Thursday, February 26, 2009

Power of Sales Percentage Increase in past 2 years

I received another great email question and I thought I would share my answer with you.
Hi Mark,

Out of curiosity, what is your best estimate as to the % increase in foreclosures/powers of sale in the Oakville and GTA area over the last ~2 years?

I am 26 yrs old and in the market for a house (I will be getting married this summer). I first started searching for homes in 2007 realizing that prices were massively inflated. I've been waiting for these days of crumbling home values, and like you, I follow TREB statistics and plot them on a monthly basis to get a good indication of where the housing market is going. Hence, I was just wondering (as another 'indicator') what the approx. increase in foreclosures has been. I'll also mention that I am currently working as a mechanical engineer (in training), so as you can understand I do have a "technical" interest in the housing market :)

Any response would be helpful. Thanks.

Regards

MC



Hello MC,

Thank you for your real estate inquiry. Nice to hear you are getting a good education, nothing will replace that in your life !

POS properties have increased in Mississauga from about 40 to 43 at any one time to 50 to 55 at any given time, thus about 20%, on average.

Yes, average prices have fallen, but a great part of the drop is due to the upper valued homes dropping by 100k or more. The lower end of the market is still 'tight' so I don't see those prices falling much further than existing levels. Mortgage rates are at or near all time lows. You will only know that prices have bottomed about 2 to 4 months after they have bottomed, and that will be too late. Prices will have possibly escalated 5% or more by that time.

I can't predict more than 2 to 4 weeks in the future, but nobody knows the direction of our marketplace for sure, nobody. I think we may see a small increase this spring, then another drop in the summer and another rise in the fall. Where the absolute average price is in the fall is anybody's guess. Many are predicting another 5 to 10 drop, so hold on!

Please let me know if you have any other questions or if there is anything else I can help you with.

Thank you again for contacting me and I will do my best to help you with your real estate needs,

Mark

A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate


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