Friday, January 28, 2011

Canadian Real Estate Predictions for 2011

Below are the real estate predictions from Canada Realty News for 2011 in Canada. They are quite optimistic, probably the reason I like their predictions. They are predicting that prices will hold steady in light of a 7% decline in home sales. The complete release is below.

I believe that for the GTA real estate marketplace we will see a 4 to 6% increase in prices. Sales will be down because people just don't seem to be moving as frequently as there were a few years ago.

I wish you all the best!

2011 Canadian Real Estate Market Forecast and Prediction

According to many real estate experts, the Canadian housing market is expected to stabilize in 2011 returning to more normal long-term growth patterns after a decade-long bull run.

The housing sector has avoided two extreme bubble-and-crash scenarios over the past three years when resale prices dropped sharply in 2008, then quickly rebounded as low mortgage rates and lower prices supported the turnaround.

Record low interest rates fuelled a home buying spree in 2009 that helped pull the Canadian economy out of recession and pushed home sales back to record levels. The market cooled rapidly over the summer of 2010 as the Bank of Canada began hiking interest rates, though recent data have indicated the market may be stabilizing.

In 2011, interest rates are expected to hike further as the economy improves. While still at historical lows, any hike in interest rates have big effects on mortgage rates. If interest rates are raised too quickly, this will further dampen real estate prices. On the other hand, if the
government decides to lower the rates once again, as unlikely as this may seem, then home sales might surge slightly.

Government and institutional lending policies will also affect real estate prices. As banks and governmental policies become increasingly strict, more people will be turned down for mortgages. At the very least these potential home buyers will need to choose from more modest homes if their mortgage is declined.

In 2011, Canada will experience an overall decline of 0.9% in home prices.

Not all provinces will feel the effects of fluctuating real estate prices equally. Some provinces will have a more profound move in housing prices than others.

While real estate prices might remain fairly stable, buying activity is expected to slow down significantly. The Canadian Real Estate Association expects a 7.3% decline in home sales. This means that homeowners in a panic to sell may have to drop their prices substantially in order to liquidate.

Others may need to wait longer than in previous years to sell.

The drop-off in home sales comes from an anticipated slowing of economic growth along with a reduction in consumer spending. Less free floating capital means fewer large purchases. Ample inventory levels, steady demand, and moderate growth, both in terms of sales and prices, will characterize the market in 2011.

Is it a Good Time to Buy a Home in Canada?

Timing the market perfectly is a difficult task. Often it is easier to look at one's income and decide if the stability of personal finances are adequate to acquire a house for the long term. If not, there is no shame in renting or leasing until circumstances permit such a purchase. But trying to perfectly time a house purchase with the market is like trying to buy a stock at its lowest point before a rebound - very difficult indeed.

Copyright (c) 2010 Canada Realty News(tm). All Rights Reserved.
The material in this publication is provided for your informational purpose only and is not intended to substitute professional advice. If your property is currently listed with a Real Estate Broker, this publication is not intended as a solicitation

I hope this finds you Happy and Healthy!

All the Best!


A. Mark Argentino
P. Eng. Broker
Specializing in Residential & Investment Real Estate
RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc.
Providing Full-Time Professional Real Estate Services since 1987
BUS 905-828-3434
FAX 905-828-2829 CELL 416-520-1577

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  1. How could prices rise in this environment? The government has effectively shrunk the pool of credit available for real estate by marginalizing potential buyers. You cant draw a straight line based on the past.

  2. Thanks for the insight. I hope your prediction rings true about the stabilization in Canada.

  3. Hello munmun, Yes, I can understand how you may feel about the newer restrictions upon buyers and that what's happened in the past is not necessarily a predictor of the future, but it appears there is still a huge amount of demand in the GTA marketplace and there are few listings coming on the market. This has been the case for about 2 years now. I remember the last bottom of the market, that was January of 2009 and we've had fewer listings to choose from ever since.
    I'm concerned that we've entered a 'new era' in real estate in the GTA, that is, people are no longer trading up or down or buying and selling with the frequency that they did since 1995. Thus, we are into period of long term low inventories and steadily increasing prices. I don't see any 'surge' of new listings coming on the market anytime soon.
    Thanks again for your comments.

  4. At least these kinds of prospective household potential buyers will need to decide on additional small residences if their house loan is diminished.