Monday, October 15, 2007

Canada's dollar rises through parity


Canada's dollar rises through parity


Firm commodity prices combined with a sharp narrowing in the spread between short-term Canada-U.S. interest rates supported the Canadian dollar's rise through the third quarter.


In fact, the loonie traded through parity in September for the first time in more than 30 years in the wake of the Fed's aggressive 50 basis-point cut in Fed funds on September 18.


An expected further cut in Fed funds in the fourth quarter of 2007 will sustain the loonie above parity at an average of US$1.03/C$. However, as financial markets become persuaded that no further Fed easing is likely in 2008 and that its next move will be to raise Fed funds, the Canadian dollar will start to reverse these gains. We forecast that the currency will end 2008 at US$0.94/C$, which would represent a 9.2% depreciation compared to year-ago levels. Article from RBC Finance


Search the MLS or read more about Interest Rates, Power of Sale Properties, Price Trends and more at my website. Homes for Sale


Thank you for reading my blog and if there is anything else I can help you with please don't hesitate to contact me,


Mark



A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate


Thinking of Selling? Best Mortgage Rates Current Home Prices Search MLS
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.

Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987

( BUS 905-828-3434
2
FAX 905-828-2829 ÈCELL 416-520-1577
E-MAIL : mark@mississauga4sale.com
8 Website : Mississauga4Sale.com



Sunday, October 14, 2007

How Much Is Your Home Really Worth?



"The true market value of a home is what a buyer is willing and able to pay for it."

Setting a sales price for a home is a delicate balance. Price too high and the home won't sell; too low and it won't sell for what it's worth. Of course, the sales price should be based on fair market value--what a knowledgeable buyer would pay and an informed seller would accept.

A home's value has a lot to do with what other similar homes in the area have sold for recently, taking into account size, style, age, number of bedrooms and baths, garage, lot size, condition and, of course, location. Ultimately, though, the price you receive for your home will have to do with who the available buyers are, what they're looking for and what other houses are available for sale.


PRICING


For more information about selling your home at the right price, read our online report, PRICING: How to price your home in our Market. Feel free to call or e-mail us for an update.




Search the MLS or read more about Interest Rates, Power of Sale Properties, Price Trends and more at my website. Homes for Sale


Thank you for reading my blog and if there is anything else I can help you with please don't hesitate to contact me,


Mark


A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate

Thinking of Selling? Best Mortgage Rates Current Home Prices Search MLS
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.

Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987
( BUS 905-828-3434
2
FAX 905-828-2829 ÈCELL 416-520-1577
E-MAIL : mark@mississauga4sale.com
8 Website : Mississauga4Sale.com


Saturday, October 13, 2007

Tokyo Real Estate Prices on the rise - The sun isn't the only thing rising in Tokyo

The sun isn't the only thing rising in Tokyo
A Global Megacity; Property Prices Climb As Japan Escapes Long Slump
Shane McGinley
Financial Post

It's not the crazy '80s when prices for real estate in Tokyo rose by more than 270%, but things are looking bright in the Japanese capital. After years of weakness in the property market, prices have increased in the past few years.
CREDIT: Yoshikazu Tsuno, AFP, Getty Images
It's not the crazy '80s when prices for real estate in Tokyo rose by more than 270%, but things are looking bright in the Japanese capital. After years of weakness in the property market, prices have increased in the past few years.

It enjoyed a boom in the '80s, went bust in the '90s, but with property prices on the increase, the sun is rising once again over Tokyo.

Where is it? Japan is an archipelago of more than 400 islands and lies to the east of China, Korea and Russia. The capital Tokyo is located on the island of Honshu along the coast of Tokyo Bay.

Why Tokyo? Tokyo is not only Japan's biggest city, but a global megacity. According to the UN, it is the most populous metropolitan area in the world, has the largest GDP of any city and was just recently bumped off the top of the list of the world's most expensive cities. The Tokyo Stock Exchange is the second largest in the world after New York. Prices in Japan's six biggest cities are recovering from a 15-year slump. According to the Global Property Guide, prices grew by 4.1% in 2006 and by 7.75% in first half of 2007.

Best-kept secrets? Ivan Doherty, from finance company IFG Group, believes the best element of Tokyo is "without question the people. Japanese are very polite, easygoing and non-confrontational, and the country has a very low crime rate when compared with Western countries. It is a very easy place to live even, without an ability to speak the language."

Who's who? Regular famous faces in Tokyo include the Beck-hams, Tom Cruise, Cameron Diaz and, of course, Scarlett Johansson put it on the map in Lost in Translation.

What's the property market like? After the Second World War, Japan ascended to become the world's second largest economy. In the '80s, property prices in the six biggest cities rose by 272% and the stock market index grew by 542%. The property bubble burst in the '90s, causing a financial crash. Since 1991, residential house prices across Japan dropped by 42%. But in the past few years a recovery has begun and in 2006, prices grew by 10.4% on average.

Mr. Doherty believes that a weaker yen makes Japanese property a draw for foreigners, although interest rates are set to rise in the next six months. Traditionally, it has been difficult for foreigners to get mortgages in Japan, but several banks will now organize this for buyers.

Buyers guide There are no restrictions on foreigners buying property in Japan, but there might be linguistic and cultural barriers. Hire a local agent to represent you. They can be sourced through the Real Estate Companies Association of Japan and charge about 3% plus ¥60,000 ($551). The agent will draft a Juyoujikou Setsumeisho or Property Disclosure Statement, and when the deal is completed, a 10% deposit is paid and the title is transferred. Title registration can take about two weeks. Those planning on investing more than $2-million can appoint a notary to set up a Special Purpose Vehicle to register the property title on your behalf if you cannot be there in person. This can take about four to six weeks.

Where to buy? As Japan's population ages and shrinks, it is expected people will move closer to the city. So, be sure to buy in the city centre, inside the Yamate Dori ring road, to ensure land values don't decrease. Trains are vital and any property should be a five-minute walk from a station.

What's the rental market like? A strong rental market means that occupancy rates in central Tokyo are very high. The Global Property Guide pegs average monthly rents in the city centre at $2,445.62 for a 50-square-metre apartment to $7,249.58 for a 150-sq.m apartment. Rents decrease the further away the property is from a train station. Also note that rental management fees are high in Tokyo.

What's the resale market like? Tokyo buildings typically have a short lifespan. After 10 years it is common to completely renovate a property, and after 20 or 30 years, to demolish and rebuild. The second-hand market is not very liquid but developers may be keen to buy older buildings to renovate them.

What type of property is available? Local demand is high so properties are rarely advertised. An agent on the ground is essential. Houses are the best buy as you control the land. In an apartment you need the agreement of 85% of the building's owners before it can be demolished and rebuilt.

Average property prices? Global Property Guide data shows the average price of apartments in the centre range from $498,258 for a 50-sq.m unit to $1,849,285.46 for 150 sq.m.

Taxes & costs Purchase costs on a new property are around 4%, 7% on older property. Tax allowances are available depending on the size and age of the building.

FAST FACTS

Area 2,187 square kilometres Population 12.5 million Currency: Japanese yen ($1 = ¥109) Weather: Pacific climate with temperatures from 4C to 27C. Transport Tokyo has two main airports and is the transport hub for Japan. Rail transport is key and the extensive train network is fast, clean and efficient, although often crowded. Expressways and ferries link the city to other urban areas and islands and taxis are also common. Going out As a megacity with 23 different "wards," Tokyo is very diverse. In the city centre is the Imperial Palace, the nightclub districts of Roppongi, Kabukicho and Ebisu. Eating out Tokyo is the birthplace of sushi and the markets of Tsukiji are famous for it. There are thousands of restaurants catering to every palate. Fast-food outlets are plentiful; Japan has the second-highest number of McDonald's restaurants in the world. Shopping Tokyo is a mecca for electronics, funky fashions and antique furniture. Akihabara is best for electronic stores, Shibuya and Harajuku for fashion, and Seibu and Tobu are some of the largest department stores in the world. Tokyo agents - Housing Japan Inc.: www.housingjapan.net - Plaza Homes: www.plazahomes.co.jp - Real Estate Tokyo: www.realestate-tokyo.com

Useful contacts - Canadian Embassy in Tokyo: tel 81-3-5412-6200; tokyoconsul@international.gc.ca - Japanese Embassy in Ottawa: tel 613-241-8541; www.ca.emb-japan.go.jp - Real Estate Companies Association of Japan: tel: 81-3-3581-9421; www.fdk.or.jp

Search the MLS or read more about Interest Rates, Power of Sale Properties, Price Trends and more at my website. Homes for Sale

Thank you for reading my blog and if there is anything else I can help you with please don't hesitate to contact me,

Mark

A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate



Thinking of Selling? Best Mortgage Rates Current Home Prices Search MLS
RE/MAX

Realty Specialists Inc.

Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987
( BUS 905-828-3434
2
FAX 905-828-2829 ÈCELL 416-520-1577
E-MAIL : mark@mississauga4sale.com
8 Website : Mississauga4Sale.com

Friday, October 12, 2007

TRUMP TOWER - Trump fired up about Toronto tower

Trump fired up about Toronto tower

The Donald flew into Toronto in his private jet today to break ground on the 57-storey Trump International Hotel & Tower.

"This will be one of the great buildings in the world," New York developer Donald Trump told a small tented audience on the Bay St. site of the proposed skyscraper at the intersection of Bay and Adelaide Sts. in the city's financial district.

This artist's rendering shows the Trump International Hotel & Tower at Bay and Adelaide Sts. in Toronto, in between the Scotiabank and Bank of Montreal buildings.

Outside the sites, onlookers lined Bay St. with cameras hoping to catch a glimpse of the star of television's The Apprentice.

"When we come back here in two years, everyone in Toronto will be very proud."

Trump said more than $300 million in units had already been sold. The long-awaited building the developer's first in Canada will have 118 residences and 261 hotel suites.

There has also been deep skepticism among some in the real estate community that it would ever be built, since it has taken three years to break ground in a hot condominium market.

"We wanted to take our time to do this right. Even with a great location like this, if you don't build the right product, it won't work," said Trump.

Search the MLS or read more about Interest Rates, Power of Sale Properties, Price Trends and more at my website. Homes for Sale

Thank you for reading my blog and if there is anything else I can help you with please don't hesitate to contact me,

Mark

A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate



Thinking of Selling? Best Mortgage Rates Current Home Prices Search MLS
RE/MAX

Realty Specialists Inc.

Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987
( BUS 905-828-3434
2
FAX 905-828-2829 ÈCELL 416-520-1577
E-MAIL : mark@mississauga4sale.com
8 Website : Mississauga4Sale.com

It's not just the Canadian Dollar that is hitting all time highs - the Aussie's dollar is skyrocketing too

THE Aussie dollar hit another 23-year high in overnight trade, briefly reaching 90.61 US cents at 2.57am AEST for the first time since June 1984.

The Australian share market closed at fresh peaks again yesterday, ignoring a largely negative lead from the US after global miners BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto and other resources stocks headed higher.

THE dollar hit another 23-year high in overnight trade, briefly reaching 90.61 US cents at 2.57am AEST for the first time since June 1984.

The dollar peaked at 90.61 US cents during the New York session, clearly breaching the high of 90.50 US cents set on June 12, 1984.

The highest New York close since the dollar was floated on December 8, 1983, was 96.68 US cents on March 14, 1984.

The local currency traded above 90.5 US cents for lengthy periods during the overnight session. It has since lost some steam, but it remains above the US 90 cents level.

At 6.34am, the dollar was at 90.07 US cents.

Search the MLS or read more about Interest Rates, Power of Sale Properties, Price Trends and more at my website. Homes for Sale

Thank you for reading my blog and if there is anything else I can help you with please don't hesitate to contact me,

Mark

A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate


Thinking of Selling? Best Mortgage Rates Current Home Prices Search MLS
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.

Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987

( BUS 905-828-3434
2
FAX 905-828-2829 ÈCELL 416-520-1577
E-MAIL : mark@mississauga4sale.com
8 Website : Mississauga4Sale.com

Thursday, October 11, 2007

TORONTO HOUSING STARTS INCREASE STRONGLY IN SEPTEMBER

TORONTO HOUSING STARTS INCREASE STRONGLY IN SEPTEMBER

TORONTO, OCTOBER 9,2007 – Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

(CMHC) has released preliminary housing starts data for September 2007. The seasonally-adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of starts increased strongly to 41,800 in September from 32,300 in August. A robust annual rate of multiplefamily starts, especially for condominium apartments, drove this increase.

While condominium apartment starts were much stronger last month compared to September 2006, it should be noted that on an unadjusted basis through the first three quarters of the year starts of this housing type declined by 38 per cent compared to the first nine months of last year. The decline in new condominium apartment construction caused the total number of starts to dip by 12 per cent this year. Single-detached, semidetached and row (town) house starts were up 5.5 per cent compared to last year.

"Demand for new ownership housing has been very strong over the past year, due to seller's market conditions in the resale market driven by favourable local economic conditions and low borrowing costs," according to Jason Mercer, Senior Market Analyst at CMHC. "Demand for condominium apartments in the Toronto area has been especially strong. Record pre-construction condominium apartment sales experienced over the past two years have started to convert into increased starts. This trend is expected to continue in the last quarter of this year and through 2008."

Search the MLS or read more about Interest Rates, Power of Sale Properties, Price Trends and more at my website. Homes for Sale

Thank you for reading my blog and if there is anything else I can help you with please don't hesitate to contact me,

Mark

A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate


Thinking of Selling? Best Mortgage Rates Current Home Prices Search MLS
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.

Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987

( BUS 905-828-3434
2
FAX 905-828-2829 ÈCELL 416-520-1577
E-MAIL : mark@mississauga4sale.com
8 Website : Mississauga4Sale.com

Tuesday, October 09, 2007

Predictions on US interest rates and where they are heading over the next while


This is what the so called experts are predicting on US interest rates and where they are heading over the next while.


This week (Oct. 4 - Oct. 10) the experts say: There is still much uncertainty as to whether rates will rise or fall.


Experts' comments
The 10-year is currently trading at 4.55 percent and has not moved much, which is no surprise. Conforming rates have been steady. The jumbo market has stabilized a bit, with some big players coming back into the market and others making pricing corrections for the better. We will continue to see an improvement in rates through the end of the year. Remember the Fed is watching LIBOR closely and that will help determine what the Fed does next month.
Mitch Ohlbaum, president, Legend Mortgage, Los Angeles

Stocks will soon tumble as consumer spending continues to slow. Bonds will soon rally, meaning mortgages will become much more affordable.
Jeff Lazerson, president, Mortgage Grader, Laguna Niguel, Calif.

This market doesn't have enough data, one way or the other, to cement a major shift. One thing is certain: Locking your loan early is the best bet. Mortgage bonds are trading in a range with stiff upward resistance and the slightest sign of inflation could send interest rates through the roof overnight. Expect volatility.
Dan Dowling, president, United Mortgage Capital Corp., Altamonte Springs, Fla.
unchanged
Money is flowing back into stocks at the expense of mortgage bonds. Rates will move higher as a result.
Dan Green, mortgage planner, Mobium Mortgage, Chicago

We are sitting in the middle of a six-week range of interest rates as short-term volatility is becoming the norm. What's causing this are inflationary fears from the last and forthcoming cuts from the Fed tempered by weak economic data. Look for this to continue. Opportunities will exist to capture a lower rate on the right days.
Jim Sahnger, mortgage consultant, Palm Beach Financial Network, Stuart, Fla.

We are seeing some lower rates from jumbo investors, but it is obvious that they still have to sell the stuff they have been sitting on for the past two months. With the housing market soft and mortgage rates artificially high with lower demand, there is little reason to sell that stuff at a loss unless there is opportunity to loan that money again at a profit. It is sort of a Catch-22.
There is no underlying problem here. The folks who hold those mortgages will sell them and the machine will get running again, it just appears that they are in no hurry.
There are a few strategic things which will result from this. Some banks will only make mortgage loans originated by their own employees. Some may stop taking loans from brokers.
Dick Lepre, senior loan officer, Residential Pacific Mortgage, San Francisco

Bankrate's analysts
The forward path of mortgage rates will hinge on the outcome of the employment report. I'll say that revisionist history shows job growth in the past two months and, while not pretty, it wasn't as bad as initially thought. This will give mortgage rates a slight bump.
Greg McBride, senior financial analyst, Bankrate.com

The economy appears to be slowing down. Today's rates seem low by this summer's standards, but they were lower than this for much of last fall to this spring. Those lower rates are the norm.
Holden Lewis, senior reporter, Bankrate.com


Search the MLS or read more about Interest Rates, Power of Sale Properties, Price Trends and more at my website. Homes for Sale


Thank you for reading my blog and if there is anything else I can help you with please don't hesitate to contact me,


Mark


A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate


Thinking of Selling? Best Mortgage Rates Current Home Prices Search MLS
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.

Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987

( BUS 905-828-3434
2
FAX 905-828-2829 ÈCELL 416-520-1577
E-MAIL : mark@mississauga4sale.com
8 Website : Mississauga4Sale.com


Sunday, October 07, 2007

Bank holiday - Mortgage Interest rate updates and Happy Thanksgiving

Monday was a bank holiday. With the sound of air conditioners buzzing it's hard to believe it's Thanksgiving!
  • Interest rates have remained stable; however, most lenders have changed their pricing on Variable Rate Mortgages. Currently, Prime less .90% is available through only 1 lender. Others have decreased the discount to Prime less .50% and even Prime less .25%.
  • Question: Do I need a rate hold if I plan on a variable rate mortgage?
  • Answer: Yes! The rate hold will insure you get the lender's current discount - if the lender decides to change the pricing, within your rate hold period, your pricing discount remains in effect.

Mortgage Interest RATE UPDATE
October 5th, 2007

Prime Rate.6.25%
Variable Rate.Prime less .90%
1 year closed.5.60%
3 year closed.5.70%
5 year closed.5.60%*
7 year closed.5.78%*
10 year closed...5.85%*
25 year closed...6.70%

* for mortgage of $500,000 or greater; slightly higher rates for lower mortgage amounts
Information subject to change without prior notice. APR.E.&O.E.

If you have hosting duties this weekend, or need to bring along a dessert - this recipe is an alternative to the traditional pumpkin pie.

I hope you have a wonderful weekend!

PUMPKIN SQUARES

Easy to make, all the flavour of pumpkin pie without the work.

2 cups (500 ml) flour
1/2 cup (125 ml) icing sugar
1 cup (250 ml) unsalted butter, cubed
1 tsp (5 ml) salt
3 eggs, beaten
2 cups (500 ml) canned pureed pumpkin
3/4 cup (175 ml) packed brown sugar
1/3 cup (75 ml) corn syrup
1/2 cup (125 ml) whipping cream
2 tsp (10 ml) lemon juice
1 tsp (5 ml) vanilla extract
1 tsp (5 ml) cinnamon
1/2 tsp (2 ml) allspice or nutmeg
1/2 tsp (2 ml) ground ginger
1/4 tsp (1 ml) salt

  • Preheat oven to 350F
  • Line 9 x 13" baking pan with parchment paper
  • Mix flour & icing sugar together with butter & salt in food processor or by hand until mixture just comes together (do not let it form into a ball). Pat into lined baking pan & bake for 15 minutes or until golden at edges.
  • In food processor or blender, combine eggs, pumpkin, sugar, corn syrup, whipping cream, lemon juice, vanilla, cinnamon, allspice, ginger and salt. Process until well combined. Scrape sides & process again.
  • Pour over base & bake for 35 to 45 minutes, or until centre springs back when touched. Cool squares.

Topping

Drizzle over squares for a great look or skip this steps & serve plain

2 tbsp (25 ml) butter
2 tbsp (25 ml) cream cheese
1/2 cup (125 ml) icing sugar
1/4 cup (50 ml) milk (or less)

  • Combine butter & cream cheese with hand beater until soft and fluffy. Beat in icing sugar & milk. Use icing bag to drizzle over squares. Chill then cut into 24 squares.

Recipe from Food & Drink, Autumn 2003

Hapy Thanksgiving from Mark!

Search the MLS or read more about Interest Rates, Power of Sale Properties, Price Trends and more at my website. Homes for Sale

Thank you for reading my blog and if there is anything else I can help you with please don't hesitate to contact me,

Mark

A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate


Thinking of Selling? Best Mortgage Rates Current Home Prices Search MLS
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.

Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987

( BUS 905-828-3434
2
FAX 905-828-2829 ÈCELL 416-520-1577
E-MAIL : mark@mississauga4sale.com
8 Website : Mississauga4Sale.com

Friday, October 05, 2007

Understanding Your Credit Report and Credit Score




Understanding Your Credit Report and Credit Score


What many prospective borrowers don't realize is that the pricing of mortgages and other loans is based in part on their credit-worthiness. Consumers need to be aware of how their credit is evaluated by lenders, and how they can work to avoid so-called "bruised credit" people with a lower credit score can find themselves paying a higher interest rate, or even denied access to certain types of loans.



A credit report is a detailed history of how consistently you meet your financial obligations, and provides a picture of your financial health based on your past behaviour. A credit score is a three-digit number, usually between 300 and 900, representing your overall credit-worthiness, based on personal information from your credit report and other sources.



Both your credit report and score are important. When deciding whether or not to grant a mortgage loan, lenders refer to an applicant's credit report and score, along with a range of other factors such as income, employment history, and size of down payment.



The higher your score the more likely you are to be approved for a mortgage and receive favourable rates because the lender considers you to be a better credit risk. Several factors are used by the two credit agencies in Canada (Equifax Canada and TransUnion Canada) to calculate credit scores:





  • Debt payment history.

  • Amounts owed compared to your current credit limits with lenders.

  • How often you seek new credit.

  • Length of time you have had credit accounts.

  • Type of credit, such as car loans, lines of credit, credit cards.
Interst Rates



Search the MLS or read more about Interest Rates, Power of Sale Properties, Price Trends and more at my website. Homes for Sale



Thank you for reading my blog and if there is anything else I can help you with please don't hesitate to contact me,



Mark



A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate


Thinking of Selling? Best Mortgage Rates Current Home Prices Search MLS
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.

Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987

( BUS 905-828-3434
2
FAX 905-828-2829 ÈCELL 416-520-1577
E-MAIL : mark@mississauga4sale.com
8 Website : Mississauga4Sale.com



Wednesday, October 03, 2007

TD Canada Trust predictions for remainder of year

TD Canada Trust predictions for remainder of year



HIGHLIGHTS


  • Canadian economy records steady growth

  • Cross-currents will continue to blow across Canada's major industries

  • Inflation monster continues to lurk in the background



This morning's release of Canadian gross domestic product (GDP) for July – while falling in on the soft side of market expectations – revealed that the economy continued to churn out steady gains early in the third quarter. The 0.2% month-to-month increase recorded in the month leaves the economy on track to record a respectable rate of growth of 2.5-3% in the third quarter, which is only modestly slower than the 3.5% average outturn clocked in the first half of the year. As has been the case in recent months, the service sector remained the tower of strength, forging ahead by 0.3% on a month-to-month basis in July and counter-balancing another soft performance on the goods side (-0.1%). Since monthly data are notoriously volatile, we've provided a snapshot of year-over-year changes across the sub-industries As can be seen, the service areas have reigned supreme, while Canada's export-oriented manufacturing sector has struggled.



The headwinds will increase



While the weaker-than-expected GDP result pushed down Canadian bond yields and took some steam out of the overnight rally in the Canadian dollar – which had pushed the loonie to 1.007 U.S. cents – investors are more concerned with what may lie ahead. For one, neither the GDP data for July nor August's stronger-than-expected Canadian employment report factor in the fallout from the recent financial turmoil that spread across the globe. Certainly, credit conditions have improved since the height of the mid-August turmoil, with interest-rate spreads on riskier assets easing from their highs. Still, international credit markets have not returned back to normal, as evidenced yesterday when both the Bank of Canada and the ECB moved once again to inject liquidity into their respective overnight market in order to ease the upward pressure on lending rates. In Canada, participants of the Montreal proposal that aims to resolve the third-party asset backed commercial paper (ABCP) crisis announced this week that they will need more time to find a solution to the issue.



Perhaps more importantly, the prospects of the U.S. economy have steadily dimmed since the summer. This week's reported 4%/8% drop in new/existing home sales and further deterioration in prices point to a housing market retrenchment that still has at least a year to run. Investors were served up some better news this morning, with the reported 0.6% gain in U.S. personal spending, which topped forecasts. Yet the spotlight quickly turned to the weaker-than-expected 0.3% gain in personal income that put downward pressure on the saving rate.



Given that 70% of U.S. GDP is tied to the consumer, so much of the near-term outlook Stateside rests on the performance of the job market, and in turn, the level of business confidence. We remain optimistic that the business sector will keep its head above water in the months ahead, supported by still-healthy balance sheets and cash positions. This week's report on durable goods for August highlighted the fact that while non-defense capital spending has slowed over the past few months, it remains at a respectable level. Certainly, next week's U.S. non-farm payrolls report for September will provide precious insights. Our bet is that employment growth resumed in the month, but by only 75,000 jobs. This pace is consistent with our outlook for lethargic quarterly real GDP growth of 1.5-2% in the near term.



Cross-currents in Canada's economy



The chillier headwinds from tighter credit market conditions and softness in the U.S. economy will not be lost on Canada's economy. Little reprieve can be expected in manufacturing, which has seen its cost edge evaporate from the surge in the Canadian dollar. In some areas – notably autos – U.S. producers appear to be moving to shore up profitability, exacerbating the manufacturing challenge for Canada. That said, other industries will continue to enjoy solid conditions. Consumer-driven industries, such as wholesale and retail trade, will continue expand at a decent rate, supported by a 33+ year low unemployment rate. These two industries also top the list of Canadian sectors actually benefiting from a soaring loonie. Housing markets may have started to cool in Alberta, but ongoing strength nation-wide should continue to provide enormous spill-over benefits across the gamut of goods and services industries. Although resource companies are confronting rising costs and a higher loonie, ongoing rapid expansion in China will continue to provide a solid underpinning on prices for oil and metals. Above all, this week's announced $14 billion federal budget surplus for fiscal 2006-07 served up a reminder that government coffers in Canada are the envy of the G-7, providing wiggle room to initiate tax cuts and other measures to help offset some of the challenges on the competitiveness front.



Netting out these offsetting headwinds and tailwinds, we project economic growth in Canada to run at a rate of about 2% over the next year. This moderate pace will continue to fuel debate about the Bank of Canada's likely next move. In a speech this week, Bank of Canada Governor Dodge indicated that the current rate setting was appropriate in view of the downside risks to growth and inflation emanating from the U.S. and the upside risks from booming housing activity.



As we discuss in the latest monthly edition of TD Global Markets, released yesterday, it is the inflation risk that is likely to win out, prompting the Bank of Canada to raise rates by 25 basis points in December after the Fed delivers one final rate cut at its October confab. Given that financial markets are pricing in more significant easing in the U.S. and are still betting on a modest easing in Canada, we are projecting a backup in yields on both sides of the border by 30-40 basis points by year-end. Lastly, the Canadian dollar will end the year at parity before falling back to about 95 U.S. cents in 2008. Article courtesy of R.Paul Chadwick from TD Canada Trust




Search the MLS or read more about Interest Rates, Power of Sale Properties, Price Trends and more at my website. Homes for Sale


Thank you for reading my blog and if there is anything else I can help you with please don't hesitate to contact me,


Mark


A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate


Thinking of Selling? Best Mortgage Rates Current Home Prices Search MLS
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.

Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987

( BUS 905-828-3434
2
FAX 905-828-2829 ÈCELL 416-520-1577
E-MAIL : mark@mississauga4sale.com
8 Website : Mississauga4Sale.com