Wednesday, November 18, 2009

CMHC predictions on Mortgage Rates, Employment, Income, Net Migration, Natural Population Increase, Resale Market and Vacancy Rates

How do these 6 important key indicators affect our economy and what does CMHC predict for each of the next year, very interesting reading!


  1. Mortgage Rates
  2. Employment Income
  3. Net Migration
  4. Natural Population Increase
  5. Resale Market
  6. Vacancy Rates

Movements in mortgage rates are difficult to predict due to uncertain economic conditions. Nevertheless, rates are expected to remain steady this year and gradually rise over the course of 2010. Mortgage rates will remain very low in a historical context.

Due to the economic downturn of 2009, employment is expected to decrease this year. However, 2010 should see economic conditions improve, which will help employment turn back up in 2010.

Over the past few years, tight labour markets have put strong upward pressure on personal income growth. For 2009, softer labour markets will cause growth in wages and incomes to moderate. In 2010, income growth will strengthen, along with economic activity.

Net migration is forecast to decrease from record levels in 2008, but will remain relatively high. An improving job market will favour an increase in net migration for 2010.

The low birth rate is the major factor in the slowing of growth in the natural population (births minus deaths). This will lessen the demand for additional housing stock in the medium and longer term.

Sales on the existing home market have rebounded in 2009, which has caused markets to move from buyers’ to sellers’ conditions. While MLS® sales are expected to moderate from the near-record levels of the second and third quarters of 2009, sellers’ markets conditions will put upward pressure on house prices in 2009 and 2010.

Increased competition from the condo market and modest rental construction will be partly offset by rental demand. As a result, vacancy rates across

Canada’s metropolitan centres will remain relatively stable this year and next.

I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!

All the Best!


A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate

Thinking of Selling? Best Mortgage Rates Current Home Prices Search MLS Newsletter
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987

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1 comment:

  1. This is really unpredictable to guess about mortage rates in coming times. But you have written a very good article about it. I have found it very much interesting & helpful. Thank You.