Showing posts with label housing-prices. Show all posts
Showing posts with label housing-prices. Show all posts

Wednesday, June 01, 2022

Bank of Canada increases prime rate 0.5% on June 1, 2022 Prime now 1.5%

The Bank of Canada raised its key interest rate by half a percentage point to 1.5% on Wednesday June 1, 2022

Bank Prime lending rates are now 3.7%

It's the 3rd half-point hike this calendar year in an attempt to slow our soaring inflation. 


This is a great article about the future of real estate in the GTA and how interest rates may be one of the factors that affect the real estate marketplace


Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) Average Prices and Graph

For more information please contact A. Mark Argentino

A. Mark Argentino, Broker, P.Eng.,
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc., Brokerage
2691 Credit Valley Road, Suite 101, Mississauga, Ontario L5M 7A1
BUS. 905-828-3434
FAX. 905-828-2829
E-MAIL: mark@mississauga4sale.com
Website: Mississauga4Sale.com

Friday, October 05, 2018

How does "affordability" (sales price + interest rate) influence market direction

Greetings from fabulous Mississauga!

I received a couple of insightful questions from an avid reader and thought I would share the questions and my thoughts on them

The questions were:

Mark,

I really enjoy receiving your emails with the latest POS properties and all the real estate information that you include.

I have a couple of questions:

     1. The average house price fluctuation we see on a yearly basis, is that price when the property is sold or is it the closing date? This would shift the cycle by a couple months depending.

      2. I can’t help wonder the influence of interest rates on price. I have a suspicion that “affordability” (sales price + interest rate) has a lot to do with the market direction? Have you ever graphed the house prices vs. interest rate?

Keep the great information flowing!!

Thanks again

BB

My answer was:

Hello BB

Thank you for your email.

Regarding your first point, the sold price is as of the date the property was sold, not the closing date.   

Your second point about the relationship between interest rates and prices is interesting.  I suspect here is a relationship, but not sure how closely one follows the other.  When rates increase it seems there is often a slight pause or lull in sales and then it continues again.  On the other hand, sometimes when rates go up there is a sudden surge in sales as the people who are pre-approved and locked into the lower rate end up purchasing.  When rates are trending downwards and there is a drop in the mortgage rate or an expected drop in rates, purchasers often go into a holding pattern waiting for rates to bottom out.   It really depends upon the “mood” of the market and which direction rates are going.  I’ll see what I can find with the numbers and let you know if I find a good relationship and high confidence value.

You also mention affordability and market direction.  Yes, I believe there is a relationship between these two factors too.  Again, there seems to be a tipping point where when rates and prices get too high, affordability becomes an issue and the market slows down.  The converse is also true.  I’ve found that the trend and the mood of the real estate marketplace and the press has more impact on the market direction than the actual numbers.  There are many instances of fear influencing the market far more than a change in interest rate or price.  When the government introduced the foreign buyers tax which ultimately affects less than 4% of all sales, our market collapsed.  Conversely, the fear of missing out on the rapid and sustained rise in prices caused many people to get into the market sooner than they otherwise would have (or should have) during many periods over the past 30 years.

Depending on where we are on the “Market Cycle”  greatly affects the marketplace.  To read more, see this page: http://www.mississauga4sale.com/Market-Emotions-Cycle.htm  I see that I need to update that page!

There are many more aspects to the real estate market that one can analyze. 

All very interesting factors to consider! J

Thank you,
Mark

Friday, August 25, 2017

Sales Bubble? Average GTA Prices and Sales volumes can seem confusing - I'll try and remove some of the confusion

I just received a question from a reader and thought I would share the question and my answer to you.

The question was:

Hello Mark,

I  was able to observe  some variances the monthly price statics in your website and other data sources as noted below.  Since you're a professional Engineer I am confident that you have much stronger quantitative skills than most realtors and was wondering if you could help me to reconcile some real estate pricing data? 

I am specifically referring to the the Oakville Milton and York Region pricing data.   



Regards,

G.

Hello G

Thank you for your email.

The Huffington Post article you are referring to below flips back and forth talking about volume of sales and sales prices.  Then at the end of the article they quote that prices are still up comparing July 2016 to July 2017 by 5.1%   I can see how this can seem confusing.

The chart they show are actual selling prices in the two areas, York and Oakville Milton.  The article states that the graphs are 'Residential Sales" and I'm assuming they are showing "only" detached home prices, not the overall average residential (which would include condos townhomes etc. I say this because I don't believe the average of ALL residential in Oakville and Milton in the spring was ever about $2.3Million.    Seems high for the 'average'  Regardless, I would say that the graphs are likely very accurate. 

You could write the author and ask where the data came from and what the actual data is showing.

You can see my graph of the data here:


It is similar to the data shown in the article.

My graph also shows a drop in the overall TREB average single family residential price from approximately $916k in March 2017 to $746k in July 2017 – a giant overall drop in average price.  This coincides with the seasonal summer slowdown period, so it's not quite as dramatic as you many think.  On the other hand, it's only the second time since January of 1995 that summer prices have dropped below the previous fall average prices – this signals a significant change in the marketplace.

It's not all doom and gloom, but it shows how quickly the market can turn.  We've seen this before in 1988/1989 and again in 2008/2009 - this could be a short blip in the market or a trend, only time will tell!

I hope this helps a little.

Please let me know if you have other questions

Thank you,
Mark

Wednesday, May 03, 2017

Toronto and GTA Residential Real Estate Marketplace update for May 2017 Strong Growth in New Listings in April

This is the May report from TREB for the month of April

See graph of sales prices by clicking the graph below




Strong Growth in New Listings in April

TORONTO, ONTARIO, May 3, 2017 – Toronto Real Estate Board President Larry Cerqua announced that Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® entered 33.6 per cent more new listings into TREB's MLS® System in April 2017, at 21,630, compared to the same month in 2016. New listings were up by double-digits for all low-rise home types, including detached and semi-detached houses and townhouses. New listings for condominium apartments were at the same level as last year.

Total sales for the TREB market area as a whole amounted to 11,630 – down 3.2 per cent year-over-year. One issue underlying this decline was the fact that Easter fell in April in 2017 versus March in 2016, which resulted in fewer working days this year compared to last and, historically, most sales are entered into TREB's MLS® System on working days.

"The fact that we experienced extremely strong growth in new listings in April means that buyers benefitted from considerably more choice in the marketplace. It is too early to tell whether the increase in new listings was simply due to households reacting to the strong double-digit price growth reported over the past year or if some of the increase was also a reaction to the Ontario government's recently announced Fair Housing Plan," said Mr. Cerqua.

The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite Benchmark Price was up by 31.7 per cent year over- year in April 2017. Similarly, the average selling price for all home types combined was up by 24.5 per cent to $920,791.

"It was encouraging to see a very strong year-over-year increase in new listings. If new listings growth continues to outpace sales growth moving forward, we will start to see more balanced market conditions. It will likely take a number of months to unwind the substantial pent-up demand that has built over the past two years. Expect annual rates of price growth to remain well-above the rate of inflation as we move through the spring and summer months," said Jason Mercer, TREB's Director of Market Analysis.


I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!
All the Best!
Mark
A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate

RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987

BUS 905-828-3434
FAX 905-828-2829  CELL 416-520-1577
mark@mississauga4sale.com

Mississauga4Sale.com


Sunday, January 24, 2016

Bank of Canada leaves key interest rate unchanged at 1/2%

Greetings from Fabulous Mississauga!
The Bank of Canada leaves key interest rate unchanged at 1/2% most anticipated interest rate announcement was on January 20, 2016 and the decision was that the Bank of Canada will be maintaining its overnight rate at 0.5%.  This means there will be no changes to prime rate. 
What does this mean to you, the consumer?  It's likely the major banks in Canada will leave their prime rates that they charge you at 2.70%
The last increase of the prime rate was September 2010 and this the longest stretch of no increase in history. 
Economists have been predicting that the prime rate will remain unchanged until sometime in 2016 and some even longer than that.  There are others who are predicting no change for 5 years or longer.
Many have been predicting the prime rate will increase 'next year' every year for the past 5 years now.
Personally, I believe that the low interest rates that we are currently experiencing are generational.  What I mean is that I predict we will see rates at or near their current levels up to about 5% for the next 15 years.  It's already been 5 years of low interest rates and it will likely remain this way for the next 15, a total of 20 years, a full generation!  That's my prediction.

You can still find discounts on variable rate mortgages as low as prime -0.5% with most banks offering about prime -0.10%. 
You can find 5 year fixed mortgages as low as 2.6% and even slightly lower sometimes.

I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!
All the Best!
Mark
A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate

RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987

BUS 905-828-3434
FAX 905-828-2829  CELL 416-520-1577
mark@mississauga4sale.com

Mississauga4Sale.com


Thursday, June 11, 2015

Million dollar homes in Canada are not as common as you think

Hello from Beautiful Mississauga!

I just read this article in the Financial Post, the million dollar homes are not as common as you would think

Enjoy!
Mark


The Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals has analyzed data of some 1,400 home sales over the past 27 months and reports the following:
  • Only 1 percent of homes across the country — including condos, semis and detached homes — sell for $1 million or more.
  • Only 2 percent of detached homes across the country sell for $1 million or more — and the vast majority, 83 percent, sell for under $500,000.
  • Only 3 percent of homes in Ontario — the province with the largest share of million-dollar homes — sell for $1 million or more.

 This graph below shows average prices in GTA for single family homes:
 Read more about average prices in the GTA
Even in Metro Vancouver, a city where buying real estate has been compared to gold hoarding, nearly 70 percent of all sales clock in below $800,000.

That is: The average detached home may now run you $1.4 million, but most people are buying townhouses, which average between $300,000 and $800,000, or condos, which tend to fetch between $200,000 and $600,000.


Read the entire article at this page: million-dollar homes are not the new normal.

I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!
All the Best!
Mark
A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate

RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987

BUS 905-828-3434
FAX 905-828-2829  CELL 416-520-1577
mark@mississauga4sale.com

Mississauga4Sale.com


Thursday, December 20, 2012

Predicting the GTA and Mississauga Real estate market is for fortune tellers and psychics!


Predicting the GTA and Mississauga real estate market future is for fortune tellers and psychics!

All we can really do is analyze the past markets, ascertain trends and historical data and look at what is currently happening to predict what 'may' happen in the future.

I've always said to my clients that I can only accurately predict about 2 to 4 weeks into the future.  That's it, much longer than that time period is more of a best guess.

Volume of sales has continued to be typical and strong, no major drop or trend downward for number of sales - more typcial for this time of year.

Our market average prices have softened since about Labour Day this year and condos seem to be the hardest hit. Prices are still dropping in the market and especially the condo market, not dramatically, but they are dropping.

This is in contrast to the unprecedented growth we have experienced for more than 15 years. The only interruption to that rise in prices was in the fall of 2008

You can clearly see the seasonal trends of prices increasing in the spring and fall at this graph See the Average Price Cycles from January 1995 to Date

The average price fluctuations are shown at this average price graph over the past few months.
Near historic lows for mortgage interest rates have helped.

I don't believe we were in a bubble but our prices were certainly over inflated. The rental market is still very tight. This is good news and indicates that people are working and that there is still a strong need for rental housing. If the rental market softens then our resale market will get hit much harder than it is right now. There are no signs of this happening in the near future and let's hope that our market turns around in the early part of 2013. Only time will tell.

Conclusion: our real estate market will continue to be healthy, prices will continue to drop in the near term, at least until the middle of January.  Check back in mid January to see what our market is doing at that time!
Thank you to all my current and past clients I wish you a Merry Christmas and All the Best to you and your family in 2013!

Mark






For more information please contact A. Mark Argentino

A. Mark Argentino, Broker, P.Eng.,
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc., Brokerage
2691 Credit Valley Road, Suite 101, Mississauga, Ontario L5M 7A1
BUS. 905-828-3434
FAX. 905-828-2829
E-MAIL: mark@mississauga4sale.com
Website: Mississauga4Sale.com
Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) Average Prices and Graph

Tuesday, May 22, 2012

Real Estate Predictions for the GTA marketplace

These are my observations of the current and future GTA and Mississauga Real Estate Marketplace.

Many are predicting a "market crash"

Many have been predicting we are in a bubble in the GTA for about the past 2 years or so. Certainly the market is overheated. There are many reasons for this.
*
Lack of supply and low interest rates have pushed up prices to record highs.
*
There is uneasiness in the economy, especially the USA and global areas.
*
The underlying economy doesn't support the rise in the market, we've drawn the people into the market due to low rates.
*
Consumer confidence is lower and so is the supply of listings, people are feeling a little less confident to move up, so this is the reason that the number of listings is down and has been down since 2009.
*
Once the job market and Europe and USA economies pick up then consumer confidence will improve and then they'll put more homes on the market and we should have a more balanced market.

The condo market is the area that I see softening a little over the next couple of year, many new buildings coming on stream and this may create a bit of a glut of condos on the market - prices for condos are already
softening. Once rates begin to rise, probably not until late next year, first time buyers will not be able to buy as much as they are now and the market should adjust somewhat.

This is what I see for the next 6 months or so:
1.
Prices will rise in the next few months due to high demand and low supply.
2.
Ownership should remain flat and fewer first time buyers on the market as the rates increase along with more listings thus slower price growth.
3.
There are considerable opportunities to purchase for long term price growth in some of the outlying areas, such as Brampton, Milton, Burlington and north Oakville. This would be similar to what we have seen in
Mississauga with price increases from the mid 90's to 2010 or so.
4.
I feel the condominium investor should be very cautious as we may see a pullback in prices which will help stabilize the marketplace.
5.
Thus, I don't see any "crash" in the marketplace, just a softening of prices, but not at least until the 3rd or 4th quarter this year.

I have been uneasy about the marketplace since about 2002 and we continue to see year over year price increases. The average price has increased for 17 years in a row, see the graph
<http://www.mississauga4sale.com/TREBavg1995date.htm> here and here
<http://www.mississauga4sale.com/TREBprice.htm#graph> , this makes me a little uneasy, but the fundamentals of the marketplace and the economy are far different compared to any time in the past.

I hope this helps you with your real estate decisions. You will have to make your own decision based upon your personal situation and how you feel about the marketplace, I know it's not easy.

Maybe you want an over the internet evaluation of your home just to give you an idea of your current value. We can do this with no obligation. Would you like a Complimentary
<http://www.mississauga4sale.com/internet-evaluation.htm> & Quick Over-The-Net Home Evaluation ?

Mark

Friday, April 06, 2012

Latest Toronto GTA real estate marketplace from the Toronto Real Estate Board April 2012

This is a summary of the latest GTA real estate marketplace from the Toronto Real Estate Board

Average price in March as $504,117 up 10% compared to March 2011 and volume of sale are up about 8%


See the graphs at my site


Read the full report below.

GTA REALTORS(r) Report Monthly Resale Housing Market Figures

Toronto, April 4, 2012 - Greater Toronto REALTORS(r) reported 9,690 sales through the TorontoMLS System in March 2012. This result was up by almost eight per cent in comparison to the 8,986 deals reported during the same period in 2011.

"The GTA resale market has not suffered from a lack of willing buyers this year. Buyers have been spurred on by the positive affordability picture brought about by low mortgage rates," said Toronto Real Estate Board President Richard Silver. "The challenge has been a lack of inventory. Many listings have attracted multiple interested buyers. Strong competition has led to annual rates of price growth well above the long-term average."

The average selling price in the GTA was $504,117 in March - up by 10.5 per cent in comparison to March 2011.

"The number of new listings was up last month in comparison to March 2011.



However, based on the historic relationship between price and listings, the GTA resale market should be better supplied. If competition between buyers remains as strong as it is right now, we will almost certainly see an average selling price above $500,000 for 2012 as a whole," said Jason Mercer, TREB's Senior Manager of Market Analysis.



I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!

All the Best!

Mark

A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987
BUS 905-828-3434
FAX 905-828-2829 CELL 416-520-1577
mark@mississauga4sale.com
Mississauga4Sale.com

* Thinking of selling your home in the next 3 to 6 months? Would you
like a Complimentary & Quick Over-The-Net Home Evaluation ?
www.mississauga4sale.com/internet-evaluation.htm


* Power of Sales and Foreclosures
www.mississauga4sale.com/Power-Sales-Bank-Sales-Alert-Request.htm


* If you have not already signed up to receive my monthly real estate
newsletter, you may do so here: On-Line Real Estate Newsletter sign up
www.mississauga4sale.com/popupquestion.htm


* See seasonal housing patterns
www.mississauga4sale.com/TREBprice.htm


* Would you like me to send you a desk or wall Calendar?
www.mississauga4sale.com/Calendar-Order-Form.htm

Friday, March 23, 2012

Mid-month report for March 2012 from TREB Real Estate

GTA REALTORS® Report Mid-Month Resale Housing Market Figures

TORONTO, March 19, 2012 –During the first 14 days of March, Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 4,215 transactions through the TorontoMLS system, representing a seven per cent increase compared to the same period in 2011. The number of new listings was down by two per cent year-over-year to 6,970.


“Home buyers continue to benefit from the affordable housing situation in the GTA. Immigration to Toronto and surrounding areas adds to the pool of home buyers every year. The economic and ethnic diversity found in the GTA consistently attracts newcomers and foreign investment,” said Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) President Richard Silver.


The average selling price for transactions between March 1 and 14 was $502,155 – up by more than nine per cent compared to the first 14 days of March 2011. On average, homes sold for 100 per cent of the asking price within three weeks.


“Strong competition between home buyers in many parts of the GTA has resulted in sellers realizing their asking price in a short period of time. The fact that homes are selling for 100 per cent of the asking price, on average, suggests that sellers are very much in tune with the current market situation and know the fair market value of their home,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Senior Manager of Market Analysis











Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) Average Prices and Graph

For more information please contact A. Mark Argentino

A. Mark Argentino, Broker, P.Eng.,
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc., Brokerage
2691 Credit Valley Road, Suite 101, Mississauga, Ontario L5M 7A1
BUS. 905-828-3434
FAX. 905-828-2829
E-MAIL: mark@mississauga4sale.com
Website: Mississauga4Sale.com

Average Housing Prices for Major cities across Canada


CMHC published a report showing the average MLS price in each major city in Canada for 2010, see the image below:


























Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) Average Prices and Graph



For more information please contact A. Mark Argentino

A. Mark Argentino, Broker, P.Eng.,
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc., Brokerage
2691 Credit Valley Road, Suite 101, Mississauga, Ontario L5M 7A1
BUS. 905-828-3434
FAX. 905-828-2829
E-MAIL: mark@mississauga4sale.com
Website: Mississauga4Sale.com

Tuesday, March 06, 2012

GTA real estate market has tight market that pushes the average price above $500K in Toronto

This is the latest from the Toronto Real Estate Board


Tight Market Pushes the Average Price above $500K TORONTO

March 5, 2012

Greater Toronto REALTORS(r) reported 7,032 sales in February 2012 - up 16 per cent compared to February 2011.

New listings were also up over the same period, but by a lesser 11 per cent to 12,684. It is important to note that 2012 is a leap year, with one more day in February.

Over the first 28 days of February, sales and new listings were up by ten per cent and six per cent respectively. "With slightly more than two months of inventory in the Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) market area, on average, it is not surprising that competition between buyers has exerted very strong upward pressure on the average selling price.

Price growth will continue to be very strong until the market becomes better supplied," said Toronto Real Estate Board President Richard Silver. "It is
important to note that both buyers and sellers are aware of current market conditions.

This is evidenced by the fact that homes sold, on average, for 99 per cent of the asking price in February," continued Silver.

The average selling price in the TREB market area was $502,508 in February - up 11 per cent compared to February 2011.

The Composite MLS(r) Home Price Index for TREB, which provides a less volatile measure of price growth compared to the average price, was up by 7.3 per cent compared February 2011.

"If tight market conditions continue to result in higher than expected price growth as we move into the spring, expectations for 2012 as a whole will have to be revised upwards," said Jason Mercer, TREB's Senior Manager of Market Analysis.

"While price growth remains strong, the average selling price remains affordable from a mortgage lending perspective for a household earning the average income in the GTA."

Read more and see graphs of prices at this page

I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!

All the Best!

Mark

I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!

All the Best!

Mark

A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987
BUS 905-828-3434
FAX 905-828-2829 CELL 416-520-1577
mark@mississauga4sale.com
Mississauga4Sale.com

* Thinking of selling your home in the next 3 to 6 months? Would you
like a Complimentary & Quick Over-The-Net Home Evaluation ?
www.mississauga4sale.com/internet-evaluation.htm


* Power of Sales and Foreclosures
www.mississauga4sale.com/Power-Sales-Bank-Sales-Alert-Request.htm


* If you have not already signed up to receive my monthly real estate
newsletter, you may do so here: On-Line Real Estate Newsletter sign up
www.mississauga4sale.com/popupquestion.htm


* See seasonal housing patterns
www.mississauga4sale.com/TREBprice.htm


* Would you like me to send you a desk or wall Calendar?
www.mississauga4sale.com/Calendar-Order-Form.htm

Monday, March 05, 2012

TREB Real Estate latest figures show very healthy GTA real estate marketplace

GTA REALTORS® RELEASE RESALE MONTHLY MARKET FIGURES



Toronto, March 5, 2012 – Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 7,032 sales in February 2012 – up 16 per cent compared to February 2011. New listings were also up over the same period, but by a lesser 11 per cent to 12,684. It is important to note that 2012 is a leap year, with one more day in February. Over the first 28 days of February, sales and new listings were up by ten per cent and six per cent respectively.



“With slightly more than two months of inventory in the Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) market area, on average, it is not surprising that competition between buyers has exerted very strong upward pressure on the average selling price. Price growth will continue to be very strong until the market becomes better supplied,” said Toronto Real Estate Board President Richard Silver.



“It is important to note that both buyers and sellers are aware of current market conditions. This is evidenced by the fact that homes sold, on average, for 99 per cent of the asking price in February,” continued Silver.



The average selling price in the TREB market area was $502,508 in February – up 11 per cent compared to February 2011. The Composite MLS® Home Price Index for TREB, which provides a less volatile measure of price growth compared to the average price, was up by 7.3 per cent compared February 2011.




“If tight market conditions continue to result in higher than expected price growth as we move into the spring, expectations for 2012 as a whole will have to be revised upwards,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Senior Manager of Market Analysis. “While price growth remains strong, the average selling price remains affordable from a mortgage lending perspective for a household earning the average income in the GTA.”



Summary of TorontoMLS Sales and Average Price




Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) Average Prices and Graph

For more information please contact A. Mark Argentino

A. Mark Argentino, Broker, P.Eng.,
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc., Brokerage
2691 Credit Valley Road, Suite 101, Mississauga, Ontario L5M 7A1
BUS. 905-828-3434
FAX. 905-828-2829
E-MAIL: mark@mississauga4sale.com
Website: Mississauga4Sale.com

Saturday, February 18, 2012

TD Canada Trust latest Economic News - February 17, 2012

This is the latest news from TD Canada Trust about Candian home sales,
interesting reading indeed!
Mark

Data Release: Canadian home resales lower in January


The number of Canadian home resales fell by 4.5% in January on a seasonally-adjusted basis. This was the first monthly decline in five months, and the largest since July 2010. Still, the January resale

level is slightly above the monthly average observed in 2011.


Regionally, the January drop in resales was especially marked in Greater Toronto and Montreal.


Overall, there were declines in over half of all local markets.


Despite the volume decline, average resale prices rebounded 1.6% in January (seasonally adjusted) following a similar decline in December 2011. Prices rose both in Toronto (+3.8%) and Vancouver

(+2.7%).


Key Implications


Canada's housing market was firming up during the second half of 2011, due in large part to the relative stability of the Canadian economy, steady consumer confidence and historically low interest rates.


This month's decline is likely reflective of what will shape up to be a softer year in sales, especially when it comes to Toronto and Vancouver condos. We anticipate growth will slow down in 2012 both in terms of sale volumes (+0.5%) and prices (+2.5%). In contrast, the actual
correction is foreseen to start in 2013, with both resales and prices turning negative.


This forecast is in line with the timing of interest rate increases, which we expect will start to take hold in 2013.


I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!

All the Best!

Mark

A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987
BUS 905-828-3434
FAX 905-828-2829 CELL 416-520-1577
mark@mississauga4sale.com
Mississauga4Sale.com

* Thinking of selling your home in the next 3 to 6 months? Would you
like a Complimentary & Quick Over-The-Net Home Evaluation ?
www.mississauga4sale.com/internet-evaluation.htm


* Power of Sales and Foreclosures
www.mississauga4sale.com/Power-Sales-Bank-Sales-Alert-Request.htm


* If you have not already signed up to receive my monthly real estate
newsletter, you may do so here: On-Line Real Estate Newsletter sign up
www.mississauga4sale.com/popupquestion.htm


* See seasonal housing patterns
www.mississauga4sale.com/TREBprice.htm


* Would you like me to send you a desk or wall Calendar?
www.mississauga4sale.com/Calendar-Order-Form.htm

Thursday, February 16, 2012

Sales for the first half of February up by more than 9% compared to the same period last year Toronto Real Estate Board









Below is the latest report from the Toronto Real Estate Board regarding the sales for the first half of February, up by more than 9% compared to the same period last year.




GTA REALTORS(r) Report Mid-Month Resale Housing Market Figures


Toronto, February 16, 2012 - Greater Toronto REALTORS(r) reported 3,206 sales through the TorontoMLS(r) system through the first 14 days of February 2012 - up by more than nine per cent compared to the 2,933 sales reported during the same period in 2011. New listings were up by 13 per cent over the same period.


"The GTA resale home market became better supplied during the first 14 days of February. If growth in new listings continues to outstrip growth in sales this year, competition between home buyers will ease. More balanced market conditions on a sustained basis would result in a lower annual rates of price growth later in 2012," said Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) President
Richard Silver.


The average selling price during the first 14 days of February was $491,493 - up by nine per cent compared to the first 14 days of February 2011. On average, sellers received 99 per cent of their asking price and their homes were on the market for an average of 25 days.


"Both buyers and sellers are aware of the substantial competition that exists for most listings in the GTA. There is not a mismatch in expectations, so homes sell quickly at close to the asking price," said Jason Mercer, TREB's Senior Manager of Market Analysis.


I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!


All the Best!


Mark


A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987
BUS 905-828-3434
FAX 905-828-2829 CELL 416-520-1577
mark@mississauga4sale.com
Mississauga4Sale.com


* Thinking of selling your home in the next 3 to 6 months? Would you
like a Complimentary & Quick Over-The-Net Home Evaluation ?
www.mississauga4sale.com/internet-evaluation.htm



* Power of Sales and Foreclosures
www.mississauga4sale.com/Power-Sales-Bank-Sales-Alert-Request.htm



* If you have not already signed up to receive my monthly real estate
newsletter, you may do so here: On-Line Real Estate Newsletter sign up
www.mississauga4sale.com/popupquestion.htm



* See seasonal housing patterns
www.mississauga4sale.com/TREBprice.htm



* Would you like me to send you a desk or wall Calendar?
www.mississauga4sale.com/Calendar-Order-Form.htm

Thursday, February 09, 2012

Canada's Housing Market in 2012 - bubble or balloon?

A client of mine just sent me this Great article below about Canada's Housing Market


I've been worried about a bubble or a balloon in our local market since about 2003 when many of us thought "prices can't go higher" and sure enough they just kept marching upward.

Since I've been plugged into the real estate market and prices since the early 80's it's difficult for me to comprehend after a rise each year since 1995 of 6 to 10% that prices can continue to escalate. It is the opposite of the old school thinking of 7 year economic cycles that we used to experience and intuitively, we all know that prices cannot continue to rise indefinitely.

So where is the peak? Nobody knows for sure, but I don't think we are there yet in the GTA

It's a little disconcerting to see prices so high. If interest rates begin to increase, as they are suggesting by the beginning of 2013 then it could start a slowdown.

In Toronto we lack listings. There has been a low amount of listings since January of 2009 and the demand just keeps on increasing, hence the multiple offers on properties that are priced well.

We are looking to purchase a bungalow in an average area of Oakville, one was listed on Monday this week for $579,900 and it sold firm by Wednesday for $620,000 I heard there were 11 offers, silly!

Any worry is as the article below states "Vancouver's ratio of home prices to incomes is the highest in the English-speaking world" and that is some cause for concern.

I was surprised to read that Toronto is building more than 75 skyscrapers compared to New York, they just don't seem to be able to build condos fast enough in Toronto for the past decade or so.

Time will tell what happens with the market. Personally, I don't see interest rates rising much more than .5% by the end of 2013 and I don't see a plethora of listings coming on the market either for the next 3 to 6 months, this only means that demand will eat up any new supply and prices will likely continue to increase for at least the next 3 to 6 months in the GTA.

All the best!
Mark











Canada's Housing Market









Look out below









After years of lecturing America about loose lending, Canada now must
confront a bubble of its own









Feb 4th 2012 TORONTO from the print edition








*


























IN FEW corners of the world would a car park squeezed between two arms of an
elevated highway be seen as prime real estate. In Toronto, however, a
75-storey condominium is planned for such an awkward site, near the
waterfront. The car park next door will become a pair of 70-storey towers
too. In total, 173 sky-scrapers are being built in Toronto, the most in
North America. New York is second with 96.








When the United States saw a vast housing bubble inflate and burst during
the 2000s, many Canadians felt smug about the purported prudence of their
financial and property markets. During the crash, Canadian house prices fell
by just 8%, compared with more than 30% in America. They hit new record
highs by 2010. "Canada was not a part of the problem," Stephen Harper, the
prime minister, boasted in 2010.








Today the consensus is growing on Bay Street, Toronto's answer to Wall
Street, that Mr Harper may have to eat his words. In response to America's
slow economic recovery and uncertainty in Europe, the Bank of Canada has
kept interest rates at record lows. Five-year fixed-rate mortgages now
charge interest of just 2.99%. In response, Canadians have sought
ever-bigger loans for ever-costlier homes. The country's house prices have
doubled since 2002.








Speculators are pouring into the property markets in Toronto and Vancouver.
"We have foreign investors who are purchasing two, three, four, five
properties," says Michael Thompson, who heads Toronto's economic-development
committee. Last month a modest Toronto home put on the market for C$380,000
($381,500) sold for C$570,000, following a bidding war among 31 prospective
buyers. According to Demographia, a consultancy, Vancouver's ratio of home
prices to incomes is the highest in the English-speaking world.

































Bankers are becoming alarmed. Mark Carney, the governor of the central bank,
has been warning for years that Canadians are consuming beyond their means.
The bosses of banks with big mortgage businesses, including CIBC, Royal Bank
of Canada and the Bank of Montreal, have all said the housing market is at
or near its peak. Canada's ratio of household debt to disposable income has
risen by 40% in the past decade, recently surpassing America's (see chart).
And its ratio of house prices to income is now 30% above its historical
average-less than, say, Ireland's excesses (which reached 70%), but high
enough to expect a drop. A recent report from Bank of America said Canada
was "showing many of the signs of a classic bubble".








The consequences of such a bubble bursting are hard to predict. On the one
hand, high demand for Canada's commodity exports could cushion the blow from
a housing bust. And since banks have recourse to all of a borrower's assets,
and Canadian lending standards are stricter than America's were, a decline
in house prices would probably not wreck the banks as it did in the United
States.








However, the Canadian economy is still dependent on the consumer. Fears
about the global economy have slowed business investment, and all levels of
government are bent on austerity. The Conservative government's next budget
is expected to put forward a plan to close the federal deficit, now 2% of
GDP, by 2015-modest austerity compared to Europe's, but still a drag on the
economy. Few new jobs are being created. Assuming there is no setback in
Europe's debt crunch, slowdown in America or drop in commodity prices, GDP
is forecast to grow by a meagre 2% this year. If consumers start feeling
less well off, Canada could slip back into recession.








The inevitable landing will probably be soft. Increases in house prices and
sales volumes are slowing, and the 2015 Pan American Games in Toronto should
prop up builders. "The national housing market is more like a balloon than a
bubble," says a report by the Bank of Montreal. "While bubbles always burst,
a balloon often deflates slowly in the absence of a 'pin'."








Moreover, the government is trying to cool the market. The banking regulator
is increasing its scrutiny of housing in response to concerns about
speculators. The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, a government
mortgage-insurance agency, says it will have to start reducing its new
coverage because of legal limits. And the finance ministry has cut the
maximum term of publicly insured mortgages from 35 years to 30. Some bank
managers are calling for it to be reduced to 25, the historical norm.
Canada's reputation for financial sobriety is not entirely unwarranted.








However, the state has refused to use its most powerful tool. To protect
business investment, the central bank has made clear that it plans to keep
interest rates low. As long as money stays cheap, the balloon could get
bigger-perhaps big enough to become a fully fledged bubble after all.








from the print edition The Americas

Tuesday, February 07, 2012

Basement Apartments are now legal in Ontario due to Bill 140

Another huge change in Ontario that was just announced is in Bill 140 which has one change in housing.

From now onwards, if a property meets building code and Fire Safety standards, you can legalize any second dwelling in a single family home.

This means that basement apartments have become legal again and this will allow many people who can't afford to purchase a home to get into the market because they can earn income from a basement apartment, legally.

This means the banks will give a mortgage partly based upon current or expected income from the basement apartment and this means that demand will increase and prices will likely follow!


Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) Average Prices and Graph

For more information please contact A. Mark Argentino

A. Mark Argentino, Broker, P.Eng.,
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc., Brokerage
2691 Credit Valley Road, Suite 101, Mississauga, Ontario L5M 7A1
BUS. 905-828-3434
FAX. 905-828-2829
E-MAIL: mark@mississauga4sale.com
Website: Mississauga4Sale.com

Monday, February 06, 2012

Prices up about 9% Toronto Real Estate Board January housing figures in the GTA

This is the brief summary of the Toronto Real Estate Board on January housing figures in the GTA

Prices are up about 9% compared to January 2011

Read more below

For all the graphs and details see:

http://www.mississauga4sale.com/TREBprice.htm



GTA REALTORS(r) RELEASE MONTHLY MARKET FIGURES

Greater Toronto REALTORS(r) reported 4,567 sales through the TorontoMLS(r) system in January 2012.

This number was 8.8 per cent higher than the 4,199 sales reported in January 2011.

Sales growth was strongest for low-rise home types in the regions surrounding the City of Toronto. "A favourable affordability picture bolstered by very low posted fixed mortgage rates has kept home buyers confident in their ability to achieve the Canadian goal of home ownership,"
said Toronto Real Estate Board President Richard Silver. "The buyer pool remains diverse in the GTA with strong interest in home types across the pricing spectrum," continued Silver.

The average selling price for January 2012 transactions was $463,534 - up by almost nine per cent compared to January 2011.

"Low inventory levels have kept competition between buyers strong, resulting in robust annual rates of price growth over the last year. Strong price growth is expected to attract more listings.

A better supplied market should result in a slower rate of price growth, especially in the second half of 2012," said Jason Mercer, the Toronto Real Estate Board's Senior Manager of Market Analysis.


I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!

All the Best!

Mark

A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987
BUS 905-828-3434
FAX 905-828-2829 CELL 416-520-1577
mark@mississauga4sale.com
Mississauga4Sale.com

* Thinking of selling your home in the next 3 to 6 months? Would you
like a Complimentary & Quick Over-The-Net Home Evaluation ?
www.mississauga4sale.com/internet-evaluation.htm


* Power of Sales and Foreclosures
www.mississauga4sale.com/Power-Sales-Bank-Sales-Alert-Request.htm


* If you have not already signed up to receive my monthly real estate
newsletter, you may do so here: On-Line Real Estate Newsletter sign up
www.mississauga4sale.com/popupquestion.htm


* See seasonal housing patterns
www.mississauga4sale.com/TREBprice.htm


* Would you like me to send you a desk or wall Calendar?
www.mississauga4sale.com/Calendar-Order-Form.htm

Wednesday, January 11, 2012

This is the report for latest month in real estate sales from the Toronto real estate board and indicates a 'normal' amount of activity and price levels.

You will find all the latest figures and graphs summarizing last years real
estate market at this page:

http://www.mississauga4sale.com/TREBprice.htm

This is the report for latest month in real estate sales from the Toronto
real estate board and indicates a 'normal' amount of activity and price
levels.

All the best!
Mark


The year end figures for GTA residential home sales were just published.
2011 was the second best year on record with nearly 90,000 sales up about 4%
compared to 2010

Average price for 2011 was $465,412 up about 8% compared to the 2010 average
of $431,276

See the full press release below and I will update all my graphs and
information on my website at http://www.mississauga4sale.com/TREBprice.htm
in the next couple of days.

I wish you all the best in 2012!

Mark

Thursday, January 05, 2012

8 Per Cent Price Increase for Toronto and GTA residential home sales for 2011

The year end figures for GTA residential home sales were just published.
2011 was the second best year on record with nearly 90,000 sales up about 4% compared to 2010

Average price for 2011 was $465,412 up about 8% compared to the 2010 average of $431,276

See the full press release below and I will update all my graphs and information on my website at http://www.mississauga4sale.com/TREBprice.htm in the next couple of days.

I wish you all the best in 2012!

Mark





GTA REALTORS(r) RELEASE MONTHLY RESALE MARKET FIGURES

TORONTO, January 5, 2012 - Greater Toronto REALTORS(r) reported 4,718
transactions through the TorontoMLS(r) system in December 2011. The December
result capped off the second-best year on record under the current Toronto
Real Estate Board (TREB) boundaries. Total sales for 2011 amounted to 89,347
- up four per cent in comparison to 2010.

"Low borrowing costs kept Buyers confident in their ability to comfortably
cover their mortgage payments along with other major housing costs," said
TREB President Richard Silver. "If Buyers had not been constrained by a
shortage of listings over the past 12 months, we would have been flirting
with a new sales record in the Greater Toronto Area," added Silver.

The average selling price in December was $451,436 - up four per cent
compared to December 2010. For all of 2011, the average selling price was
$465,412, an increase of eight per cent in comparison to the average of
$431,276 in 2010.

"Months of inventory remained below the pre-recession norm in 2011. Very
tight market conditions meant substantial competition between Buyers and
strong upward pressure on selling prices," said Jason Mercer, TREB's Senior
Manager of Market Analysis.


"TREB's baseline forecast for 2012 is for an average price of $485,000,
representing a more moderate four per cent annual rate of price growth. This
baseline view is subject to a heightened degree of risk given the uncertain
global economic outlook," continued Mercer. Summary of TorontoMLS(r) Sales
and Average Price


December 1-31

2011

2010


Sales

Ave. Price

Sales

Ave. Price


City of Toronto "416"

1,948

$474,270

1,818

$463,580


Rest of GTA "905"

2,770

$435,378

2,468

$411,383


GTA

4,718

$451,436

4,286

$433,523


TorontoMLS(r) Sales & Average Price By Home Type


December 1-31, 2011

Sales

Ave. Price


416

905

Total

416

905

Total


Detached

581

1,512

2,093

701,846

525,360

574,351


Yr./Yr. % Change

4%

12%

10%

3%

4%

3%


Semi-Detached

202

289

491

517,152

365,417

427,842


Yr./Yr. % Change

20%

12%

15%

10%

9%

10%


Townhouse

199

517

716

372,164

333,359

344,144


Yr./Yr. % Change

3%

20%

15%

-7%

8%

2%


Condo Apartment

943

363

1,306

351,104

275,173

330,000


Yr./Yr. % Change

7%

-3%

4%

3%

9%

5%