were widespread gains in all other sectors and eight of 10 provinces had sales gains.

Housing starts rebounded in March at a 210,900 annual rate from the 196,000 annualized pace in February. Starts averaged a 218,500 unit pace in the first quarter, slower than the 222,200 average rate in the fourth and 8.8% lower than in the first quarter of 2006, suggesting that residential construction will be a mild drag on overall economic growth in the first quarter.

The merchandise trade surplus narrowed to C$4.8 billion in February. Exports contracted 2.1%, reflecting the impact of the rail strike on shipments, while imports rose 0.3% following January's 2% decline. Real exports were running at a 3.1% annualized rate in January-February, while real imports contracted at a 2.1% annualized rate. As a result, the trade sector will still support first-quarter economic growth, although at a more modest rate than the 2.2 percentage-point boost in the fourth quarter.

The all-items inflation index rose 0.7% on a monthly basis in February, the biggest jump since a Katrina-related spike in September 2005. The Bank of Canada’s core rate reached 2.4% year-over-year, which could prove worrisome for policymakers.

Courtesy of RBC financial

More information about our real estate marketplace

For more information please contact A. Mark Argentino

A. Mark Argentino, Broker, P.Eng.,
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc., Brokerage
2691 Credit Valley Road, Suite 101, Mississauga, Ontario L5M 7A1

BUS. 905-828-3434
FAX. 905-828-2829
E-MAIL: mark@mississauga4sale.com
Website: Mississauga4Sale.com

Friday, April 13, 2007

Did the bottom fall out? Overvalued Canadian market or just a matter of time before we follow the US?

I've been reading articles recently about the fact that our real estate market prices have cooled. Will the souring US markets eventually affect our markets here in Canada? Many think this may be the case. Or could this be due to a one month (March) price drop?

This person below seems to think our market prices will fall in the future because we are influenced so much by what happens in the US. Nobody knows for sure, but if the press continues to publish articles like this our markets may follow their lead!

All the best,
Mark


Prepare for lower real estate prices
No guarantee that U.S. meltdown won't spread here

It's hard to find experts in Canada who are concerned that the real estate chaos swirling around next door could hop the border and rattle the housing market here. Well, not yet anyway.

Those who believe the Canadian market is on solid ground will find evidence to support their views when they get a look at housing starts for March (released this morning) and the new housing price index for February (tomorrow). Both are expected to show that Canada's housing market is holding steady amid the downturn to the south.

But if you're the sort of investor who can't help but wonder if Canada must eventually follow the U.S. lead -- a natural instinct given that Canada follows on so many other issues -- you may want to skip the Canadian figures.

Instead, head straight for the words of U.S. central bankers and get their take on housing: The worse it is in the United States, the more reason to worry about the situation here.

This afternoon, the U.S. Federal Reserve releases the minutes from the last Federal Open Markets Committee, on March 21. At that meeting, the committee left short-term interest rates unchanged, but said in its statement that "the adjustment in the housing sector is ongoing."

That is likely code for "quite frankly, the housing sector scares us" -- and the minutes will say more about it.

They have good reason to be scared. In the United States, home prices are tumbling, foreclosures are rising and few are confident the downturn has hit bottom yet. It's a rough time to contemplate buying a home.

Just as worrying, tightening credit conditions and the fact that current homeowners can no longer count on an appreciating market could wreck consumer confidence, which can hit economic growth.

Most Canadians are fully aware of our neighbour's problems. However, the prevailing wisdom is that real estate is a local market and it all boils down to the ''location, location location'' mantra, which should protect us from any sort of copycat debacle.

"Can we say that there are ominous parallels between what is happening in the U.S. and what will happen in Canada? I doubt it," said Bart Melek, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets. "It is a fundamentally different market. The structure is different."

U.S. consumers had to ride an upswing in interest rates from 1% in 2003 to 5.25% today, a much more volatile ride than that experienced by Canadian consumers.

At the same time, U.S. loan requirements -- which included 0% downpayments in some cases -- were far looser. And lastly, the Canadian economy is in better shape.

But there's at least one important factor Canada shares with the United States: overvaluation. House prices here have risen to a point where BCA Research believes they are 28% overvalued, based on comparisons with gross domestic product and competing assets, just as house prices were once widely believed to be overvalued in the United States.

With U.S. prices now coming down, it's not hard to envision a similar price-chop here. Few see it now, but that's the best time to prepare yourself. From National Post article dberman@nationalpost.com David Berman, Financial Post

See recent market trends in the GTA


Toronto Real Estate Board Average Prices and Graph

For more information please contact A. Mark Argentino

A. Mark Argentino, Broker, P.Eng.,
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc., Brokerage
2691 Credit Valley Road, Suite 101, Mississauga, Ontario L5M 7A1

BUS. 905-828-3434
FAX. 905-828-2829
E-MAIL: mark@mississauga4sale.com
Website: Mississauga4Sale.com

Thursday, April 12, 2007

Power of Sale Properties - Are they the 'great deal' that you think?



Power of Sale Properties - Are they the 'great deal' that you think?

I received an email with some questions about Power of Sale Properties and thought I would post the questions and answers here.

Hi Mark,

... you sent an email to me with all the power of sale properties. When these homes are sold during times of distress, I understood that they would be considerably cheaper than market price. Is that so?

I also want to know if the price that is listed is the “distress” sale price or the market asking price under normal circumstances. Thanks.

Best regards,
D. VD.


Mark's answers and comments:

Good questions.

The short answer on the 'considerably cheaper than market price' is usually not. In fact power of sale properties are infrequently "the great deal" that people read about or expect.

In Ontario these Power of Sale (POS) properties must be marketed at or near fair market value for similar properties in the area for at least the first month. The reason is that the previous owner can go after the bank if they feel the bank undersold the property. Thus the banks are very careful to try and sell the properties at fair market value, at least in the first 30-60 days it's on the market.

Incidentally, I've read that Ontario is the only province that puts POS properties on the MLS listing system. This may be why POS properties are superior opportunities in other provinces. Power of sales in other areas of Canada or the US 'sound' like much better opportunities, but I am not positive on this fact.

One of the difficulties of obtaining any type of a 'great deal' in our trading area (Toronto, GTA, Mississauga Niagara Falls to Barrie to Oshawa) is that so many people have instant access to mls data that it's rare these days to see a property sell for a large amount under market value. There are just too many buyers for every possible area of the GTA that seldom does a 'cheap' property go un-noticed.

I hope this helps you understand one side of the POS equation.

All the best!
Mark

Read more questions and answers regarding Power of Sale and Bank Sales


Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) Average Prices and Graph

For more information please contact A. Mark Argentino

A. Mark Argentino, Broker, P.Eng.,
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc., Brokerage
2691 Credit Valley Road, Suite 101, Mississauga, Ontario L5M 7A1

BUS. 905-828-3434
FAX. 905-828-2829
E-MAIL: mark@mississauga4sale.com
Website: Mississauga4Sale.com

Wednesday, April 11, 2007

Royal Bank Report - Fed shifts to neutral policy stance, almost


Royal Bank report - The Federal Govenment shifts to neutral policy stance - or almost

The Fed shifted to a neutral policy stance in mid-March but is keeping the focus on the upside risks to the inflation outlook.



  • Economic numbers have been mixed and, on balance, point to another sub-par quarter for U.S. economic growth.

  • Markets are focussing on the risks associated with the repricing of the housing and mortgage markets and are priced for a lower Fed funds rate.

  • The core inflation rate remains elevated, giving little room for a near-term policy rate reduction.
    However, once the core inflation rate heads lower, the Fed will be in a position to tweak the policy rate down.

  • Interest rates will be range-bound during the near-term, but stronger second-half growth will see some of the froth come off the bond market.

    Source: "Financial Markets Monthly", Economics Departnment, RBC Financial Group.

    Read more about mortage interest rates
    Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) Average Prices and Graph

    For more information please contact A. Mark Argentino

    A. Mark Argentino, Broker, P.Eng.,
    Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
    RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc., Brokerage
    2691 Credit Valley Road, Suite 101, Mississauga, Ontario L5M 7A1

    BUS. 905-828-3434
    FAX. 905-828-2829
    E-MAIL: mark@mississauga4sale.com
    Website: Mississauga4Sale.com

Monday, April 09, 2007

Buying a house for your child who is attending University or College


This Article covers some of the considerations when Buying a house for your child who may be attending University or College - from bankrate.com

We've all seen a typical student house: Canadian flag in the window, beer bottles on the lawn from last week's -- or last month's -- party and broken windows here and there.

But that image wasn't a concern for Debbie Smith when she and her husband bought a house for their son to live in, while he attended university. "What surprises me is the sense of pride they have where they live -- it's clean, and they even have a schedule to clean the bathroom," says Smith, whose son, Josh, is in his fourth year of agriculture business at Ontario's University of Guelph.

Investing in a second house hasn't produced a huge surplus for the Smiths, but they always planned to help Josh pay for his housing while at school. And this way, he has a little extra cash from the rent his roommates pay to put toward his groceries. Rent from the five tenants covers the mortgage and, in a few years, the Smiths's younger son will also have a place to live during his studies, if he chooses.

Everything has worked out pretty well, says Smith, and she'd recommend it to parents of soon-to-be-students, but there are a few considerations. Not all kids are as responsible as Josh and not all tenants clean bathrooms. If you plan on buying a house for the student in your family, read on to find out what is involved.

Where and what to buy
When trying to figure out what type of property to buy, a townhouse is a good bet. "For the amount of space, with a finished basement, the price and number of rooms, townhouses are always popular," Choose one that has potential to increase in value, so when you sell it, you can help your child pay off any debts he might have incurred during his time at school.

Location is another important factor. Many parents try to buy somewhere close to the school. But depending on the neighbourhood, that might be quite pricey. At the University of Western Ontario, in London, for example, the homes close to campus are older and more expensive than townhouses further away from school.

In people's experience, parents and students are willing to buy outside of the immediate campus area provided they are on a major public transit route and have amenities such as grocery stores close by. So, it's always a good idea to check out outlying neighbourhoods, not just what's within walking distance to campus.

Finding good roommates is key
Smith only advises buying a house if your child is responsible. In his house, Josh isn't responsible for collecting rent cheques, but he does collect each roommate's portion of the utilities. "I can't say he hasn't felt pressure sometimes when he can't get utilities from such and such a kid," she admits, but for the most part, he's kept up his part of the bargain.

She also suggests having your child help find dependable roommates. Josh initially screened the would-be housemates and then passed them over to his parents for a second meeting. The same tenants have been there for the past three years, and it's a good mix of three groups of friends. Smith warns parents to pick wisely: "I recommend not having one group of friends. A couple of pairs works out best, otherwise it will become a party household."

The best scenario is always to try have a family member live in the house. Whether it's a niece, son or daughter, you know someone is there, watching out for your investment. "If you're an absentee landlord, things can get in bad shape," says Irmler. "In general, family members have a good reason to keep the place in good shape."

Mortgage matters
From a financial perspective, having a family member live in the house can also save you from having to make a huge down payment on the mortgage, says Irmler. In general, if there are no family members living in the house, the banks want more security up front. Irmler also sees many couples use the equity in their own home as a buffer on the second mortgage.

Some, but not many, parents will also place the house in the child's name. To do that, the child must qualify for the mortgage on her own. It can be a tricky situation because if there is a default on the mortgage, it lands on the child. "There's a potential negative impact on the child's credit rating in the most important time in their life,"

But, if the child can handle it, and she is able to collect rent every month without too much difficulty, it could help out her credit rating in the future to have a house in their name.

Because the house generates rental income, it will be taxed. If the property is in the child's name, the tax rate will be lower because students tend to be in lower tax brackets than their parents. But most parents put the house in their own name, if for no other reason, to be able to sell the house immediately after their kids graduate.

Also keep in mind that, as with any second property, you must pay capital gains tax on it when you decide to sell.

Before you sell
If, after a degree or two, the keg parties and wild nights have taken their toll on the condition of the house, you might not make any money when it comes time to sell. Even if the house hasn't been damaged and simply lacks ambience or decorating style, you still might get less than the original price.

"If a young couple with a child have decorated and fixed up [an older home], it will go faster than the one-room with a mattress on the floor," says Irmler. She says owners usually go in after the roommates have left to spiff up the house before putting it on the market. She suggests removing the carpet, freshening up the paint and adding a few flowers outside to finish it off.


Mark's comments:

This is a very interesting article and probably applies to many of my clients with children nearing the university years. There are many incentives from a tax point of view in purchasing an investment property for your child and other students to live in during university and possibly beyond. Please take into consideration that you may have RESP's or other education funds that you may be drawing on and this will affect your child's income level and tax consequences. Your child will likely work during the summer holidays and it's easy for a student to earn over $10,000 in 4 months, thus this will eliminate their basic personal exemption, let alone any rental income.

There are many other considerations when buying a property for your child while they are at school, please don't hesitate to contact me with any questions you may have.

Toronto Real Estate Board Average Prices and Graph Investment Property Purchase Considerations

For more information please contact A. Mark Argentino

A. Mark Argentino, Broker, P.Eng.,
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc., Brokerage
2691 Credit Valley Road, Suite 101, Mississauga, Ontario L5M 7A1

BUS. 905-828-3434
FAX. 905-828-2829
E-MAIL: mark@mississauga4sale.com
Website: Mississauga4Sale.com


Sunday, April 08, 2007

Do Canadian Realtors care about their cities and towns?


Canadian REALTORS(R) care about their communities


OTTAWA, /CNW Telbec/ - REALTORS(R) are actively working to improve the quality of life of Canadians who live and work in their communities, and this was a key theme of the 2007 conference weekend of The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).

More than 500 REALTORS(R) and real estate Board and Association staff from across Canada converged on Ottawa for CREA's annual conference weekend, which was held from March 24th to 27th.

The Canadian REALTORS Care(TM) Foundation was officially launched on March 24th. It will coordinate the collection, administration and disbursement of charitable donations on behalf of REALTORS(R) across Canada. The Foundation will also promote the charitable initiatives undertaken by Boards, Associations and individual REALTORS(R) in all provinces.

In the 2007 membership survey conducted for The Canadian Real Estate Association, 66 per cent of Canadian REALTORS(R) said they were active volunteers in their communities. "REALTORS(R) are involved in the community they serve," says Ann Bosley, who became the 60th President of The Canadian Real Estate Association on the weekend. She was instrumental in the creation of the Canadian REALTORS Care(TM) Foundation and served as its first
President.

"REALTORS(R) not only care about where people live, but how they live as well," said President Bosley. "Our REALTOR(R) members should be acknowledged for their tremendous contributions to our communities."

CREA also announced it is the platinum sponsor of a national conference on aboriginal housing that is being organized by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation and Habitat for Humanity Canada. The conference will be held in Victoria in October 2007.

This continued commitment to the improvement of aboriginal housing in Canada by Canadian REALTORS(R) was acknowledged by the Honorable Monte Solberg, the federal minister responsible for Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation. In a convention speech March 27th, Minister Solberg said Canadian REALTORS(R) "have been central in promoting the housing needs of aboriginal Canadians."

Last year the Association developed a major case study on aboriginal housing in Canada as part of its participation in the International Housing Coalition. The study was presented at the World Urban Forum 3 in June 2006.

At the Annual General Meeting of The Canadian Real Estate Association, members also ratified Interpretations clarify how MLS(R) Rules are to be applied across Canada. "The Interpretations do not change any rules, but they will help protect the MLS(R) system and trade marks ensuring that Canadian consumers can continue to rely on the integrity of the MLS(R) system" CREA President Ann Bosley said.

The MLS(R), or Multiple Listing Service(R) trade marks, are owned by The Canadian Real Estate Association, and is licensed to local real estate Boards and Associations operating a local data listing system. The MLS(R) trade mark stands for a co-operative marketing service, comparable to a seal of approval regarding quality of service and information for consumers.

About The Canadian Real Estate Association

The Canadian Real Estate Association is one of Canada's largest single-industry trade Associations, and represents more than 88,000 REALTORS(R) across Canada. CREA's primary mission is to represent its members at the federal level of government and to monitor national legislation affecting or impacting the real estate industry. CREA also works to defend the public's right to own and enjoy property.

Read more about CREA


Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) Average Prices and Graph

For more information please contact A. Mark Argentino

A. Mark Argentino, Broker, P.Eng.,
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc., Brokerage
2691 Credit Valley Road, Suite 101, Mississauga, Ontario L5M 7A1

BUS. 905-828-3434
FAX. 905-828-2829
E-MAIL: mark@mississauga4sale.com
Website: Mississauga4Sale.com

Saturday, April 07, 2007

Common Income Tax mistakes and write-offs


Watch out for these common income tax mistakes that people make

With our hefty tax code, it's almost impossible to keep track of all the deductions available to Canadian taxpayers. So it's not surprising that many people miss out and end up paying too much tax.

According to one expert, even those who hire professionals to complete their returns aren't immune.

"So much is riding on the information you provide," says Evelyn Jacks, president of Knowledge Bureau Inc., and author of numerous books about tax return preparation.

"To get the best results, you have to stay informed. If you don't know what information to give, you won't get all the deductions."

With Jacks' help, we've prepared a list of easy-to-overlook tax deductions and reduction strategies to help you complete this year's return and to prepare for next year's.

1) Write off your safety deposit box
Safety deposit boxes are considered part of the carrying charge of holding securities and are deductible from the revenue earned on those securities. According to Jacks, this deduction, though relatively small, can add up over the course of several years.

The Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) lets you amend prior years' tax returns. If you have overlooked deductions in the past but have kept the receipts, it may pay to file an amendment.


2) Carry forward RRSP contributions
Although the vast majority of people take the deduction for their RRSP contribution as soon as they can, it may pay to wait, as the CRA lets you carry forward your RRSP deduction.

If you think you will be in a higher tax bracket in the coming years, you might consider taking the deduction later when it may have a great impact on reducing your taxes.

3) Get a GST refund on union dues
Although most people know union dues are tax deductible, the GST paid on those dues qualifies as a direct tax credit, which means you should get all of it back.

4) Write off your moving expenses
You can deduct moving expenses if you are transferred or if you move to take a new job. But according to Jacks, you should still hang on to your receipts even if you don't find a job right away.

Those deductions will still be valid when you begin to generate employment or self-employment income.

5) Borrow to invest, not to buy a home
A huge portion of typical household debt is comprised of mortgage payments. But many families that owe money on their homes also own investments or businesses. If they do, they are missing out on a big potential tax break.

Because mortgage interest payments are not tax deductible in Canada, as they are in the U.S., a far better strategy is to borrow money against your investments instead of your house. Then your interest payments will be deductible against revenue you earn from those investments.

6) Track all business expenses
Although most small- and medium-sized businesses have good internal controls in place to track their spending and expenses, most self-employed individuals do not. Self-employed individuals should keep all their work-related receipts.

Seemingly minor expenses such as parking fees, meal expenses, (when the object of your meeting is to discuss business) or office supplies add up when accumulated over the course of the year.

7) Split income with your spouse
In many households, one spouse earns more than the other and is consequently taxed at a higher marginal rate. In these cases it pays to transfer income to the lower wage-earner whenever feasible.

There are numerous strategies for doing so, but the rules are complex. Your accountant should be able to help.

8) Contribute to a spousal RRSP
Spousal RRSPs are an excellent way to split retirement income. In fact, you can contribute any part of your regular allowable RRSP contribution to your spouse's plan, even if he or she has already made a contribution that year.

9) Balance capital gains and losses
When you sell an investment that has increased in value, whether it is a stock or bond, you will likely have to pay tax on the accumulated capital gain.

Take this opportunity to sell any money-losing investments you may have, and apply the capital gain against the capital loss that you are taking. You may be able to avoid some, or possibly all, of the tax owing.

10) Keep up to date
It is unrealistic for most Canadians to become tax experts, but that doesn't mean you should play the helpless puppy. If you don't understand something about you taxes, find the answer.

Read more about taxes and the benefits of real estate home ownership
Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) Average Prices and Graph

For more information please contact A. Mark Argentino

A. Mark Argentino, Broker, P.Eng.,
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc., Brokerage
2691 Credit Valley Road, Suite 101, Mississauga, Ontario L5M 7A1

BUS. 905-828-3434
FAX. 905-828-2829
E-MAIL: mark@mississauga4sale.com
Website: Mississauga4Sale.com

Friday, April 06, 2007

Strong Start to Spring Real Estate Market in the GTA


Strong start to GTA real estate spring market


April 4, 2007 -- Strong resale housing activity in March got the spring market off to a healthy start, Toronto Real Estate Board President Dorothy Mason announced today. A total of 8,518 transactions took place in the month, nearly on par with the 8,707 sales reported last March.

“The market is in great shape, and we’re seeing very strong results on a consistent basis,” Mrs. Mason said. “So far 2007 is slightly ahead of last year’s sales pace, and we’re right on track for another solid year.”

In Scarborough’s West Hill neighbourhood (E10), strong sales of detached homes led to an overall sales increase of 27 per cent compared to March 2006.

Etobicoke’s Mimico / New Toronto neighbourhood (W06) saw transactions increase by 45 per cent compared to last March, fueled by strong detached home and condo apartment activity.

A jump in condominium activity in North York Centre (C14) helped overall sales to a 14 per cent increase compared to March of a year ago.

Overall sales in Thornhill (N02) increased by 16 per cent compared to last March, led by detached home sales.

“The GTA continues to have strong employment numbers and a healthy economy,” Mrs. Mason added.

“Housing activity is solid and prices are steadily on the rise, so it remains an excellent time to be in the market.”

Read more about the real estate market and see prices

Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) Average Prices and Graph

For more information please contact A. Mark Argentino

A. Mark Argentino, Broker, P.Eng.,
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc., Brokerage
2691 Credit Valley Road, Suite 101, Mississauga, Ontario L5M 7A1

BUS. 905-828-3434
FAX. 905-828-2829
E-MAIL: mark@mississauga4sale.com
Website: Mississauga4Sale.com

Thursday, April 05, 2007

Mortgage Interest rates may be falling - good news if you have gone short!


Mortage Interest Rates expected to Fall
Some of the so called "Experts" are now saying that mortgage rates will fall this year!

Many experts contend mortgage interest rates, still near their historic lows, will fall as much as 1% within the next year. Mortgage rates are generally tied to bond market yields which, in turn, are tied to the overnight lending rates that central banks such as the Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve charge their best clients, such as major banks.

"The single most important thing ... is the U.S. short-term interest rate, determined by the Federal Reserve," says Brad Willock, senior portfolio manager with RBC Asset Management Inc.

Central bank rates in North America were near 20% in the early 1980s, then fell in the wake of terrorist attacks in 2001, to 1% in the United States and 2% in Canada. Overnight rates crept up until June, 2006, remaining on hold since then at 5.25% in the United States and 4.25% in Canada.

Financial institutions, which often try to anticipate central bank moves, reduced long-term mortgage rates slightly in recent weeks, putting fixed rates around 6.5% for terms from six months to five years, and variable rates around 6%. In its March meeting, the Federal Reserve kept its rate unchanged at 5.25%, sending out a mixed message that inflation isn't a big concern but a recession is possible.

"The unemployment rate in the U.S. is at a 30-year low, around 4.5%, and the U.S. central bank won't cut rates when it's so easy to get a job," Mr. Willock says. "But right now it appears to us, given inflation and the economy, that this rate shouldn't be this high much longer. We anticipate the rate will fall in May, June or July, down a point or so over the next year or 18 months."

Benjamin Tal, senior economist with CIBC World Markets, agrees. "We see relatively settled mortgage rates over the next few months with the potential of actually lower short-term rates, given the slowing of the U.S. and Canadian [economies]. Longer term, we believe interest rates will remain relatively low and the next peak will be lower than the previous peak."

Nick Majendie, chief portfolio manager with Canaccord Capital, also sees rates falling. "We think the economy is weakening quite rapidly and could even be close to a recession as we speak. The key reason is that the U.S. is already in recession in the housing and auto sectors. You haven't seen the bottom yet, in our view.

"I think there will be enough evidence of economic weakness by the middle of the year that it will give them the cover to reduce rates. The Fed fund rate is 5.25%. I see it staying at 5.25% until the middle of the year, then the Fed reducing that rate by 1% through to March of '08. The cost of labour has come down globally, but as China and India get more middle class, their wages will go up and that will put upwards pressure on inflation globally."

Aron Gampel, deputy chief economist with Scotiabank, feels rates will fall a bit but could spike at the hint of bad news.

"Our view is that interest rates are going to continue to move lower, probably half a percentage point, potentially even more, between now and the third quarter or year-end, when they bottom," Mr. Gampel says. "We've got the Bank of Canada easing twice, once in the third quarter and once in the fourth quarter. If you're looking at mortgage rates, the balance is shifting to slightly lower and, at worst, they will stay the same. But these markets can shift on a dime and there are a lot of risk factors out there -- a sharply weaker U.S. dollar, which could occur, could force interest rates up and limit how much rate decline you get in long-term mortgage rates."

Read more about Current Mortage Interest Rates
Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) Average Prices and Graph


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A. Mark Argentino, Broker, P.Eng.,
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