Monday, September 22, 2008

RBC comments on Canadian and US interest rates

Interest rate forecasts for Canada and U.S. lowered slightly

We have rebenchmarked our interest rate forecasts for the remainder of 2008 while maintaining our calls that the Bank of Canada and the Fed will hold policy rates steady for the remainder of the year. We now see the yield on the two-year Canadian government bond ending the quarter at 3.10% and the 10-year yield at 3.75%, lower than our previous call for these yields to end the quarter at 3.50% and 3.90% respectively. The spate of weakerthan- expected data, which pushed yields well below July’s levels, made our earlier forecasts unlikely to be reached.

Similarly, we have reduced our forecasts for end of September two-year U.S .Treasuries to 2.55% (from 2.90%) and the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.05% from 4.30%.

Our year-end forecasts for Canadian two-year and 10-year bonds stand at 3.3% and 4%, respectively, with the two-year U.S. Treasury bond yield expected to finish the year at 2.65% and the 10-year at 4.40%.

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