Economic data point to a U.S. recession
Economic activity data are increasingly suggesting that the U.S. economy has slipped into recession. Data reports have underperformed forecasters' modest expectations across the board with another month of slumping home sales and record price declines.
September's labour market report was much weaker than expected with payrolls dropping. The ISM manufacturing report for September was also soft. The headline index dropped well below the 50-mark to 43.5, indicating sharply declining activity in the sector, while August consumer spending data showed a marked slowing in the third quarter as the impact from fiscal stimulus faded.
The monthly reports signal that the U.S. economy likely contracted in the third quarter with a more marked weakening expected in the fourth.
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A. Mark Argentino
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