Monday, March 08, 2010

Bank of Canada prime rate predictions and expectations

Last week, the Bank of Canada decided to leave the bank prime rate at 0.25%

It would be almost expected that the prime interest rate will increase by about 25 to 50 basis points by September and maybe even during their next meeting in July 20 by 25 points and then again in September by 25 points.

The 'experts' are saying will be up a whole 1 percentage by the end of this year.

This means that if your mortgage is coming due sometime this year, you may wish to renew sooner rather than later if you want to lock in at today's rates.

Personally, I am staying short term for the next few years. The reason is that as long as I have a mortgage that is prime minus .25% or so, then the variable rate must increase to at least about 5% before my mortgage rate is equal to the current 3 to 5 year rate. This may take more than 2 or 3 years to happen and I will benefit during that period with a lower rate rather than locking in today.

Even if the prime consumer lending rate increases from the current 2.25% to 4.5% or higher in 2 years from now I am still ahead of the game. If it rises to 5.5% in 3 years, I believe there will be rate specials offered in the marketplace and I will still be able to achieve in the mid to high 4% range in 3 or 4 years from today. This all means that I am still better to stay short and with the variable rate from now for at least the next few years.

You may feel differently, and only time will tell, but I believe that this will save me money in the long run.

All the best!



  1. Mark

    Your article is very interesting and I sure will follow your path. I am in the process of buying a property and was a littel unsure as to what to do but your article has given ne some light.


  2. The best deal they could make is to have the 0.25% interest a lifetime offer.