Friday, October 05, 2018

How does "affordability" (sales price + interest rate) influence market direction

Greetings from fabulous Mississauga!

I received a couple of insightful questions from an avid reader and thought I would share the questions and my thoughts on them

The questions were:

Mark,

I really enjoy receiving your emails with the latest POS properties and all the real estate information that you include.

I have a couple of questions:

     1. The average house price fluctuation we see on a yearly basis, is that price when the property is sold or is it the closing date? This would shift the cycle by a couple months depending.

      2. I can’t help wonder the influence of interest rates on price. I have a suspicion that “affordability” (sales price + interest rate) has a lot to do with the market direction? Have you ever graphed the house prices vs. interest rate?

Keep the great information flowing!!

Thanks again

BB

My answer was:

Hello BB

Thank you for your email.

Regarding your first point, the sold price is as of the date the property was sold, not the closing date.   

Your second point about the relationship between interest rates and prices is interesting.  I suspect here is a relationship, but not sure how closely one follows the other.  When rates increase it seems there is often a slight pause or lull in sales and then it continues again.  On the other hand, sometimes when rates go up there is a sudden surge in sales as the people who are pre-approved and locked into the lower rate end up purchasing.  When rates are trending downwards and there is a drop in the mortgage rate or an expected drop in rates, purchasers often go into a holding pattern waiting for rates to bottom out.   It really depends upon the “mood” of the market and which direction rates are going.  I’ll see what I can find with the numbers and let you know if I find a good relationship and high confidence value.

You also mention affordability and market direction.  Yes, I believe there is a relationship between these two factors too.  Again, there seems to be a tipping point where when rates and prices get too high, affordability becomes an issue and the market slows down.  The converse is also true.  I’ve found that the trend and the mood of the real estate marketplace and the press has more impact on the market direction than the actual numbers.  There are many instances of fear influencing the market far more than a change in interest rate or price.  When the government introduced the foreign buyers tax which ultimately affects less than 4% of all sales, our market collapsed.  Conversely, the fear of missing out on the rapid and sustained rise in prices caused many people to get into the market sooner than they otherwise would have (or should have) during many periods over the past 30 years.

Depending on where we are on the “Market Cycle”  greatly affects the marketplace.  To read more, see this page: http://www.mississauga4sale.com/Market-Emotions-Cycle.htm  I see that I need to update that page!

There are many more aspects to the real estate market that one can analyze. 

All very interesting factors to consider! J

Thank you,
Mark

Monday, September 03, 2018

Bank of Canada Raised the prime lending rate to 1.5% on July 12, 2018

As of July 12, 2018 the Bank of Canada Raised the prime lending rate to 1.5%

The major banks and lenders in Canada soon followed and increased their prime rate charged to their customers by 25 basis points to 3.70 per cent from 3.45 per cent, effective July 12, 2018



I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!
All the Best!
Mark
A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate

RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987

BUS 905-828-3434
FAX 905-828-2829  CELL 416-520-1577
mark@mississauga4sale.com

Mississauga4Sale.com


Thursday, April 19, 2018

Bank of Canada Interest Rate Announcement April 18 2018 - Maintain overnight rate target at 1.25 per cent

Greetings from Fabulous Mississauga! 


The Bank of Canada announced yesterday, April 18, 2018 they would maintain overnight rate target at 1.25 per cent

This means that the bank rate will remain at this level for at least the next 3 months.

The Bank of Canada governors made it very clear that Canadians must be prepared for a series of future interest rate increases.

See the full press release below.

All the best!
Mark




Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1 ¼ per cent

The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 1 ¼ per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 ½ per cent and the deposit rate is 1 per cent.
Inflation in Canada is close to 2 per cent as temporary factors that have been weighing on inflation have largely dissipated, as expected. Consistent with an economy operating with little slack, core measures of inflation have continued to edge up and are all now close to 2 per cent. The transitory impact of higher gasoline prices and recent minimum wage increases will likely cause inflation in 2018 to be modestly higher than the Bank expected in its January Monetary Policy Report (MPR)returning to the 2 per cent target for the rest of the projection horizon.
The global economy is on a modestly stronger track than forecast in January, with upward revisions to growth and potential output in a number of major advanced economies. The outlook for the U.S. economy has been further boosted by new government spending plans. However, escalating geopolitical and trade conflicts risk undermining the global expansion.
In Canada, GDP growth in the first quarter was weaker than the Bank had expected, but should rebound in the second quarter, resulting in 2 per cent average growth in the first half of 2018. The economy is projected to operate slightly above its potential over the next three years, with real GDP growth of about 2 per cent in both 2018 and 2019, and 1.8 per cent in 2020. This stronger profile for GDP incorporates new provincial and federal fiscal measures announced since January. It also reflects upward revisions to estimates of potential output growth, which suggest the Canadian economy has made some progress in building capacity.
Slower economic growth in the first quarter primarily reflects weakness in two areas. Housing markets responded to new mortgage guidelines and other policy measures by pulling forward transactions to late 2017. Exports also faltered, partly owing to transportation bottlenecks. Some of the weakness in housing and exports is expected to be unwound as 2018 progresses.
The Bank anticipates that Canadian exports will strengthen as foreign demand increases, but not sufficiently to recover the ground lost during recent quarters. Export growth is being increasingly limited by capacity constraints in some sectors. Continued gains in business investment should build additional capacity in those sectors and in the economy more generally. However, both exports and investment are being held back by ongoing competitiveness challenges and uncertainty about trade policies.
Growth in consumption remains robust, supported by strong labour income growth. Wages have continued to pick up as expected, even after factoring out recent minimum wage increases in Ontario and Alberta. The Bank will continue to assess labour market data for signs of remaining slack.
Some progress has been made on the key issues being watched closely by Governing Council, particularly the dynamics of inflation and wage growth. This progress reinforces Governing Council’s view that higher interest rates will be warranted over time, although some monetary policy accommodation will still be needed to keep inflation on target. The Bank will also continue to monitor the economy’s sensitivity to interest rate movements and the evolution of economic capacity. In this context, Governing Council will remain cautious with respect to future policy adjustments, guided by incoming data.


I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!
All the Best!
Mark
A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate

RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987

BUS 905-828-3434
FAX 905-828-2829  CELL 416-520-1577
mark@mississauga4sale.com

Mississauga4Sale.com


Tuesday, March 13, 2018

Search Properties in Mississauga and Surrounding Areas of the GTA

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Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) Average Prices and Graph

For more information please contact A. Mark Argentino

A. Mark Argentino, Broker, P.Eng.,
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc., Brokerage
2691 Credit Valley Road, Suite 101, Mississauga, Ontario L5M 7A1
BUS. 905-828-3434
FAX. 905-828-2829
E-MAIL: mark@mississauga4sale.com
Website: Mississauga4Sale.com