Sunday, December 07, 2008

CMHC report GTA resale real estate market performance in 2009

Here are some highlights and thoughts taken out of the latest CMHC report on how our real estate market will perform in 2009

It's interesting to note that CMHC is still predicting growth for next year.

All the best,

From CMHC's perspective, how do they think the GTA resale residential home market perform in 2009?

  • Increased resale market choice will result in less spill over demand in new home sales.
  • GTA's resale home price in 2009 has been forecasted to moderately grow by 1.8%.
  • GTA's MLS Sales are going to be strong from a historical standpoint.
  • GTA's low rise sales trends will continue to lower according to RealNet Canada Inc. & CMHC forecasts.
  • High rise sales will moderate but remain robust.
  • Moderate growth in wages across the GTA has been forecasted by statistics Canada, Bank of Canada and CMHC to increase by 2.6%.
  • Rising condominium completions will trigger more MLS listings.
  • Homebuyer intentions for rental households will be lowered.
  • Increasing choice in the resale home market will result in moderate price growth
  • Price trend is flattening as average GTA existing home prices are going to stabilize.
  • Resale market will be more balanced according to sales-to-new listings ratio.
  • Condominium apartments will be popular as high rise sales. Share of high rise sales, as a percentage of total sales, has been forecasted to be 60% in 2009 compared to 58% in 2008.
  • More supply in the condo market will result in more moderate price growth.

Drivers of Housing Demand, Economic Conditions & Interest Rate Outlook:

  • Homeowners have accumulated equity in their homes across the country & the strongest accumulation of equity built was in Western Canada where homes appreciated more rapidly back in 2007.
  • Immigration will continue to compensate for weaker growth from other sources & GTA will be the key beneficiary of immigration.
  • Given the tight labour market, growth in disposable income will remain strong.
  • Mortgage Rates will remain low, but will edge slightly higher late in 2009
  • Foreign-born population as percentage of total population is 45.7% in Toronto.
  • Home ownership is a key goal for immigrants & therefore rate of home ownership will increase.
  • Tight labour market means job growth will moderate
  • The share of mortgages in arrears is near its most moderate level since 1990
  • Home owners in Ontario, Quebec, and the Atlantic Provinces have also built considerable equity in their homes.

Housing Outlook Summary

  • MLS sales are expected to moderate from record levels in 2008 and 2009 and housing starts will move more in line with demographic fundamentals.
  • Economic fundamentals will remain strong in Canada. High employment levels, rising incomes and low mortgage rates will provide a solid foundation for healthy housing markets. However, increased supply of existing homes listed for sale coupled with the rise in house prices in recent years will moderate the demand for housing in 2008 & 2009.

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A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate

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