Sales Bubble? Average GTA Prices and Sales volumes can seem confusing - I'll try and remove some of the confusion

I just received a question from a reader and thought I would share the question and my answer to you.

The question was:

Hello Mark,

I  was able to observe  some variances the monthly price statics in your website and other data sources as noted below.  Since you're a professional Engineer I am confident that you have much stronger quantitative skills than most realtors and was wondering if you could help me to reconcile some real estate pricing data? 

I am specifically referring to the the Oakville Milton and York Region pricing data.   

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2017/08/23/toronto-housing-bubble-has-expired-and-gone-to-meet-its-maker_a_23158813/

Regards,

G.

Hello G

Thank you for your email.

The Huffington Post article you are referring to below flips back and forth talking about volume of sales and sales prices.  Then at the end of the article they quote that prices are still up comparing July 2016 to July 2017 by 5.1%   I can see how this can seem confusing.

The chart they show are actual selling prices in the two areas, York and Oakville Milton.  The article states that the graphs are 'Residential Sales" and I'm assuming they are showing "only" detached home prices, not the overall average residential (which would include condos townhomes etc. I say this because I don't believe the average of ALL residential in Oakville and Milton in the spring was ever about $2.3Million.    Seems high for the 'average'  Regardless, I would say that the graphs are likely very accurate. 

You could write the author and ask where the data came from and what the actual data is showing.

You can see my graph of the data here:

http://www.mississauga4sale.com/TREBprice.htm#graph

It is similar to the data shown in the article.

My graph also shows a drop in the overall TREB average single family residential price from approximately $916k in March 2017 to $746k in July 2017 – a giant overall drop in average price.  This coincides with the seasonal summer slowdown period, so it's not quite as dramatic as you many think.  On the other hand, it's only the second time since January of 1995 that summer prices have dropped below the previous fall average prices – this signals a significant change in the marketplace.

It's not all doom and gloom, but it shows how quickly the market can turn.  We've seen this before in 1988/1989 and again in 2008/2009 - this could be a short blip in the market or a trend, only time will tell!

I hope this helps a little.

Please let me know if you have other questions

Thank you,

Mark

Mississauga and GTA Real Estate Marketplace Conditions as reported on June 5th 2017

Hello from Fabulous Mississauga!

The latest numbers have just been reported from TREB for last months (May 2017) real estate marketplace.

As expected, the number of MLS listings are up by over 42% and the number of sales were down by 26%

Average prices year over year were up BUT the average price dropped from $919,614 in April to $863,910 in May.  This is highly unusual for average prices to drop in the period April to May.  Generally the average price increases during this period and has increased over the past 8 years except in 2012 where it dropped marginally.  This year the drop from April to May was about 6%

See the graph of average prices by clicking the image below.

The full report is below

I wish you all the best!

Mark

Active Listings Increase in May

TORONTO, June 5, 2017 – Toronto Real Estate Board President Larry Cerqua announced that Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 10,196 sales through TREB’s MLS® System in May 2017 – down by 20.3 per cent compared to 12,790 sales reported in May 2016.

Sales of detached homes were down by 26.3 per cent. Sales of condominium apartments were down by 6.4 per cent.

Active listings – the number of properties available for sale at the end of May – were up by 42.9 per cent compared to the lowest level in 15 years recorded in May 2016, but remained below the average and peak during that period. The number increased considerably for low-rise home types including detached and semi-detached houses and townhouses. Active listings for condominium apartments were down compared to May 2016.

“Home buyers definitely benefitted from a better supplied market in May, both in comparison to the same time last year and to the first four months of 2017. However, even with the robust increase in active listings, inventory levels remain low. At the end of May, we had less than two months of inventory. This is why we continued to see very strong annual rates of price growth, albeit lower than the peak growth rates earlier this year,” said Mr. Cerqua.

Selling prices continued to increase strongly in May compared to the same month in 2016. The MLS® HPI Composite Benchmark price was up by 29 per cent year-over-year. The average selling price for all home types combined for the TREB Market Area as a whole was up by 14.9 per cent to $863,910. Year-over-year price increases were greater for condominium apartments compared to low-rise home types.

This likely reflects the fact that the low-rise market segments benefitted most from the increase in listings.

“The actual, or normalized, effect of the Ontario Fair Housing Plan remains to be seen. In the past, some housing policy changes have initially led to an overreaction on the part of homeowners and buyers, which later balanced out. On the listings front, the increase in active listings suggests that homeowners, after a protracted delay, are starting to react to the strong price growth we’ve experienced over the past year by listing their home for sale to take advantage of these equity gains,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Director of Market Analysis.

I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!

All the Best!

Mark

A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987
BUS 905-828-3434
FAX 905-828-2829  CELL 416-520-1577
mark@mississauga4sale.com

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Residential Real Estate Market in the GTA April 2016 Highlights of the latest report from TREB

Greetings from Fabulous Mississauga!

Highlights of the latest report from TREB for the Residential Real Estate Market in the GTA

• The Average price for last month was $688,181 (it was $685,278 the previous month) and this represents aver a 12.1% increase compared to the same month last year- see graph of prices here
• Sales volumes were 10,326 (it was 7,621 last month) and this an 15.8% increase from the same month last year
• The 2015 calendar year total number of sales was 101,299 – a substantial 9.2 per cent increase compared to 2014 as a whole
• There were 22,575 sales in the first quarter of 2016 and the year-over-year growth rate for sales was 15.8 per cent for Q1 2016.
   
• The Bank of Canada Prime Lending Rate now stands at 2.70% steady (since July 2015) read more

See the full report and Graphs of Latest Prices here

Strong Growth in Home Sales in March/Q1

TORONTO, April 5, 2016 – Toronto Real Estate Board President Mark McLean announced record TREB MLS® home sales for the first quarter of 2016 following a strong result for March transactions.

There were 10,326 sales in March and 22,575 sales in the first quarter.

The year-over-year growth rate for sales was 15.8 per cent for Q1 2016 and 16.2 per cent for March 2016. For the TREB market area as a whole, double-digit year-over-year rates of sales growth were experienced for all major home types during the first quarter.

The positive annual growth in sales was not mirrored on the listings front. The number of new listings entered into TREB's MLS® System during March and the first quarter were down compared to the same periods in 2015.

“At the beginning of 2016, TREB’s outlook for the year pointed to a strong possibility of a second consecutive record year for home sales. This outlook was based, in part, on upbeat consumer survey results pointing to robust home buying intentions. It is clear that these upbeat intentions have translated into record first quarter results,” said Mr. McLean.

The MLS® Home Price Index Composite Benchmark for March 2016 was up by 11.6 per cent compared to March 2015.

The average selling price for all home types combined was up 12.1 per cent year-over-year in March and 13.6 per cent in the first quarter.

“Demand was clearly not an issue in the first three months of 2016, regardless of the housing market segment being considered. The supply of listings, however, continued to aggravate many would-be home buyers. We could have experienced even stronger sales growth were it not for the constrained supply of listings, especially in the low-rise market segments.

The resulting strong competition between buyers has underpinned the double-digit rates of price growth experienced so far this year," said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Director of Market Analysis.

See the full report and Graphs of Latest Prices here

I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!

All the Best!

Mark

A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987
BUS 905-828-3434
FAX 905-828-2829  CELL 416-520-1577
mark@mississauga4sale.com

Mississauga4Sale.com

• Thinking of selling your home in the next 3 to 6 months?  Would you like a Complimentary & Quick Over-The-Net Home Evaluation ?
  http://www.mississauga4sale.com/internet-evaluation.htm
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  http://www.mississauga4sale.com/popupquestion.htm
• See seasonal housing patternshttp://www.mississauga4sale.com/TREBprice.htm

Highlights Latest Report from TREB Market Watch for the Residential Real Estate Market in the GTA March 2016

Highlights of the latest report from TREB for the Residential Real Estate Market in the GTA

• The Average price for last month was $685,278 (it was $631,092 the previous month) and this represents aver a 11.1% increase compared to the same month last year
  
  - see graph of prices here
  
• Sales volumes were 7,621 (it was 4,672 last month) and this an 21.1% increase from the same month last year  
• The Bank of Canada Prime Lending Rate now stands at 0.50% since July 2015 read more
  
  read more
  
• See more at this page about average prices and read the TREB full price and data report below.

This is the full price and data report from TREB for last month

Record February Sales

TORONTO, March 3, 2016 – Toronto Real Estate Board President Mark McLean announced Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported a record number of home sales through TREB’s MLS® System in February 2016. There were 7,621 transactions reported this past February – up 21.1 per cent compared to February 2015.

The number of new listings entered into TREB’s MLS® System was also up on a year-over-year basis, but by a lesser 8.2 per cent. The fact that the annual rate of sales growth outstripped the annual rate of price growth shows a tightening of market conditions compared to last year.

“Even after accounting for the leap year day, sales were above the previous record for February set back in 2010. Sales were up strongly from the 15th day of the month onward as well, despite the new federal mortgage lending guidelines coming into effect that require at least a 10 per cent down payment on the portion of purchase prices between $500,000 and $1,000,000,” said Mr. McLean.

Seller’s market conditions continued throughout the GTA in February. Strong competition between buyers resulted in a healthy growth in selling prices. The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite Benchmark was up by 11.3 per cent year-over year.

The average selling price was up by 14.9 per cent annually to $685,278.

“Recent polling conducted for TREB by Ipsos suggested that GTA households will remain upbeat about purchasing a home in 2016. Early sales results for January and February certainly support this view. 

With strong sales up against a constrained supply of listings, home prices continued to trend strongly upward,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Director of Market Analysis.

All the Best!

Mark

I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!

All the Best!

Mark

A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987
BUS 905-828-3434
FAX 905-828-2829  CELL 416-520-1577
mark@mississauga4sale.com

Mississauga4Sale.com

• Thinking of selling your home in the next 3 to 6 months?  Would you like a Complimentary & Quick Over-The-Net Home Evaluation ?
  http://www.mississauga4sale.com/internet-evaluation.htm
• Power of Sales and Foreclosureshttp://www.mississauga4sale.com/Power-Sales-Bank-Sales-Alert-Request.htm
• If you have not already signed up to receive my monthly real estate newsletter, you may do so here: On-Line Real Estate Newsletter sign up
  http://www.mississauga4sale.com/popupquestion.htm
• See seasonal housing patternshttp://www.mississauga4sale.com/TREBprice.htm

Toronto Real Estate Board latest sales results for single family dwellings in GTA

Hello from Beautiful Mississauga!

This is the latest statistics and press release from the Toronto Real Estate Board

Average prices for last month were $577,936  - up 8 percent compared to same month last year

Number of Sales for last month were 6.354 - up 6.6 percent compared to same month last year

The press release and statistics are below

I hope this finds you happy and healthy!

Mark

Sales & Price Growth Continue in November

TORONTO, December 4, 2014 – Toronto Real Estate Board President Paul Etherington announced that Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 6,519 residential transactions through the TorontoMLS system in November 2014.

This result was up by 2.6 per cent compared to 6,354 sales reported in November 2013. Through the first 11 months of 2014, total sales amounted to 88,462 - up 6.6 per cent compared to the same period in 2013.

While the trend of year-over-year sales growth continued, the supply of listings remained constrained, with active listings at the end of November down in comparison to last year.

"Even with a constrained supply of homes for sale in many parts of the Greater Toronto Area, buyers continued to get deals done last month. Households remain upbeat about home ownership because monthly mortgage payments remain affordable relative to

accepted lending standards. This is coupled with the fact that housing has proven to be a quality long-term investment," stated Mr. Etherington.

The average selling price for November transactions was up by 7.4 per cent year-over-year to $577,936. The year-to-date average price was up by 8.4 per cent to $567,198.

The MLS(R) Home Price Index Composite Benchmark price for November was up by 7.7 per cent compared to a year earlier.

"The robust average price growth experienced throughout 2014 has been fundamentally sound, with demand high relative to supply. Strong competition between buyers has exerted upward pressure on selling prices. Barring a substantial shift in the relationship between sales and listings in the GTA, price growth is expected to continue through 2015," said Jason Mercer, TREB's Director of Market Analysis.

PRESS RELEASE:

TORONTO, December 4, 2014 - Toronto Real Estate Board President Paul Etherington announced that Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 6,519 residential transactions through the TorontoMLS system in November 2014.

This result was up by 2.6 per cent compared to 6,354 sales reported in November 2013. Through the first 11 months of 2014, total sales amounted to 88,462 - up 6.6 per cent compared to the same period in 2013.

While the trend of year-over-year sales growth continued, the supply of listings remained constrained, with active listings at the end of November down in comparison to last year.

"Even with a constrained supply of homes for sale in many parts of the Greater Toronto Area, buyers continued to get deals done last month. Households remain upbeat about home ownership because monthly mortgage payments remain affordable relative to accepted lending standards. This is coupled with the fact that housing has proven to be a quality long-term investment," stated Mr. Etherington.

The average selling price for November transactions was up by 7.4 per cent year-over-year to $577,936. The yearto-date average price was up by 8.4 per cent to $567,198. The MLS(R) Home Price Index Composite Benchmark price for November was up by 7.7 per cent compared to a year earlier.

"The robust average price growth experienced throughout 2014 has been fundamentally sound, with demand high relative to supply. Strong competition between buyers has exerted upward pressure on selling prices. Barring a substantial shift in the relationship between sales and listings in the GTA, price growth is expected to continue through 2015," said Jason Mercer, TREB's Director of Market Analysis.

Greater Toronto REALTORS® are passionate about their work. They are governed by a strict Code of Ethics and share a state-of-the-art Multiple Listing Service. Over 36,000 TREB Members serve consumers in the Greater Toronto Area. The Toronto Real Estate Board is Canada’s largest real estate board.

All the Best!

Mark

I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!

All the Best!

Mark

Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987
BUS 905-828-3434
FAX 905-828-2829  CELL 416-520-1577
mark@mississauga4sale.comMississauga4Sale.com

Thinking of selling your home in the next 3 to 6 months?  Would you like a Complimentary & Quick Over-The-Net Home Evaluation ?
www.mississauga4sale.com/internet-evaluation.htm

Power of Sales and Foreclosures
www.mississauga4sale.com/Power-Sales-Bank-Sales-Alert-Request.htm

If you have not already signed up to receive my monthly real estate newsletter, you may do so here: On-Line Real Estate Newsletter sign up
www.mississauga4sale.com/popupquestion.htm

See seasonal housing patterns
www.mississauga4sale.com/TREBprice.htm

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Months of Inventory (MOI) Indicator Toronto Real Estate Board now calculating and publishing

The Toronto Real Estate Board has just released a new indicator of the market. It's called a Months of Inventory indicator. It's calculated by dividing the previous 12 month average # of active listings by the previous 12 month average number of sales. The result is the average time to sell an actively listed property!


TREB Publishing New Months of Inventory Indicator

January 9, 2012 -- Happy New Year! I hope all TREB Members had a restful holiday season after a very busy 2011. Just to recap, we had the second-best year on record in terms of sales (89,347) and the average selling price rose by eight per cent to $465,412. At the same time, total new listings for the year were down by almost four per cent.

The supply side of the market was the big story over the last 12 months. I am guessing that many TREB Members had clients who faced significant competition from other Buyers when trying to get a deal done on a home. On the flip side, I am guessing that many Members also had listings that attracted substantial interest and sold in short order for a good price.

What I am describing here is a typical Sellers' market: lots of Buyers, a shortage of listings and strong price growth.

TREB is now publishing a Months of Inventory (MOI) indicator to help Members and the public get a better handle on market conditions. MOI is also published at the national scale in Canada by CREA and in the United States by NAR. I want to briefly explain how this new indicator works and then give some examples of its use.

MOI is calculated by dividing the 12-month average for active listings by the 12-month average for sales. The result tells us how long it would have taken, on average, to sell all actively listed homes. As of the end of December, this number was 2.2 months. If, moving forward, we see the MOI trend upwards this would suggest that the market is becoming better supplied and we may see less upward pressure on price. If we see the indicator trend lower, this would suggest that market conditions are tightening and strong upward pressure will continue to be exerted on price.

In the post-recession period, MOI has hovered in the 2.0 to 2.5 month range.

This is substantially lower than the pre-recession norm of between 3.0 and 3.5 month range. When we look at market conditions in this context, it is easy to see why we have seen above average price growth over the last couple of years - eight per cent last year following nine per cent in 2010.

We can also use MOI to compare different municipalities in the GTA. A look at the MOI column on pages 3 and 4 of the December Market Watch shows us that the relationship between sales and listings varies quite a bit across the region - from a low of 1.2 months to a high of over nine months.

The MOI can also help us position the GTA within the national context.

According to CREA, MOI was 7.4 months for Canada and 4.8 months for Ontario in November versus 2.2 months for the GTA. This may suggest that the GTA market is tighter than the national and Ontario averages. With this in mind, it is not surprising that year-to-date average price growth for the GTA was in the upper third of Canadian metropolitan areas.

However, when making these types of comparisons it is important to bear in mind that each market area has evolved differently over time. So, while a more balanced market in Toronto may be associated with MOI of 3.5, other markets may be characterized by a MOI of six months.

As we move through 2012, we should expect to see the MOI start to increase.

The strong price growth we have seen over the last year should prompt more households to list. In fact, we have started to see year-over-year growth in new listings outstrip growth in sales in many parts of the GTA. If this trend continues, we will likely see the annual rate of price growth moderate into the mid-single-digits.

I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!

All the Best!

Mark

A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987
BUS 905-828-3434
FAX 905-828-2829 CELL 416-520-1577
mark@mississauga4sale.com
Mississauga4Sale.com

* Thinking of selling your home in the next 3 to 6 months? Would you
like a Complimentary & Quick Over-The-Net Home Evaluation ?
www.mississauga4sale.com/internet-evaluation.htm

* Power of Sales and Foreclosures
www.mississauga4sale.com/Power-Sales-Bank-Sales-Alert-Request.htm

* If you have not already signed up to receive my monthly real estate
newsletter, you may do so here: On-Line Real Estate Newsletter sign up
www.mississauga4sale.com/popupquestion.htm

* See seasonal housing patterns
www.mississauga4sale.com/TREBprice.htm

* Would you like me to send you a desk or wall Calendar?
www.mississauga4sale.com/Calendar-Order-Form.htm