Friday, May 30, 2008

CMHC comments on Ontario holds on despite manufacturing woes — Despite

Ontario holds on despite manufacturing woes

Despite concern of a recession, Ontario managed to pump out growth of 2.1% last year. The manufacturing sector remained in contraction mode as output declined for a third consecutive year. The role of manufacturing in the economy continued to fall as well. In 2002, manufacturing accounted for 22% of Ontario's GDP compared to 18% in 2007.

Widespread strength in other sectors — including a vibrant consumer and a healthy construction sector — helped offset the decline. Job markets are being watched closely for signs that cracks are emerging. Despite weakness concentrated in the manufacturing and finance-related sectors, most other sectors are still adding jobs. However, a lion's share of the offset is coming from public sector job gains.

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Thank you for reading my blog and if there is anything else I can help you with please don't hesitate to contact me,

Mark

A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate


Thinking of Selling? Best Mortgage Rates Current Home Prices Search MLS
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.

Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987

( BUS 905-828-3434
mark@mississauga4sale.com
8 Website : Mississauga4Sale.com

Homes for Sale

Thursday, May 29, 2008

CMHC reports that Growth in house prices will slow as housing market becomes more balanced

Growth in house prices will slow as housing market becomes more balanced

For 2008, the demand will moderate.
Existing home sales, as measured by
the Multiple Listing service (MLS®),
are expected to decrease by 8.5 per
cent to 475,900 units. In 2009, the
trend will be similar with another
decrease to 465,000 units (-2.3 per
cent). MLS® sales will step back given
a moderating demand due to rising
mortgage carrying costs.
Despite a slowdown of MLS® sales
and a general ease on the market,
demand remains strong by historical
standards. For 2008 and 2009,
growth in the MLS® average price will
remain above inflation. Prices will
reach $323,000 (+5.1 per cent) in
2008 and $333,500 (+3.3 per cent)
in 2009.

It will be interesting to see if this comes true!
Mark

Wednesday, May 28, 2008

New Anti-Money Laundering Regulations in Canada

New Anti-Money Laundering Regulations

The Issue

The Department of Finance and FINTRAC are currently proceeding with an aggressive plan to implement new anti-money

laundering and anti-terrorist financing (AML/ATF) regulations in mid 2008 and 2009. New regulations affecting the real

estate industry take effect on June 23rd, 2008.

REALTORS® have consistently supported the federal government's efforts to monitor, document and report known

suspicious and illegal activity since 2002, and have been meeting regularly with officials since 2005 to develop a clear

implementation protocol for the adoption of the new requirements. Despite this, licensees are being asked to perform

functions that they are simply unable to do.

We also believe that neither the federal government, our industry, nor the general public is adequately prepared for the

June implementation deadline.

Our Concerns

Among the major concerns that REALTORS® have are:

• The Federal Government is unprepared for the June 23rd, 2008 deadline – placing REALTORS® at risk of noncompliance.

The interpretations and guidelines for the new regulations remain incomplete.

• Huge loopholes in the legislation still remain. For example, the private sale market is not captured under the

regulations. As a result, criminal activity can and will continue to operate through these channels.

• Government will be forcing salespeople into a law-enforcement role.

• REALTORS® will be required to identify the client of a cooperating Broker. This will leave unsecured private

information in every real estate office.

• Under the new rules, REALTORS® will now be required to ask for and verify the identity of private buyers or sellers –

individuals with whom they have no legal or contractual obligation.

• REALTORS® do not have the tools to identify beneficial owners, third party participants, or assignees.

• The industry is not prepared, in terms of procedures or security resources, for the major increase in personal

information that will evolve with the new regulations.

Recommendation:

REALTORS® urge the government of Canada to

delay the enforcement

of the new anti-money laundering and

anti-terrorist financing regulations until such a time that guidelines are clear for all concerned. Industry must be given an

appropriate amount of time to properly prepare - and thus continue to function as a partner with government in combating

criminal activity.

REALTORS® urge the government to

rescind the requirement for identifying and recording the personal information

of any individuals with whom they have no legal relationship. They also call on the government to close major loopholes in

the regulations by regulating the private sale and For Sale By Owner Industries immediately.

REALTORS® call upon the Government of Canada to

initiate a public campaign to educate the general public

with

respect to the mandatory new client identification, record keeping, and reporting requirements as authorized under the

Proceeds of Crime (Money Laundering) and Terrorist Financing Act.

Read more about:Homes for Sale

Thank you for reading my blog and if there is anything else I can help you with please don't hesitate to contact me,

Mark

A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate


Thinking of Selling? Best Mortgage Rates Current Home Prices Search MLS
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.

Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987

( BUS 905-828-3434
mark@mississauga4sale.com
8 Website : Mississauga4Sale.com

Homes for Sale

Tuesday, May 27, 2008

CMHC reports Housing starts will begin to trend lower in 2008

Housing starts will begin to trend lower in 2008


Despite positive economic fundamentals,
housing activity will continue
to trend down over the next
year and a half. Most of the pent-up
demand that built up during the
1990s has now been fulfilled and
residential construction activity will
gradually move in line with Canadian
demographic fundamentals. Higher
home prices and the resulting
increase in mortgage carrying costs
will temper homeownership demand,
particularly in western provinces.
Competition from the existing
home market will increase as housing
markets move toward balanced
conditions, giving homebuyers more
choice. This, in turn, will dampen
spillover demand from the existing
market into the new home market.
These trends will dampen new
home construction. The number of
starts is expected to decrease to
214,650 units in 2008 and 199,900
units in 2009.


Interesting news from CMHC!
Mark

Monday, May 26, 2008

How to Get Rid of a Telemarketer

Excerpts from How to Get Rid of a Telemarketer

Identifying a Telemarketer

Each time the phone rings there is a chance that a telemarketer looms on the other end of the line. To successfully rid yourself of
an annoying sales call, you must remain prepared to act immediately. Therefore, identifying a telemarketer as soon as-or better
yet, before-you pick up the receiver is essential to implementing effective anti-telemarketer techniques. Follow the procedures
outlined on the following pages to prepare yourself to handle unwanted calls.


1. Recognize the Ring

Always consider the activity you are engaged in when the telephone first rings. There is at least a fifty percent chance that you
are about to have an encounter with a telemarketer if you are:


Watching your favorite TV show.
Taking a bath.
Changing a diaper.
Eating dinner.
Engaged in "marital relations."
Leaving the house, late for an engagement.
Reading in the bathroom.
Napping.
Painting the ceiling.
Burning cookies.


June Says: Hi there, readers! Do you have call waiting? If you're talking long-distance with an old friend and
someone "beeps in," chances increase to eighty percent that the new caller wants to sell you something!



2. Recognize the Greeting

To deflect a sales call effectively, you must be able to identify a telemarketer and hang up (or take charge of the call--your
choice) before he or she can squeeze off seven words. If a caller answers your greeting in any of the following ways...



Four Steps to Hanging Up

Let's cut to the chase: many of you bought this book simply because you want nothing more than to rid yourselves of phone
pests. Your compassion as a human being, however, may prevent you from simply hanging up. (This may also be a sign of
codependency: by speaking to telemarketers, you are also acting as their "enabler.") Whatever the case, you need to know
how to hang up quickly and effectively. Remember, to really help those on the other end of the line, we must discourage them
from pursuing their current careers. Once you've correctly identified a telemarketer, use the four steps on the following pages to
gain the confidence you need to free yourself from sales calls.


Step 1. Interrupt the Telemarketer.

This is perhaps the hardest step, most often because once a telemarketing pitch begins, it's hard for anyone to get a word in
edgewise. It is, however, one of the most important aspects of phone solicitation deterrence: confronting telemarketing calls
relies on actually speaking.
Beginners may wish to employ an "apologetic" approach: "I'm sorry, but I must hang up the phone now. This is very difficult for
me. I'm going through a four-step program to help me learn to hang up on telemarketers. I don't blame you for the call or your
unfortunate career choice-I hope you'll understand."


If you succeed with Step 1, proceed directly to Step 4. If not, go to Step 2.

Step 2. Walk Away.

If you can't bring yourself to interrupt a telemarketer, simply set the phone down and walk away. You can rest assured the
caller will keep right on talking and never know you've gone.
Were you able to lay down the phone for at least one minute? Congratulations! You're making progress.


Now go back to Step 1 and try again to interrupt the caller, but this time speak before listening to the caller's voice-this way
you give yourself the illusion that you're not actually interrupting.
If you couldn't set the phone down for at least one minute, proceed to Step 3...


Efficient Escape 1:
Confuse the Caller


If you're confident a telemarketer looms on the other end of your ringing phone, answer by saying: "Hi, I'd like to place an
order to go," and continue by reading your favorite Chinese restaurant take-out menu. If the telemarketer doesn't on his or her
own, HANG UP!


Efficient Escape 3:
Create a Technical Difficulty


Interrupt by ignoring the telemarketer and saying, "Hello? Hello?" Click the reset button twice quickly, without hanging up, and
repeat "Hello? Hello?" Follow by saying, "Well, whoever it was, they must have hung up." Then HANG UP! If they call back,
repeat. If they call back more than three times, tell them you were just kidding, compliment them on their persistence, and
HANG UP immediately!


Efficient Escape 7:
Rehearse Your Vegas Act


Interrupt by breaking into song during the telemarketer's pitch. Don't stop until they hang up. If they remain on the line, soften
your voice, creating a "fade away" effect and hang up after a few bars. Show tunes and anything by Ethel Merman tend to be
the most effective, but nothing clears your phone line faster than your own rendition of Whitney Houston's "I Will Always Love
You." Leave the hanging up to the telemarketer.


Elaborate Encounter 1:
The Old Codger/Old Crone


If the caller asks, "Is this the man [or woman] of the house?" Tell them, "Just a minute, please." and pretend to hand the phone
to "dad" or "grandpa" (or "mom" or "grandma") as the case may be. Then use your best "old codger" (or "old crone") voice and
bombard the caller by repeating "Huh?" and "Speak up!" If they persist, go into a pointless, meandering, story that begins:
"Why, back in my day we didn't " Add drool-laden "slurp" noises for effect. The phone salesperson will soon give up.


Elaborate Encounter 6:
Vacuum Sales


Is the telemarketer offering a "free," one-room carpet cleaning? Excellent! Don't pass this one up! Simply tell them to "Come
right over! Right now! Because, believe it or not--what timing! This is great! You see, I'm fleeing--er, moving out of
state--very, very soon. Everything is set to go, but this house is a rental and I'll never get the deposit back if I don't get this
carpet cleaned. How soon could you guys get here? It will get blood stains out, won't it? How about identifiable fibers, like hair
or that DNA stuff? You know, like in the O.J. trial? Say, you don't think he really did it, do you? You want to know my
theory?" Again, run with this one as long as you can.


Elaborate Encounter 15:
Veggiebabble


Based on the theory that you don't have to actually be psychotic to act crazy, this routine causes most telemarketers to question
their career choice. When a telemarketer begins a pitch, arbitrarily begin inserting the names of vegetables as they try to speak.
After the first or second "rutabaga" or "broccoli" they should respond by saying, "What?" Reply by naming another vegetable
("okra" and "Brussels sprouts" work particularly well). The salesperson will begin laughing uncomfortably and hang up. You
win.


How to Get Rid of a Telemarketer also features a dozen more escapes and encounters, Telecommunication Specialist Bob
Schuck's guide to the modern Touchtone phone, a profile of a typical telemarketer, and even other jobs that utilize
telemarketing skills.


Enjoy,
Mark

Sunday, May 25, 2008

PROTECTION TIPS for preserving your Identity

PROTECTION TIPS

While the Identity Watch program is an excellent way to guard your identity and protect your credit, no one is completely safe. Take the following steps to further minimize the risk of identity theft.

  • Get a shredder and destroy any unneeded charge receipts, copies of credit applications, insurance forms, cheques and bank statements
  • Cut up expired charge cards that you're discarding, and credit offers you get in the mail
  • Monitor your financial records and credit rating
  • Don't share personal information on the Internet unless you've initiated the contact or know who you're dealing with
  • Promptly remove mail from your mailbox
  • If you're away from home and can't pick up your mail, call Canada Post to request a vacation hold
  • Shield your computer from viruses and spies by updating firewall and virus protection software

Read more about:Homes for Sale

Thank you for reading my blog and if there is anything else I can help you with please don't hesitate to contact me,

Mark

A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate


Thinking of Selling? Best Mortgage Rates Current Home Prices Search MLS
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.

Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987

( BUS 905-828-3434
mark@mississauga4sale.com
8 Website : Mississauga4Sale.com

Homes for Sale

Friday, May 23, 2008

Mortgage interest rate update

Fixed rates have dropped slightly, RBC started the trend on Wednesday and others are following.
Below are the latest posted and discounted mortgage interest rates in the GTA
POSTED OUR RATES*
6 Month 6.20%6.20%
1 Year6.15%4.85%
2 Year6.15%4.90%
3 Year6.15%4.99%
4 Year6.59%5.25%
5 Year6.65%4.99%
7 Year7.40%5.80%
10 Year7.75%5.90%
Variable Rate4.00%
Prime Rate4.75%
* Rates may vary provincially and are subject to change without notice.
Rates Last Updated: Thursday, May 22, 2008

Read more about:Homes for Sale

Thank you for reading my blog and if there is anything else I can help you with please don't hesitate to contact me,

Mark

A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate


Thinking of Selling? Best Mortgage Rates Current Home Prices Search MLS
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.

Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987

( BUS 905-828-3434
mark@mississauga4sale.com
8 Website : Mississauga4Sale.com

Homes for Sale

Thursday, May 22, 2008

CMHC reports on economic outlook

At a glance:
Mortgage Rates
Employment
Income
Net Migration
Natural Population
Increase
Consumer Confidence
Resale Market
Vacancy Rates



Mortgage rates have moved slightly higher over the past year. This rise, in conjunction
with higher house prices, has and will continue to push mortgage carrying costs higher.

As a result, this will ease housing demand, particularly for first-time buyers.

A record share of Canadians continue to be employed, moving the economy close to
full-employment. Accordingly, job growth should slow to rates that are more in line
with overall population growth. Job creation will continue to stimulate housing
demand, but not as much as in the previous years.

Rising incomes will continue because of tight labour markets and a strong demand for
workers. This should partially offset the negative impact of higher mortgage carrying
costs on home ownership demand.

Net migration is expected to remain strong in 2008. Ontario, Quebec, and British
Columbia will continue to attract the bulk of the international immigrants. B.C.,
Alberta and Saskatchewan will attract a large number of inter-provincial migrants from
the rest of Canada.

Canada's population is aging, and as a result, a smaller proportion of people are in
their child bearing years and thus the birth rate is decreasing. High immigration levels
will slow the average aging of the population, however, the rate of increase in the
natural population (births - deaths) is slowing. This will eventually lessen the demand
for additional housing stock in the longer term.

Consumer confidence, as measured by the Conference Board of Canada, remains
positive. Furthermore, strong consumer sentiment is expected to prevail throughout
the forecast period. Confident consumers will continue to support demand for home
ownership.

Lower existing home sales, combined with a high level of new listings in 2008, will
move the resale market towards more balanced territory. As a result, the rate of
growth in the average MLS® price will moderate during 2008, especially in Canada's
western provinces.

Modest rental construction and increased competition from the condo market will be
offset by strong rental demand due to high immigration and a rising gap between the
cost of homeownership and renting. As a result, vacancy rates across Canada's
metropolitan centres should remain relatively stable, but slightly higher in 2008.



Read more about:Homes for Sale

Thank you for reading my blog and if there is anything else I can help you with please don't hesitate to contact me,

Mark

A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate


Thinking of Selling? Best Mortgage Rates Current Home Prices Search MLS
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.

Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987

( BUS 905-828-3434
mark@mississauga4sale.com
8 Website : Mississauga4Sale.com

Homes for Sale

Tuesday, May 20, 2008

CREA report on Canadian existing home sales

Canadian existing home sales for April were released late this afternoon by the Canadian Real Estate Association, and were up a tad from March (+0.8% in seasonally adjusted terms).

That still left sales down 6.1% y/y versus a weather-pounded 18.7% y/y plunge in March. (In seasonally adjusted terms, sales were down 12% y/y in both months.) Average prices rose just 3.2% y/y, versus a Q1 pace of 5.5% and an 11% increase for all of 2007. That’s the slowest increase for prices since October 2001. Prices actually fell from a year ago in both Calgary and Edmonton, as well as in Windsor and St. Catharines. (Talk about the two extremes of the growth rainbow.)

Even Vancouver saw price increases dip into single-digit terrain, joining Toronto and Ottawa. However, Regina (at +64.6% y/y), Saskatoon (+31.2%) and Winnipeg (+19.9%) are still ripping along with double-digit price gains, joined by a few other smaller cities in central and eastern Canada.

So far this year, national home sales are down 11% y/y, and prices are up a moderate 4.8%.

The sales drop and the modest price gain are well down from years of double-digit increases, and further confirmation that the boom days are over. Notably, no city in the country has reported a price decline from year-ago levels over the first four months of the year, so the slowdown is still far from mimicking the U.S. experience.

However, we would point out that new listings have climbed more than 8% this year, even as sales have slid, pointing to “a more balanced market” according to CREA (i.e. much more of a buyer’s market), and even less upward pressure on prices looking ahead. In CREA’s words --- “presentation factors such as prudent pricing are necessary for a faster sale”. That’s a polite way of saying: If you’re looking for double-digit price gains, dream on

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Thank you for reading my blog and if there is anything else I can help you with please don't hesitate to contact me,

Mark

A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate


Thinking of Selling? Best Mortgage Rates Current Home Prices Search MLS
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.

Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987

( BUS 905-828-3434
mark@mississauga4sale.com
8 Website : Mississauga4Sale.com

Homes for Sale

Holiday weekend rate update & more

Hello,

Hoping everyone has some free time to enjoy the first long weekend of the spring/summer season! If the weather guys are right....the yard work may need to be postponed!

Important information about variable rate mortgages:

Did you know:

  • Lenders allow clients to switch their variable rate mortgage into a fixed rate product during the term;
  • Only a few lenders will commit in writing, that the client will receive the best rate when they switch;
  • Most lenders will offer the posted rate (approx. 1.5% higher than the best rate).

Of course, no one advertises the rate will be posted but when the decision is made to lock-in, it becomes a very shocking & expensive realty.

Working with a mortgage broker, you will receive unbiased advise & information.

Based on the comparison of all the features & terms, the mortgage broker can advise you on the best lender for the type of mortgage you want. Having choices is significant.

Interest rates have remained stable...the next Bank of Canada announcement is scheduled for June 10th.

Have a great weekend,
Mark

Friday, May 16, 2008

This is what RBC tells it's customers in times of fluctuating markets

This is what RBC is emailing to their clients who have investments in the Canadian equity markets

As a self-directed investor, you know market volatility is unavoidable. And when volatility increases, as it has since mid-2007, you may be keeping a closer eye on your investments and considering your next steps. Staying committed to your long-term plan is critical. Equally important is confirming your tolerance for risk and building a disciplined approach to diversification into your portfolio.

Don't lose sight of your investment plan and goals - short and long term. Reflect on your comfort level with potential exposure to downturns and consider your options:

> I'm comfortable riding the ups and downs.
Validate your portfolio holdings using the tools and research available through your online investing site. These include various S&P portfolio styles: fundamental, quantitative and risk-adjusted. Plus you can look to research from RBC analysts including daily Canadian equity research summaries and market commentaries along with a quarterly global investment outlook.

> I'm having difficulty sleeping at night; I am uncomfortable with the volatility.
Use the asset mix calculator to review your risk profile and asset allocation. If your review indicates a decreased tolerance for risk, you may benefit from a more conservative portfolio; we offer one of the largest fixed income inventories in Canada, including GICs from over 20 issuers, to ensure access to the best rates available. You can also select from a wide range of mutual funds, providing professional money management across a large range of balanced, income and money market funds.

Once you have decided which option suits you, be sure to keep a disciplined approach to diversification and stay focused on your plan and goals. Stay current on the markets by looking at the Daily Morning Market Commentary, Canadian Equity Research Summaries and S&P Weekly Outlook - all found under the Research tab.

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Thank you for reading my blog and if there is anything else I can help you with please don't hesitate to contact me,

Mark

A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate


Thinking of Selling? Best Mortgage Rates Current Home Prices Search MLS
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.

Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987

( BUS 905-828-3434
mark@mississauga4sale.com
8 Website : Mississauga4Sale.com

Homes for Sale

Thursday, May 15, 2008

CMHC predicting Terms of trade advantage to help Canada outperform the U.S. economy

Terms of trade advantage to help Canada outperform the U.S. economy

Canada's economy will slow but will slightly outperform the U.S. economy, with support coming from high prices for Canadian natural resource exports.

Domestic demand will slow modestly due to credit tightening.

Canada's trade sector will act as a significant drag on Canada's economy this year and next.

The core inflation rate is expected to remain below 2% this year, with the all-items CPI likely to drop to 1% mid-year.

We are calling for the Bank of Canada to lower the overnight rate to 2.75% to mitigate downside risks to the growth outlook coming from a weakening U.S. economy, tight credit conditions and a strong Canadian dollar.

Read more about:Homes for Sale

Thank you for reading my blog and if there is anything else I can help you with please don't hesitate to contact me,

Mark

A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate


Thinking of Selling? Best Mortgage Rates Current Home Prices Search MLS
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.

Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987

( BUS 905-828-3434
mark@mississauga4sale.com
8 Website : Mississauga4Sale.com

Homes for Sale

Wednesday, May 14, 2008

RBC thinks that Bank of Canada to ease rates to 2.75%

RBC thinks that Bank of Canada to ease rates further

We also made a modest revision to our Bank of Canada call in mid-March with the Bank expected to lower the overnight rate to 2.75% rather than the 3% in our previous forecast.

With the U.S. economy in the midst of an economic downturn, Canada's growth prospects have been dampened and we forecast that the economy will grow at a tepid 1.6% this year with first-half growth averaging a modest 1%. Previously, we projected 2008 real growth of 1.7%. Financial conditions in Canada are mirroring those in other global markets with the cost of capital rising. Slumping U.S. demand for Canadian exports will weigh heavily on the pace of expansion and we expect that net exports will subtract about 3-1/2 percentage points from the 2008 economic growth rate.

The Bank of Canada acknowledged the downside risks to the economic outlook coming from the slowing U.S. economy and tightening in credit conditions when they upped the pace of rate cuts to 50 basis points on March 4 from 25 basis points at the December and January fixed action dates.

In March, policymakers reiterated that "further monetary stimulus is likely to be required in the near term to keep aggregate supply and demand in balance and to achieve the 2 per cent inflation target over the medium term", pointing to further easing in monetary policy.

Our forecast that Canada's economy will grow at a sub-potential pace in the first six months of 2008 is consistent with both the core and all-items inflation rates holding below the 2% mid-point of the Bank's inflation target range for most of the year.

Market interest rate forecasts have been tuned lower as well, with rates now expected to hold around current levels for the first half of the year and to gradually increase in the final six months. Our year-end forecast for the two-year Canada rate is 2.8%, down from our earlier projection of 3.25%. With the 10-year yield forecast at 3.75%, down from 4%. Canada's two-year/10-year yield curve will remain steep and Canada-U.S. interest rate spreads are expected to narrow modestly this year.

Read more about:Homes for Sale

Thank you for reading my blog and if there is anything else I can help you with please don't hesitate to contact me,

Mark

A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate


Thinking of Selling? Best Mortgage Rates Current Home Prices Search MLS
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.

Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987

( BUS 905-828-3434
mark@mississauga4sale.com
8 Website : Mississauga4Sale.com

Homes for Sale

Tuesday, May 13, 2008

Mortgage Interest Rate Snapshot Mississauga and GTA

Below is a table showing the current posted mortgage interest rates in the GTA plus "Best Rates" offered by some lenders. Rates are excellent again, not at historic lows, but close, see graph of historic mortgage interest rates

TermPosted
Rates
Best
Rates*
6 Month7.00%4.99%
1 Year6.95%4.74%
2 Year7.00%4.79%
3 Year7.00%4.89%
4 Year6.85%5.14%
5 Year7.00%5.15%
7 Year7.35%5.29%
10 Year7.75%5.79%
Variable Rate4.15%
Prime Rate4.75%

Rates are subject to change, some conditions & restrictions may apply.

Enjoy,
Mark

TD Canada Trust thinks that housing starts in Canada are strong

Canadian housing starts strength is timely U.S. focus shifts to "how deep, how long?"

Canadian economic data did not disappoint this week, far from it. For starters, total building permits shot back above 230,000 units in February after trending mostly down since the middle of last year.

Then, housing starts for March closed out the
quarter on a strong note, barely budging from
February's astonishingly high level of around
255,000 units. The level of first quarter housing
starts (246,000 units) ranks close to the highest
ever on record, which dates back to 1977. Even after
adjusting for population growth and trends in
household formation, we judge the current pace of
home construction to be unsustainably high. In
particular, the volatile multiple-unit segment is
vulnerable to a second quarter payback, after
shooting through the roof in the first quarter.
Nonetheless, current momentum has lead us to
increase our 2008 forecast to 221,000 starts, a 3%
decline from 2007. [More in "Canada's Red Hot Real
Estate Markets to Cool", available on our website.]
Fortunately, in the current cycle where the Canadian
economy does its best to weather the U.S. downturn,
strength in construction activity could not have
come at a better time. The construction sector has
certainly done its part in recent months. It has
been a significant direct and indirect contributor
to Canadian economic growth and employment, and
shows, as of yet, little sign of relinquishing that
role.


Even trade lent a hand


Another positive surprise this week was that even
the weakest spot for the Canadian economy in the
current cycle, namely exports, fared much better
than expected in February. On a month-over-month
basis, the volume of exports shot up 3.6% while
import volumes were down 1.9%, which combined imply
that net exports will have lent a significant hand
to growth accounting for February. As a consequence
of unexpected strength in construction and exports,
overall first quarter growth is not looking nearly
as weak as we forecast in March, and will surely be
positive. However, for a multitude of reasons which
still hold – in particular a strong Canadian dollar,
emerging market competition, and mostly, weak U.S.
demand – we still hold firm the view that exports
will remain the weak spot for the Canadian economy
going forward. They will likely continue to exert a
significant drag on Canadian growth in upcoming
months, with February written off as a blip when all
is said and done.


Sombre Frenchmen


On the other side of the Atlantic, the French seem
to be in no mood to kid these days, despite the
usual comic antics to come out of Sarkozy's press
conferences. Between virulent protests - what else
is new? - in Paris over the Olympic torch relay and
the decidedly somber mood from top men at the IMF
(Dominique Strauss-Kahn) and the ECB (Claude
Trichet), "joie de vivre" seems to be in short
supply these days. They are not alone in feeling
bearish of course. The little data for the U.S.
economy that was released this week did little to
change our or central bankers' views on the U.S.
outlook, so allow us to editorialize a bit more than
usual this week.


Concerns over the U.S. economy have shifted in
recent weeks. The focus up to recently seemed to
have been an understandable, but misguided, fixation
on whether or not the U.S. is technically in a
recession. The jury on this, which is the cycle
dating committee of the National Bureau of Economic
Research, doesn't offer its verdict until much later
after events have unfolded. Much confusion arises in
the meantime as the only thing anyone can provide
until then is a forecast, be it theirs or someone
else's. Anyone claiming the U.S. economy is
currently in a recession is providing you with their
forecast, not a statement of fact. By the same
token, anyone claiming the U.S. is not in recession
is offering, you guessed it, their forecast. As time
passes and more data comes in, uncertainty
surrounding the forecast dissipates and the
likelihood of it being correct improves – nothing
more, nothing less. Think of the NBER as the Pope
(insert alternative authoritative religious figure
here as needed) of recessions, but given the huge
lag, we don't advise waiting around for the 'final'
word.


TD Economics' forecast is that the U.S. economy is
indeed currently in the midst of a recession, which
will record two non-consecutive quarters of real GDP
contraction. By itself, the fact the quarterly
contractions are not expected to be consecutive
would make this an atypical recession. But there are
other more substantive issues which would also make
the current recession unlike those past. Overall,
our U.S. forecast stands on the slightly pessimistic
side of consensus, but is not currently quite as
bearish as that of the IMF. The accompanying table
compares the IMF forecast from April to ours from
March.


Loud and clear


After slashing their U.S. forecast by a full
percentage point for 2008 and 1.2 percentage points
for 2009, the organization has now come out clearly
on the gloomy side of things. Interestingly, it
would seem hard to remain poised if one lines up
this week's simultaneous alarm bells rung off by the
IMF. First, their latest Economic Outlook has world
growth slowing considerably this year – agreed.
Second, the IMF thinks there's a 1 in 4 chance of a
worldwide recession (less than 3% growth) – again,
we'd agree that the current uncertainty means a
wider range of potential outcomes with
higher-than-usual probability, so we would not
quibble with that figure. According to another IMF
report, we are currently facing the worst financial
crisis since the great depression, with financial
losses forecast at $945 billion. Maybe, but
comparisons to the great depression are off the mark
in both scope and depth. Specific estimates as to
aggregate financial losses vary greatly and depend
on market outcomes. Any such calculation is fraught
with uncertainty, and the IMF's estimate is
certainly as good as any, if not better than most.
Third, food price inflation is causing riots in some
developing countries and threatens to seriously
compromise efforts to fight poverty in many regions
of the developing world. Every one of these concerns
is valid, even if slightly over-hyped by the media
at times.


But without dismissing any of the aforementioned
concerns, dare we remain cautious pessimists while
at the same time putting things in perspective and
say that the world is not coming to an end? Dare we
say that the same financial players in the U.S.
which originated much of the currently toxic
asset-backed securities (ABS) are also the fastest,
certainly with a lot of help from the Federal
Reserve, to adjust their books and clear out the
mess? Dare we remind observers how many times the
American economy has been written off, bound for the
heap of history, only to lead the world economy into
another decade of growth? None of this means the
U.S. economy will fare well in the near term, far
from it. It will at best move sideways until
mid-2009, at worse face a deeper recession. And we
are nowhere near done with alleviating financial
markets stresses worldwide, as credit spreads can
attest. But it might serve as a friendly reminder
that gloom is in part self-fulfilling, and that the
remarkably flexible U.S. economy has consistently
shown an ability to land on its feet. Just something
to keep in mind if your time

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Thank you for reading my blog and if there is anything else I can help you with please don't hesitate to contact me,

Mark

A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate


Thinking of Selling? Best Mortgage Rates Current Home Prices Search MLS
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.

Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987

( BUS 905-828-3434
mark@mississauga4sale.com
8 Website : Mississauga4Sale.com

Homes for Sale

Friday, May 09, 2008

TD Canada Trust comments on Canadian and US economy and Rates

HIGHLIGHTS

  • U.S. economy grew 0.6% in the first quarter
  • U.S. lost 20k jobs in April, less than expected
  • Fed cuts a quarter-point; sees risks balanced

As the Oracle of Omaha prepares to meet with shareholders, we are left to sift through this week's plethora of data in order to prophesize what is to come for the U.S. economy. We have dispensed with the crystal balls, have left our dark robes at home, and require no secret handshakes or Gregorian chants in order to attend. Consuming the eye of newt and toe of frog is optional.

A touch of GDP

The U.S. economy maintained its 0.6% pace from the last quarter of 2007 through the first quarter of 2008. On face value, one may say the U.S. economy got no worse. The details, however, were less than convincing. The pace of decline in residential construction accelerated further, and was joined by new contractions in both nonresidential construction and business investment. Were it not for an accumulation of inventories – businesses restocking shelves and producers resupplying inputs – the U.S. economy would have contracted by 0.2%. Increasing business capacity would be completely natural if there was an expectation the economy were about to turn a corner.

However, consumer spending growth slowed from 2.3% to just 1.0%, the slowest quarterly gain in over a decade. Perhaps consumers are waiting for their stimulus checks from the Treasury – the first of which were sent out this week and will continue through mid-July. Consumers are losing about $10bn per month in spending power just from the loss of mortgage wealth alone. The checks will add about $10-12bn per month in spending power – but will only last for the next three to four months. So retailers could be gearing up for a short-term spending spree.

In our chart above, we have broken out U.S. consumer spending between goods and services, as well as between wants (cars, televisions, etc.) and needs (food, energy, bills, etc.). All four categories are outperforming the typical start of a U.S. recession. Goods purchases are falling across the board, but only at about half the pace typically seen at the start of a recession. Even more impressively, service growth is expanding at more than twice its usual pace for wants and eight times the usual pace for needs.

Since spending on consumer services constitutes 40 per cent of the U.S. economy, the question is whether this can be sustained. Well, one-quarter of consumer services (one-tenth of the U.S. economy) is rent (and its equivalent for homeowners). One result of increasing home foreclosures and retrenchment in construction has been falling vacancy rates among rental units. So the worsening housing market has actually provided some support for this component of GDP. However, in the last two recessions, there was a lag of about 12 months between the worst declines in residential construction and initial declines in this rental component. In the 1980s housing crash, the lag was even shorter. Adding to these risks, one-in-ten dollars of consumer services spending is household operations – gas, electric, sewage, phone, etc. – and the generally close relationship between this component and residential construction has never been more strained. Year-over-year declines of over 20% in home construction typically translate into 5% declines in household operations spending, which is now posting 5% y/y gains. With the potential for further foreclosures, and with hefty demands for utilities likely to ease after a bad winter across much of the U.S., the risks for this component lie squarely on the downside.

A dash of jobs

But ultimately, as goes the labour market, so goes the consumer. The U.S. economy shed just 20k jobs in April - one-quarter of the market's expectation – and the unemployment rate fell from 5.1% to 5.0%. The chart across compares the job losses over the last four months with the average in the last three U.S. recessions. At the aggregate, we have been averaging just 65k lost jobs per month, less than the 100k that would be typical. Losses in construction and financial services have been ugly – no surprise given they are at the heart of the current problems. But weaknesses have leaked into the business services, trade (retail and wholesale) and transportation sectors leaving them just as bad as in past recessions. Manufacturing and mining (Other Goods) have seen just half the recessionary level of average monthly job losses, while the pace of job gains in other services (health, education, IT, hospitality, etc.) has been twice the usual pace.

In a typical recession, the total monthly job losses tend to double from this point forward. Moreover, while every sector covered here tends to worsen in the remaining months of the recession, manufacturing and business services tend to be the hardest hit. The ISM manufacturing survey pointed to further weakness to come in this sector, but the weak dollar – by boosting exports – is likely to continue to help mitigate job losses here to some extent. For business services, the losses of temporary workers, which have constituted all of the job losses to date in this sector, tend to be followed by even larger losses in full-time staff as economic weakness continues and may offer a hint of the economy's health as we move forward.

The blind-worm's sting

The Federal Reserve this week cut interest rates an additional quarter point, bringing the fed funds rate to 2.00%. Their statement generally left their descriptions unchanged for the economy (negative) and inflation (uncertain with a touch of hope). They did remove their mention of downside risks, which could imply they feel the level of interest rates is appropriate to balance the desire for moderate economic growth in the future with the risk of stoking inflation. In the near term, we may see the Fed pause to see how the economy reacts to 325bps of interest rate cuts over the last eight months – as well as $100bn in tax rebate checks. However, 325bps in interest rate cuts have translated into less than 75bps in cuts to 30-year mortgage rates and less than 25bps in cuts to rates on new car loans. We fear further economic weakness will warrant more easing, bringing the target rate to 1.25% by year-end. The Fed on Friday announced an expansion of liquidity operations aimed at increasing the pass-through into lower consumer loan rates, but they have yet to find the right mix of ingredients in their cauldron to cure what ails the economy.

The economic environment in the U.S. is as clear as mud. There are no clear precedents for when the financial market problems will dissipate and exactly how they will continue to bleed into the U.S. and global economy. For instance, the Canadian economy contracted for the second time in three months in February, with growing weakness in the trade and transportation sectors. As a testament to the U.S. spill-over effect, the predominant areas of weakness in the Canadian economy remain goods sectors dependant on U.S. demand. The worst still remains contained within the U.S.

Read more about:Homes for Sale

Thank you for reading my blog and if there is anything else I can help you with please don't hesitate to contact me,

Mark

A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate


Thinking of Selling? Best Mortgage Rates Current Home Prices Search MLS
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.

Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987

( BUS 905-828-3434
mark@mississauga4sale.com
8 Website : Mississauga4Sale.com

Homes for Sale